vpFREE2 Forums

Vulturing in General

#1

The first time I ever seen the term "vulturing" was in a Dan Paymar book and it applied to vulturing Flush Attacks. That game has run it course and is now extinct. It first appeared in Laughlin in 1994. It was 8/5 Double Bonus Poker with every 4th flush, if you were betting five coins, paying 25 for 1. The theoretical was 101.83%.

There were banks of this game in the Riverside, Flamingo, Ramada Express, Golden Nugget and Gold River. The machines were linked together. So when someone hit the third flush on the bank it would trigger all the machines in the bank to Flush Attack mode. The next person who hit a flush was payed 125 coins. This developed the vulture activity on these banks. A person could play until he/she caught a 4-flush then sit and wait for Flush Attack mode to trigger and that person would get the first shot at hitting a flush. If they missed they just played like a bat out of hell until they hit a flush or someone else did. And whenever they were dealt a pat flush, which occurs about every 500 games or so, they had the 125 coins locked in whenever the light was triggered.

Small teams developed, usually 2 or three people. They would play until they all had 4 flushes then sit and wait. Or if one of them was dealt a pat flush they would sit and wait until the light triggered. The consequence of this was that the ploppies were getting crushed. Lots of complaints.

To end the controversy Sigma retrofit the machines to where you had to complete your hand before you were eligible for the bonus flush. This really didn't do anything to end the vulture activity. At that point the absolute best strategy was not to play at all when the game wasn't in bonus flush mode. Then play like a bat out of hell in mode using an aggresive flush strategy. But slot operations and security got hip to it and started running people off the banks who weren't playing in non mode.

It became a cloak and dagger thing. You bet one coin between the lights then went into five coin mode when the light triggered. You did this to camouflage your play. Betting one coin between the lights was about a 94% game. Betting five coins in mode was a theoretical 135%. It was an easy money making gig. There was so much cashing out on the 18 machine bank at the Riverside that, while every other video poker in the house got a $250 fill (quarters), the machines in the Flush Attack bank got $500 fills.

And while this game had a theoretical of 101.83% the machines were not returning anything close to that. I got a look at many a payout screen when mechanics were working on the machines. It was more like 98.5%. The skilled players made money but the ploppies got crushed. To get the 101.83% return you had to properly value the flush cards in the game.

The skilled players used a straight up short coin 8/5 Double Bonus Poker strategy on their one coin bets between the lights. A player bettting one coin and making a flush contributed 1 point to turning the light on. A person betting five coins and making a flush contributed 5 points to turning the light on. When 15 points were accumulated it triggered the Flush Attack light. We wanted to maximize our return on the one coin bets and not contribute to the light. That was the ploppies job, not ours.

The skilled players made money because they were running a far bigger wager on their five coin bets in mode, 135%, than they were on their one coin bets at 94%. The other factor was the skilled players could crank out 20 games a minute in mode with proper stategy and no mistakes while the ploppies couldn't come anywhere close to that.

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#2

I think there's still a few old flush attacks around, unlinked, and in obscure places.

Flush Attack http://grochowski.casinocitytimes.com/article/flush-attack-58093

http://grochowski.casinocitytimes.com/article/flush-attack-58093

Flush Attack http://grochowski.casinocitytimes.com/article/flush-attack-58093 John Grochowski: If there's a way to get an edge on a casino game, players will find it.

View on grochowsk... http://grochowski.casinocitytimes.com/article/flush-attack-58093
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#3

Growchowski has some factual errrors in his article. Flush Attack was not a low paying game, which I will explain later. And when Sigma refit the game to eliminate sitting there with a four flush or a pat flush until the light triggered it did not eliminate the vulturing. It simply changed the way the game was vultured. After the refit, if you were sitting there not playing your machine, and the flush attack light was triggered on all the other machines, all you had to do was play and complete one game to trigger the light on your machine. Then you played like a bat out of hell until you hit the flush or someone else did.

The next move that many casinos made was unlinking the machines so that when a person triggered flush attack mode no one else could get the flush, that is, unless that person got up and left while the game was still in mode. We called that phenomenon the Motel 6. You know, Tom Bodette, we'll leave the light on for you.

The unlinking didn't occur in Laughlin for a long time. The first and only bank I know of that got unlinked in Laughlin was at the Pioneer in late 1999. But they unlinked them all across northern Nevada.

