vpFREE2 Forums

VPW Bankroll Calulator Question

#1

I have a question regarding the results I get when running the VPW
bankroll calculator on bonus games. The game I most recently looked
at is triple-play $1 FP Super Double Bonus.

If, in the Controls field, I enter a profit cutoff of $400, a
session stake of $6000, and the number of rounds as 4000, I get the
following numbers:

Quit - - - - - - - - - - - 79.73%
Playing - - - - - - - - - - 15.93%
Ruined - - - - - - - - - - - 4.34%
Chance of profit - - - - - 79.84%
Chance of loss - - - - - - 20.15%

Knowing that no money-management "system" can overcome the
disadvantage in playing a negative expectation game, it's my guess
that the reason the above figures indicate a nearly 80% chance of
profit is due to the bonus payoff for the "premium" quads & SF. Am
I on the right track?

Thanks in advance for any clarification.

noosarazoo

#2

Noosarazoo asked about a VPW bankroll calculation.

You set up the parameters of a very high bankroll ($6000) compared to
the amount of profit you wanted ($400). This is a highly volatile game,
and the numbers say that you'll be that far ahead about 80% of the time.
Note that each time you're ruined, you've lost $6000, which is 15 times
greater than the minimum profit you're seeking (sometimes you'll hit a
big jackpot and blow through the $400 profit figure --- which triggers a
stop in your figures.) So being ruined 4.34% of the time counterbalances
a lot of the profit. Also note that the other 16% that is unaccounted is
almost entirely in the negative. After this many hands you don't end up
greater than zero and less than $400.

Bob Dancer

For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video poker
computer trainer ever invented, go to //www.videopokerforwinners.com

#3

Many thanks for the reply, Bob!

noosarazoo

Noosarazoo asked about a VPW bankroll calculation.

You set up the parameters of a very high bankroll ($6000) compared

to

the amount of profit you wanted ($400). This is a highly volatile

game,

and the numbers say that you'll be that far ahead about 80% of the

time.

Note that each time you're ruined, you've lost $6000, which is 15

times

greater than the minimum profit you're seeking (sometimes you'll

hit a

big jackpot and blow through the $400 profit figure --- which

triggers a

stop in your figures.) So being ruined 4.34% of the time

counterbalances

a lot of the profit. Also note that the other 16% that is

unaccounted is

almost entirely in the negative. After this many hands you don't

end up

greater than zero and less than $400.

Bob Dancer

For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video

poker

computer trainer ever invented, go

to //www.videopokerforwinners.com

ยทยทยท

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bdancer@...> wrote: