[vpmail2] Math puzzle - Palms coupon

[Jean_Scott1]

<<I used a program called "Frugal Video Poker" to analyze the game. Maybe
the next time you get a royal flush you can buy yourself a copy

I came up with the same .4% that Brian did. Oddly enough, there don't seem
to be any strategy changes to 9/6 jacks.>>

Thanx for brightening my day with a laugh. When I fell in Caesar's garage, I not only broke my foot but must have hit my head too. Or the heat here in Vegas has fried my brain.

Actually I knew what the quad was worth in EV - believe it or not I do know how to use the FVP software - I just couldn't think how to decide whether $40,000 coin-in was enough hands to have a likely chance of hitting the 6s. But playing 8000 hands (on dollars) and the 6-quad cycle being 5687, JoB with the coupon is a better play than NSUD without a coupon. Of course once I use the coupon (a one-time-only bonus) then I switch back to NSUDs.

(Hummmm, I just had another question - we usually play $2 Five Play so 4000 hands would reduce our chances to hit 6s - right? Would it be better to stick with dollars? What about the fact that it is multi-line, dependent on the dealt hand - does that decrease our chances even though we can get paid the bonus for 6s on any line - but, of course, just once, even if dealt them?)

An aside - it has surprised me that most quad bonuses aren't big enough to change basic strategy. I don't think this is an intuitive conclusion for most players. This is just another place where you need to use the software rather than "going by the seat of your pants."

By the way, this Palms coupon book came to locals in some zip codes as "To Resident." In the past someone could ask for one of these locals books at the slot club desk and sometimes they would have one to give out to anyone, local or out-of-towner. I'm not sure whether this would work with this one that expires Sept. 9th. In any case, this 4-sixes coupon is "One per person." They put your # in the computer when you use it.

Another by the way, some may question why we are playing a negative game. Bounce-back and promotions make this a positive play for us.

Thanx to all who helped this muddled brain.

···

________________________________________
Jean $�ott - http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
  for VP software and strategy cards.
  NEW - Blackjack Strategy Cards +
              Updated Second Edition of
             "The Frugal Gambler."

[Jean-Baptiste_Queru]

Well, that makes some sense if you look at the hands that have a
reasonable chance of being improved to a quad and that can also be
played in another way.

E.g. a full house (6 full of whatever):

Playing the FH has an ER of 9. In plain 9/6 JoB, playing a set of 6
has an ER of approximately 4.3, and only about 1.06 of that comes from
the possibility of hitting a quad. For the set of 6 to be worth more
than the FH, you'd need quad 6 to be worth approximately 5.6 times
its regular value, i.e. 140.

Similarly, when playing a pair only 0.14 of the ER comes from the
quad. For a pair of 6 to be worth more than 4-to-a-flush or 3-to-a-RF,
you'd need quad 6 to be worth approximately 3.2 times its regular
value, i.e. 80 (and it would take a lot more than that to discard a
second pair).

Looking at the strategy, one of the few changes that might cause a
change of strategy with only a small bonus is likely to be a quad-10,
where a pair of 10 would beat 10-J-Q-K. I haven't looked at the
possibility of improving a single card to a quad, but I think that it
would have a very small impact, probably mostly limited to the few odd
cases of penalty cards (e.g. suited face+10).

I am not totally confident in my numbers, you've been warned.

JBQ

···

On 7/18/05, Jean Scott <QueenofComps@frugalgambler.biz> wrote:

An aside - it has surprised me that most quad bonuses aren't big enough to
change basic strategy.

[Harry_Porter]

Jean Scott wrote:

> An aside - it has surprised me that most quad bonuses aren't big
> enough to change basic strategy.

Jean-Baptiste Queru replied:

Well, that makes some sense if you look at the hands that have a
reasonable chance of being improved to a quad and that can also be
played in another way ...

I'll add a note along similar lines:

It occurred to me that DB provides a fine basic example in this vein.
With a 5 coin wager, a 400 quad payout isn't sufficient to alter play
strategy -- it takes the 800 Aces payout before there's a significant
shift.

In fact, reduce the 800 by even as little as 20 and a full house takes
priority over trip Aces. Interestingly, increase the Aces by 10 and
holding a pair of bullets becomes optimal over two pair.

Of course, as J-B notes, when it comes to a single pair of some bonus
cards, there are shifts that might affect strategy involving alternate
holds of S, F, or SF cards at lower quad bonuses. These will vary
depending upon the respective pays on these latter hands.

- Harry

[jackessiebabe]

I play a lot of DB & DDB and found this extremely interesting,
Thanks, Harry, for doing the math that I didn't think to do!

It also bares out my contention that, for the rec player who is
playing for "the thrill of it all", rather than squeezing out every
penny of EV, that sometimes it isn't a horrific idea to "take a
gamble" and hold the 2 aces alone. Interestingly enough, at DB,
though frequently I am tempted to dump the 2nd pair (when I also
have a pair of Aces)I almost never do. It is so ingrained in me,
from playing so many millions of hands on BDWP, that I just can't go
against the strategy. Perhaps that's why I prefer DDB, where it's
always permissable to drop the 2nd pair.

Anyway, thanks for a very interesting post,

Babe

···

----------------------------------------------
In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...> wrote:

....It occurred to me that DB provides a fine basic example in this
vein. With a 5 coin wager, a 400 quad payout isn't sufficient to
alter play strategy -- it takes the 800 Aces payout before there's a
significant shift. In fact, reduce the 800 by even as little as 20
and a full house takes priority over trip Aces. Interestingly,
increase the Aces by 10 and holding a pair of bullets becomes
optimal over two pair.................
<snip>
- Harry