So what then became the strategy?

Pros looked at the game a couple of different ways. And one of them was flat wrong. One theory was that you should play 8/5 DB strategy through the first three flushes that payed 5 for 1. Then switch to a strategy based on a 125 coin flush. But if you look at the math, especially on the software, this is not the correct strategy.

8/5 DB is a 94.1897% game. The flush frequency is 91.792. Using the stats from the software looks like this:

91.7092 X 3 X $1.25 is a wager of $343.90 on a game that returns 94.1897%. So you are getting dropped for 5.81%.

$343.90 X 5.81% is a cost of $19.98

Then you switch to the 125 coin strategy which produces a flush every 41.95737 games and returns 134.94162%

41.95737 X $1.25 is a wager of $52.45.
$52.45 X 134.94162% is a profit of $18.33 but the cost of the first three flushes is $19.98. So on a total wager of $396.36 you are losing $1.65. That's a return of 99.5837%.

It was Doug Reul who invented the Flush 50 strategy for the game. He designed one single constant strategy based on the average value of the flush being 50 coins. He published this strategy in Video Poker Times. The first three flushes pay 25 coins and the fourth flush pays 125 coins. Thats an average value of 50 coins. The overall return for this strategy is 101.8394%.

Using Flush 50 strategy the software stats look like this:

With the first three flushes you are at 92.75%. The flush frequency is 55.0096. That's a wager of $206.29 with a drop of 7.25% or a cost of $14.96.

With the 4th flush you have a wager of $68.76 and a return of 129.1% for a profit of $20.01. The cycle for 4 flushes is 220.0384 games which is a total wager of $275.05.

The cost on the first three flushes is $14.96 and the win on the fourth flush is $20.01. That's a $5.05 profit on a wager of $275.05 or a return of 101.83%.

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#4

lol You're the best read on the internet. Write a biography, Mickey! A real book, not a blog.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <mickeycrimm@...> wrote :

We called that phenomenon the Motel 6. You know, Tom Bodette, we'll leave the light on for you.

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#5

Flush Attack in Laughlin- boy does that bring back memories. Way back when these were active, I made many trips to Laughlin and loved to play these games and watch all the deceit and cloak and dagger activity. I fit right in and quickly learned the tricks to my advantage.

My favorite bank was at the Flamingo Hilton which were located at the windows overlooking the river walk. I think I played every bank up and down the river. Whenever I sat down I got many stares as the pros had never seen me and figured me out as a plop y who would play to their benefit- they were wrong. I would make the rounds checking out the Piggy Bank games for a ripe play and the Flush Attack banks.

As I remember the biggest bank was at the Riverside. Flush Attack mode was much more active due to all the linked machines. My wife would limit me to one hour on these games as, after all we were on vacation and the smoke in that section of the casino was just terrible.

It got so bad that I saw some players not even sitting at a machine, but leaving money and sot card in, but barking at anyone trying to play that machine--- I AM PLAYING THAT MACHINE!! Of course when the flush attack mode was getting close they would go back and sit at their machine.

I would be very surprised if any of these are around anymore. The last few machines I saw were about 6-7 years ago at the Carson Valley Inn, Minden Nevada.

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#6

Mickey wrote: "It was Doug Reul who invented the Flush 50 strategy for the game."

An excellent example of why sometimes it's valuable to look beyond just maximizing the return of each hand in isolation. Any time there is a promotion involving some end event, it's probably a good idea to look for the game theory optimal strategy for that block. Play the entire event optimally, don't get lost just looking at individual hands in isolation.

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#7

As stated earlier, Doug Reul invented the flush 50 strategy for Unlinked Flush Attack. In the same article he also wrote about the concept of sweeping through the machines to get a much bigger edge.

My first trip to Northern Nevada was in 1998. I came in from the Utah side and stopped in Wendover. I found a bank of 4 unlinked Flush Attacks. So I swept through them. Then the machines just sat there not getting any action from the ploppies. It wasn't a good spot for sweeping Flush Attacks.

My next stop was Elko where I found a bank of 8 unlinked machines in the Red Lion....and two more across the street in Gold Country. Elko was a great spot for sweeping Flush Attacks. The business in the Red Lion was all novice gamblers on 2 and three day junkets. They were flown in and out on Millionaire Express. The Flush Attacks got plenty of action.

