vpFREE2 Forums

Vulturing in General

#1

Mickey, your bet could be a hustle, doesn't prove anything and you should know better. As an example take a coin where you have a 49% of winning a toss and a 51% of losing. Let's say you're using a martingale method of gambling where on your first toss you wager $500, if you win you're up $500 and you collect your bet. If you lose you bet $1000 on the next toss. If you win that toss you're up $500 and you collect your bet. If you lose you bet $2000 on the next toss (we'll say you now reached the house limit). If you win that toss you're up $500 and you collect your bet. If you lose you give up, you're down $3500 and you lose your bet. Just on the coin flip part of your wager your expectation is (((1-((0.51)**3))*500)-3500*((0.51**3))) = -$30.604. Let's say you're also betting $500 on wether you can win $500. Because you're getting "even money" on your side bet your overall expectancy for both the coin flip and the side wager goes to -30.604+(500*(((1-((0.51)**3)-(0.51**3))) = $336.745.

···

Sent from my iPhone

#2

OK NOW I know who Mickey was referring to. LOL I think MC's issue is not the W2 but rather if the bar has to call someone to cash out his win or they have it in the til.

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#3

I wouldn't be using any shennanigans against him. I would just be using legitimate strategy and all available information. And I promised not to be using any martingale type betting-that would go against what I'm trying to prove to him anyway. I would beat him over the head with stuff like this:

I've already showed you screen shots of Jackpot Rocket. On my last road trip I found this little jewel of a play:

Imgur: The most awesome images on the Internet http://www.imgur.com/5F0QDie

http://www.imgur.com/5F0QDie

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   None of these meters would be worth going after individually. The 4 out of 7 meter is at $119 and the countdown is 90. With a frequency of 19.16 the expectation would be to play about 1700 games to take the meter off but the play would only be about 95%.

The 5/7 meter is at $221 and the countdown is at 21. With a frequency of 115.76 the expectation would be to play about 2400 games to take the meter off but it would be only about a 98% play.

But combined these two meters are worth going after. It would be about a $100 earn for about an hour's seat time.

The 6/7 meter is at $511 and the countdown is 3. Just playing to hit 3 six out of sevens would be about a $70 loser on paper. It would be a strong play if the countdown were 2 or 1. But since I figure to play about 2400 games to take the bottom two meters off, I'm freerolling to knocking the countdown down to 2, 1, or zero. If I knock it down to at least a 2 then it's a straight through play until I snap off all three meters.

next post....

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#4

The 5/7 meter was sitting on exactly $221. It runs at 1% and its a fifty cent bet. So every dollar I put in that meter represents 200 games I played. This is the meter I used to count how many games I played. At 800 games in I hit a 6/7:

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http://www.imgur.com/hsGA4uT

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At 1500 games in I had the countdown on the 4/7 down to 1. At that point I was $188 stuck. But after hitting the next 4/7 I was only $67 stuck.

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At 1600 games in I hit another 6/7. You can see that the 4/7 meter is no longer in play. Then I was just after the 5/7 meter and the 5/7 meter.

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At 2400 games in I took of the 5/7 meter. At that point I was $95 in the black, about expectation.

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At 4500 games in I took off the 6/7 meter. It was time to cash out and find another play. You can see I had $609 in credits on the machine. Since I was $200 in, after the tip I netted $400 on the play.

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http://www.imgur.com/fu8A5Xa

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Did I get lucky anywhere in this play. No, everything came off at about expectation. The 4/7 came off at about 1600 games where the expectation was 1700. The 5/7 came off at 2400 games which was about expectation. The 6/7 came off at 4500 games, about 400 games longer than expectation. So everything came off at about expectation and the earn was about at expectation.

This is the type of stuff I would be doing in the challenge. Finding and exploiting temporary advantages. Nothing but legitimate strategy and all available information.

