My post which follows, of 1/2 an hour ago and looks like it got lost
in the ether, will likely come through as a duplicate after this
resend ... but hey, I've now added a bit or two ...
···
---------------------------------------------------------------------
jackessiebabe wrote:
I play a lot of DB & DDB and found this extremely interesting,
Thanks, Harry, for doing the math that I didn't think to do!It also bares out my contention that, for the rec player who is
playing for "the thrill of it all", rather than squeezing out every
penny of EV, that sometimes it isn't a horrific idea to "take a
gamble" and hold the 2 aces alone. Interestingly enough, at DB,
though frequently I am tempted to dump the 2nd pair (when I also
have a pair of Aces)I almost never do. It is so ingrained in me,
from playing so many millions of hands on BDWP, that I just can't go
against the strategy. Perhaps that's why I prefer DDB, where it's
always permissable to drop the 2nd pair.
I'm glad my comments were appreciated.
I'll go a step further with the 10/7 DB analysis. Switching over to
Frugal VP (my previous comments were based upon VP Strategy Master
analysis ... I'm a creature of habit, Jean ;), it's possible to
determine the exact impact on ER of any basic strategy change.
For 10/7 DB, holding a pair of high Aces over 2 Pair impairs ER by an
earthshattering .0018%. I'll go out on a limb here and say that
there's little doubt, for the player who enjoys DDB, that this
sacrifice is an intelligent choice -- given the likely reward in play
excitement (especially for an intrepid soul like you, Babe!)
I know what you're saying that when you use a computer tutor, it's
near impossible to stray from "perfect play" strategy -- especially
when the tutor flashes blaring error messages every time you stray
(and that's the worst it gets for me since I turned off the error
buzzer long ago ;).
So here's a hint. We all know the adrenaline kick a set of quad Aces
bring. If this is something that you really crave (little doubt about
this for any player who enjoys DDB), go ahead and change the quad Aces
payout to 805 (1 coin value of 161) -- yep that's all it takes. Now,
it'll admonish you if you hold 2 pair over a single pair of Aces. (If
you have your minimum error threshold, i.e. "ignore" value, set to
anything other than 0, or near 0, winpoker will likely keep mum in
either case at this setting.
For what it's worth, variance (something I obsess over) with this
strategy change increases fairly nominally ... from 28.2 to 29.6 --
not insignificant, but again an increase that is WELL within the
tolerance of a DDB player.
--> Two additional observations for clarification:
A discussion of returns can be a little abstract. FVP reports this
strategy change as a $.15/hr. EV hit for the $1 player ($.04 for the
quarter). You can be that's something Bob Dancer would freak over 
Second, the modest variance increase noted can be misleading when it
comes to any single vp session (or multiple, for that matter).
Clearly, if you end up scoring a small coup in additional quad Aces,
the impact of the strategy change is a major influence on your trip
results. Conversely, if you still are quad-Aceless (love to make up
words) in a trip, you'll have sacrificed a decent number of full
houses and the effect on your trip bottom line will be far from
negligible.
Remember, variance is a concept for the very long term. Everything
does indeed average out ultimately. But, being someone who craves the
serenity of Jacks play (save me the "snores", guys!), you can bet I'll
forevermore hold those 2 pairs and not flinch a bit at a mini-jackpot
forgone.
So, Babe ... I've dragged you (and others) through the numbers.
Feeling better about grabbing onto just those Aces and getting a small
thrill each time?
- Harry