The sweep works like this:

You arrive at the casino and sit down on a Flush Attack machine. Your objective is to play until you collect the bonus flush (125). Then you cash out, move to the next machine and do the same thing. When you collect the bonus flush on that machine you cash out, move to the next machine, and do the same thing. You do this until you have swept through all the machines.

With this process you are picking up all the 5 coin flushes made by the ploppies before they quit the machine. What I know when I sit down on a machine is I'm going to make either 2, 3 or four flushes before cashing out. The Flush Attacks in Elko were the 7/5 variety with a theoretical of 100.7824%. Let's see if I can remember these numbers correctly:

On the plays where I had to make 4 flushes to clear the machine my theoretical was 100.78%
On the plays where I had to make only 3 flushes to clear the machine my theoretical was 103.8%.
On the plays where I had to make only 2 flushes to clear the machine my theoretical was 109.87%.

I carried a pocket notebook and wrote down how many flushes I had to make on each machine. A line in the notebook would look like this:

34224342324

I used these numbers to determine what theoretical I was playing at. In Elkoj my average was 2.9 flushes per play. But we'll round that off to 3. Playing stratight through the theoretical was 100.78% and the average value of the flush is 10 for 1. But by sweeping through the machines and picking up all the 5 coin flushes made by the ploppies I only had to make 3 flushes per play. Which meant that the average value of the flush for me was 11.67. The first two flushes pay 5 for 1. The third flush pays 25 for one. That's an average of 11.67 bets returned per flush. That brings the theoretical up to 103.8%.

At that time the Red Lion also had ten unlinked House a' Rockin's. This was also a Sigma game that worked the same way as Flush Attack, except it was based on Full Houses. It was 8/5 Double Bonus with every 6th Full House paying 40 for 1. I'll write about this game later.

On the Flush Attacks I would do a sweep in the morning then let the ploppies play. I would do another sweep in the afternoon. Then another sweep about 8:00 PM every night. I was doing about 30 plays or about 5000 hands per day with a theoretical of 103.8%. The expectation was about $240 a day. And I also got all the Motel 6's that were left.

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#8

I know some people get perturbed when I write about extinct plays. The plays might be extinct but the concepts never die. You never can tell when history will repeat itself, or some similar game develops. But I will move on to one of my current vulture plays.

The game is called Jackpot Rocket. In the screenshot you will see a 7-spot keno game. On the payscale you can see the Hit Column, Win Column, Progressive Column, and the Countdown Column. This is a two-coin quarter game and the win column reflects that. This game has 5% worth of meters. Here is a screenshot of the game:

http://www.imgur.com/MquQoVY
The 7/7 meter starts at $700, runs 2% but caps at $800.
The 6/7 meter starts at $250, runs at 1%, but will run at 3% when the 7/7 meter caps.
The 5/7 meter starts at $165.50 and runs at 1%. If the 6/7 meter caps the 5/7 meter goes to 4%.
The 4/7 meter starts at $102.50 and runs at 1%.

The Countdowns are all at reset. Take the 4/7 countdown for example. In the picture you can see that the countdown is at 248. You you hit a 4/7 the countdown will move down to 247. Hit another 4/7 and the countdown will drop to 246, etc. When you hit all 248 4/7's you will get the money in the meter. The countdowns for the other hits work the same way.

Playing straight through this game has about a 95% return. But I don't play them straight through. I vulture them. Take a look at this next screenshot. I play them when I find them like this. You can see that the countdown on the 4/7 is 40. This is a strong play, at least through hitting 40 4/7's.

http://www.imgur.com/H2cVI8f

I used to have to do the math right at the machine when I found plays like this. But I'm high tech now. I have a keno calculator right on my phone. Anytime I find a play with a theoretical of 110% or higher I play it off. In the case here the first 39 4/7's pay 5 for 1. The 40th pays 261 for 1 ($130.45 is 261 bets). So the average value of the 4/7 is 11.4 for 1. The frequency on the 4/7 is 19.16.

11.4/19.16 = 59.5%

I punch the rest of the payscale into the keno calculator but leave the 4/7 on zero. The return shows 56.3%.

59.5% + 56.3% = 115.8%. Adding the 1% meter means the play is at 116.8% through hitting 40 4/7's.