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#5

no explanation needed mr crimm, some people just do not understand hustling a play or they feel the need to be a critic.
Sad that dont see you "get it" and they can learn from you as i and others have.
But you know there are people if they found a dollar bill on the ground would whine that have to bend over to pick it up or that it was not in dimes . :wink:
MJ

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On Saturday, December 19, 2015 8:11 AM, "mickeycrimm@yahoo.com [vpFREE]" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 I wouldn&#39;t be using any shennanigans against him\. I would just be using legitimate strategy and all available information\. And I promised not to be using any martingale type betting\-that would go against what I&#39;m trying to prove to him anyway\. I would beat him over the head with stuff like this:

I've already showed you screen shots of Jackpot Rocket. On my last road trip I found this little jewel of a play:

Imgur: The most awesome images on the Internet http://www.imgur.com/5F0QDie

http://www.imgur.com/5F0QDie

Imgur: The most awesome images on the Internet http://www.imgur.com/5F0QDie Imgur: The most awesome images on the Internet.

View on www.imgur.com http://www.imgur.com/5F0QDie
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None of these meters would be worth going after individually. The 4 out of 7 meter is at $119 and the countdown is 90. With a frequency of 19.16 the expectation would be to play about 1700 games to take the meter off but the play would only be about 95%.

The 5/7 meter is at $221 and the countdown is at 21. With a frequency of 115.76 the expectation would be to play about 2400 games to take the meter off but it would be only about a 98% play.

But combined these two meters are worth going after. It would be about a $100 earn for about an hour's seat time.

The 6/7 meter is at $511 and the countdown is 3. Just playing to hit 3 six out of sevens would be about a $70 loser on paper. It would be a strong play if the countdown were 2 or 1. But since I figure to play about 2400 games to take the bottom two meters off, I'm freerolling to knocking the countdown down to 2, 1, or zero. If I knock it down to at least a 2 then it's a straight through play until I snap off all three meters.

next post....

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#6

Thanks, Mike. It looks like the challenge won't be going down. This morning he told me he doesn't have time to hang around in Hicksville, Montana with a bum like me. That's his way of turning the bet down. LOL!

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#7

Three days ago, on December 17, I sent this screenshot to my potential challenger to show him I wasn't joking around. I put the Great Falls Tribune newspaper in the photo, showing that date, December 17, with the $10,000 to show him I didn't pirate the photo.

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#8

Three days ago, on December 17, I sent this screenshot to my potential challenger to show him I wasn't joking around.
  
Mickey-
  
As one of those here that enjoys your posts, I hate to see you share something like this on the internet. I'm sure you take every precaution, but $10,000 can be very enticing to someone who couldn't give a damn about you. Sounds like you are very serious about your challenge, but you don't need to put yourself at risk to prove it here. Those of us that enjoy your posts most likely believe you have the means and ability to pull it off (I'm sure there are some that don't). Don't tempt fate trying to convince us that a troll is be a troll. The internet is full of them.
  
We would hate to hear- or perhaps not hear- that something happened to you because of a post.
  
Just my .02- Thanks, Lee.

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#9

I've made claims in the past about never having losing days in gambling. Some people consider this to be an outrageous claim. I still get emails from people calling me a fraud.

I live in a state where the maximum jackpot by state law is just $800. How on earth can a person make a living playing machines in such a place? Well, I manage to pull it off. Mainly because I find a lot of plays like the one in the screenshot below. Admittedly, it's certainly a way above average play. It carries one of the higher hourly rates I get.

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   I explained how this game works earlier in this thread. One morning I was out looking for plays and stumbled across this. You can bet up to $2 on this game but need bet only fifty cents to qualify for the meters. The big deal on this play is the countdown on the 6 out of 7 is down to one. That means I only have to hit one 6 out of 7 to get the money in the meter.

Playing until I hit a 6 out of 7 carries a huge edge. Run the numbers above on the Wizard's keno calculator and it will come up 161%. The frequency of a 6 out of 7 is 1366. So the expectation on this play is a $417 earn.

1366 X .5 X .61% = $417.

On turbo speed this game plays at 40 games per minute. So the average seat time on this play is 34 minutes. And that means that my hourly rate in spots like this is about $740. And I'm only making a $1200 an hour wager. I love it when I find plays like this.

