lawrenceboxer wrote:
>>The point is that when you choose to double, you're extending the
same
play -- you haven't collected the hand win and then rebet it. The ER
of the ultimate pays, whether you double or not, are unchanged.<<That's the problem. You have WON the hand, regardless of whether or
not you decide to collect it or RE-BET it on double-up. By your
logic, any play is dependent on the prior play if losing would
prevent further play, rather than viewing each bet as independent.
Not only is it a different bet, it's a different GAME. Oranges ain't
apples, even if they're in the same basket.
But if you're not allowed to eat an orange until after eating an
apple, then eating an orange becomes a dependent event.
I have stated that the double-up is a dependent event because you
don't have the option to play it until after you have achieved a
payoff on the VP game.
Elliot has claimed that the double-up is a separate event because you
have the option of either cashing out the payoff from the VP hand or
playing the double-up.
That does not make it a separate event because you do not have an
option to then put the money back into the machine and play just the
double-up. There is no way to play just the double-up.
I stand by four statements:
1. The double-up option does not change the overall EV of your play
on the machine.
2. The double-up option does increase the variance. For weekend
warriors, that may be considered "good" in the same way that Double
Double Bonus Poker is "good" by offering the chance of a moderate
size jackpot. For long-term players, increased variance is usually
considered undesirable.
3. Playing the double-up slows your play on the VP game. If it's a
sub-100% game then that's good (it does not increase the EV, but it
reduces your loss rate simply because you play fewer hands).
4. My recommendation is to double up any time that you would be
willing to risk the amount of the current payoff on the flip of a
fair coin, with no side benefits (slot club points, comps, etc.).
Dan
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Dan Paymar, author of "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor and publisher of "Video Poker Times" newsletter
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
"Chance favors the prepared mind"
- Louis Pasteur
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