The expectation is to play 766 games to hit 40 4/7's (19.16 X 40 = 766). Thats a wager of $383.

$383 X 16.8% = an average earn of $64.

On turbo speed the game plays at 44 games per minute. So the average seat time on the play is 19 minutes. In other words, my seat time in these spots is worth about $190 an hour. However, I spend considerable time looking for these plays. But I do manage to get in several plays a day with advantages similar to this one.

I not only get plays on the 4/7, I also get plays on the 5/7 and 6/7.

This is my style of gambling. I have a variety of short term plays like this. It's why I can tell people I don't have losing months or even losing weeks. And it is extremely rare that I have a losing day. I don't win on every play. But I win on 90% of them.
  
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#9

Thank God for ploppies. Without them I would still be sleeping in the weeds. This is one of the bettter 4/7 plays I've found. This play has an expectation of a $118 earn for 3 minutes seat time.

http://www.imgur.com/c1VcVaj

This screenshot here is the best play I've ever found on the 4/7. I found it last week. Its about a $125 earn for less than two minutes seat time. But notice the 6/7 meter and countdown. The meter is at $679 and the countdown is at 10. I'm waiting for this play to develop. If I find it on 1,2, or 3 I'll play it off. The cost to produce a 6/7 is normally $174. But on this particular play the 5/7 countdown will come into range also, which will dramatically lower the cost. The frequency of the 6/7 is 1366.

http://www.imgur.com/pFuXCCJ

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#10

Here's what a strong play on the 5/7 meter looks like.

http://www.imgur.com/VgCFtVs

This is a 179% play. It about a $183 earn for about 10 minutes seat time.
  
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#11

When I punch up the Jackpot Rocket game on a machine there are 29 sets of meters and countdowns I have to go through. You can play anywhere from 2 to 10 numbers and they all have meters on them.

Here is what the 4-spot game looks like at reset. Hit the solid 4 five times and you get the money in the meter. Hit 3/4 forty-five times and you get the money in that meter. The 4/4 meter runs at 3% and the 3/4 meter runs at 2%. This is about a 93% game. The bet is two quarters.

http://www.imgur.com/MplGRXm

I play the 4-spot when I find it looking something like this:

http://www.imgur.com/NvcdXe6
In the case here I'm gonna snap off both meters in short order. The frequency of the solid 4 is 326.4 and the frequency for a 3/4 is 23.1. This play is an average $40 earn for for an average 8 minutes seat time.
  
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#12

I have a "behind the scenes" story about Jackpot Rockets. A poster in another forum PM'd me telling me he could get me payback percentages for certain line games on certain machines in Montana. I told him that wouldn't help because those games had no meters or banking features which could possibly make those games exploitable. He asked me what I was playing. I explained the Jackpot Rocket 4-spot to him and how I expoited it as an example of how I vulture games. He fired me back an email telling he was the inventor and designer of Jackpot Rockets. He's a video game designer out of Denver, Colorado. He was highly surprised I was exploiting his game. LOL!

He asked me how much I made off the game. I make a few thousand dollars a year off the game. Some years higher. It depends on how lucky I get with the top line hits. In 6 years I've only hit the solid 7 twice. But its all gravy when I do hit it. On the Jackpot Rocket 6-spot, where I'm playing to take off the 4/6 or 5/6 meters, I've hit the solid 6 several times which pays upwards of $550.

Jackpot Rockets is just one of many games I exploit. It's the total earn of all those games that puts me close to six figures every year.

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#13

I've been asked to write about Super 8 Liner. Its been a lot of years since I played one. For lack of a better way I did an emprical study on them. I literally counted down how often the fruit lands in a square. I put the chances of catching all fruit at 2.5 to the 9th power or 3814. I played them at 4,000 coins or higher. You can speed the game up by tapping the draw button. I had very few losing plays at this game.

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#14

One more comment about Flush Attack. Over a five year period I played about 5,000,000 hands sweeping out Flush Attacks. By sweeping through the machines my average value of the flush was 11.67 for 1 instead of 10 for 1. Normally the variance is 30 but sweeping through the machines significantly lowered the variance. My worst losing streak through 5,000,000 hands was $1100. In other words, it didn't take much bankroll to exploit this game.

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