I always want to know what the "cost" is. What is my cost to play this game off? I just punch in the pays for the 3 out of 7, 4 out of 7, and 5 out of 7 on the Wizard's keno calculator. I leave the rest of the hits on zero. I fully discount out the solid seven hit. It comes up 70.6%. That means I'm taking a 29.6% drop on my way to hitting a 6 out of 7. Once again the frequency of 6 out of 7 is 1366.

1366 X .50 X 29.4% means the cost to run one cycle is $202. I have some protection on this play too. The 4 out of 7 countdown is down to 82. The frequency of a 4 out of 7 is 19.16. So the expectation is for me to run that countdown into range. Generally any countdown under 50 is playable.

I got stretched out on this play. It took me 2100 games to hit the 6 out of 7. But I also took off the 4 out of 7 meter. Its neither here nor there but I made $429 on the play.

I take a 2 to three week road trip every other month. My lowest daily earn on a trip, $544, my highest $607. Yes I can brag that I don't have losing days. The reason is I'm not playing thin edge stuff....as indicated by the play above. I work the biggest edges in the business.

I'm usually out in the casinos by 8 AM and back at the hotel by 4 or 5 PM. I get high hourly rates for the seat time on my plays but I also spend considerable time looking for the plays.

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#10

I was in Montana for a couple of weeks and I found some of these games. I found one that I thought was playable although later Mickey told me that it was probably not positive. Let me tell you though that this is the most mind numbing experience in gambling that I have had. I have to admire Mickey for his persistence and his ability to stay the course. I checked out maybe four or five casinos and played a couple of games. Pressing the button on the keno machine is not my idea of fun although I did get a few free drinks ! That life is certainly not for me.

I did enjoy a game called jokers vault and I can see where it could be positive. I never did find a jackpot high enough to make it positive but I did play some and at least had some fun. I never did break the vault but I got lots of full houses and had a lot of fun.

I definitely believe Mickey when he says he makes a living at this but it is hard work .

Sylvia

#11

I'm glad Sylvia had a little fun while she was here. Joker's Vault is certainly a more entertaining video poker game than most. When you make a full house, natural or wild, you get ten free games. Win at least 8 out of those ten free games and you get the money in the meter. It gets pretty exciting when you get down to having to win just the next game to get the money in the meter. Its a two pair joker game so when you get down to just that one game even a two pair hand carries a huge ER.

And I know why Sylvia had a hard time finding a good progressive number. It's something I go through periodically here. When they install a new game in a machine it sends the meters and/or the banking features back to reset. This is illegal in Nevada but apparently not so here. I see progressive money get wiped out all the time. I have my reasons for not complaining to Montana Gaming about it. I don't know what the hell they would do. Would they order the removal of the game? Would the casinos take the game off the machine? I certainly don't want that to happen. So I just leave the problem alone.

As for the hard work end of it. My butt is certainly dragging by the tail end of a road trip. I usually blow the last town or two off. Then when I go on another road trip I run the route just the opposite to cover the towns I blew off on the last trip. When a town gets enough soak time I can always look forward to finding juicy meters in it.

I can see where Sylvia would not be to entertained by a keno game. All the thinking is done up front with keno. There is not a whole lot to think about when you are playing the game. I always play on turbo speed. And with some of these games here all I have to do is lay my finger on the start sensor on the screen. The game just keeps playing. I don't even have to make a motion. That free's me up to fool around with my windows phone. While playing off a keno play I read the gambling forums, the news, my email (I always love it when I get another email from some stranger calling me a fraud), and then there's my kindle. My phone is always loaded up with kindle books. I have a lot of gambling books on it. Plus history books and historical fiction. So I always have something to do when playing off a boring keno play. I love kindle.

And yes, Sylvia, it is work. Finding the plays is hard work. Especially for a man who is about to complete his 63'rd lap around the sun (that reminds me. I'm old enough to file for Social Security. I'm gonna have to get around to doing that one of these days). But I always love the seat time when I find a play.

I love the Montanans. They are not a jaded people. I'm the only jaded one here. And that is a lot of fun.

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