vpFREE2 Forums

VP blowing up? Advantage play soon a thing of the past?

#1

No, those were not rhetorical scare questions in the topic. I am just intensely curious about this and was hoping one of the veterans in this group should shed some light. I apologize for the length and personal nature of this post. First, some background:

I live in San Diego and went to my first casino (Barona) a few months ago with a friend for fun. I immediately gravitated towards vp because I had heard it was a better bet than most games and it was entertaining to me to do the math (just estimates in my head) on which cards to hold, chances of getting the hand I wanted, etc. I've always been mathematically inclined (parents both have math phds) and it was fairly obvious that it was possible to crunch the numbers to see what the *perfect* play was and what the expected return would be for each game and paytable.

I googled video poker and was surprised to see how much information there already was. Statistics were available on basically every metric one could need. I also discovered that there are games with positive EV: this floored me. I had been told by my Dad my whole life that the house always wins except for card counting in blackjack, and he usually knows his stuff.

I mastered 2PJW(FP) using trainers at vpgenius because it is 99.92% at my local casino, barely positive when you factor in CB and promotions. I scoured multiple casinos in my area and it was the best bet I could find. After a few months and ending up slightly behind when you factor in gas costs and opportunity costs (i.e. not working) I decided that I'm going to try to make a serious stab at this: a trip to Vegas with a bankroll high enough to make ruin nearly impossible on positive EV machines. I don't plan on living there, but rather staying 2-4 weeks so I can even out the volatility a bit.

Before I pour my heart and soul into this as I use the next couple months to prepare, that illogical/emotional voice inside wants to know: is it too good to be true? Are too many players finding out about this due to the wide availability of information forcing Casinos to replace their high ev games with their opposites? (gimmicky ones like supertimespay, 100 hands, spin poker) It's starting to dawn on me that instead of having bad luck, I just naturally find out about these types of opportunities as they reach the general public thus losing their profitability.

If that's not what's happening here, I'd also appreciate it if someone could recommend hotels best for a few trial weekend trips I'd like to do before committing to a longer stay.

#2

One of the problems you will face as a visitor is ton of the EV of AP these days is locked up in mailers, tournament invites, free slot tournaments, bounce-back cash, etc...

If you visit and leave, a large percentage of your profit potential is hacked to shreds.

You are going to get a lot of different opinions on whether or not VP is blowing up and if AP is dying. I have been surprised this year at how much there has been to do. It is necessary to scout more and look further afield, but the plays are still there and some of them are very good.

~FK

P.S. Liked your acknowledgment of gas and opportunity cost in play consideration.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "caliexile" <nairbtrah1@...> wrote:

No, those were not rhetorical scare questions in the topic. I am just intensely curious about this and was hoping one of the veterans in this group should shed some light. I apologize for the length and personal nature of this post. First, some background:

I live in San Diego and went to my first casino (Barona) a few months ago with a friend for fun. I immediately gravitated towards vp because I had heard it was a better bet than most games and it was entertaining to me to do the math (just estimates in my head) on which cards to hold, chances of getting the hand I wanted, etc. I've always been mathematically inclined (parents both have math phds) and it was fairly obvious that it was possible to crunch the numbers to see what the *perfect* play was and what the expected return would be for each game and paytable.

I googled video poker and was surprised to see how much information there already was. Statistics were available on basically every metric one could need. I also discovered that there are games with positive EV: this floored me. I had been told by my Dad my whole life that the house always wins except for card counting in blackjack, and he usually knows his stuff.

I mastered 2PJW(FP) using trainers at vpgenius because it is 99.92% at my local casino, barely positive when you factor in CB and promotions. I scoured multiple casinos in my area and it was the best bet I could find. After a few months and ending up slightly behind when you factor in gas costs and opportunity costs (i.e. not working) I decided that I'm going to try to make a serious stab at this: a trip to Vegas with a bankroll high enough to make ruin nearly impossible on positive EV machines. I don't plan on living there, but rather staying 2-4 weeks so I can even out the volatility a bit.

Before I pour my heart and soul into this as I use the next couple months to prepare, that illogical/emotional voice inside wants to know: is it too good to be true? Are too many players finding out about this due to the wide availability of information forcing Casinos to replace their high ev games with their opposites? (gimmicky ones like supertimespay, 100 hands, spin poker) It's starting to dawn on me that instead of having bad luck, I just naturally find out about these types of opportunities as they reach the general public thus losing their profitability.

If that's not what's happening here, I'd also appreciate it if someone could recommend hotels best for a few trial weekend trips I'd like to do before committing to a longer stay.

#3

I was going to impress you with my detailed opinions on this subject, but Frank pretty much summed it up very well in just a few words. Basically, if you can't make it to the casinos on a weekly basis (or even more often) to collect on the mail offers they send, it becomes nearly impossible to make any kind of profit at VP.

Also, don't automatically knock games like 100 play and Spin Poker. These multi-line games often afford the player with an opportunity to run huge sums of coin thru with much lower swings compared to running the same coin thru on a high denomination single line game. It still all boils down whether or not the base return of the game + casino rebates makes the game attractive. Some of my best long term plays have been on these types of games.

But yes, you are about 10 - 15 years too late for the real fun.

EE

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "caliexile" <nairbtrah1@...> wrote:

Before I pour my heart and soul into this as I use the next couple months to prepare, that illogical/emotional voice inside wants to know: is it too good to be true? Are too many players finding out about this due to the wide availability of information forcing Casinos to replace their high ev games with their opposites? (gimmicky ones like supertimespay, 100 hands, spin poker) It's starting to dawn on me that instead of having bad luck, I just naturally find out about these types of opportunities as they reach the general public thus losing their profitability.

#4

Hi, I don't know you from Adam, so don't get offended by what I have to say, but I can't help but raise my eyebrow at your statement of "mastering" 2PJW. Are you sure? You might want to test yourself on some other software like WinPoker or Video Poker for Winners. Just a suggestion. It's a very difficult game.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "caliexile" <nairbtrah1@...> wrote:

I mastered 2PJW(FP) using trainers at vpgenius because it is 99.92% at my local casino,

#5

Hey Bob,

I'm not offended, I appreciate the concern. I am sure that a large % of
players who read about strategy for a particular game and use the strategy
cards either don't understand it, abandon it when they're way down or up, or
lack the mental stamina to maintain accuracy. However, I am fairly certain
that I have mastered 2PJW for all intents and purposes. I'll describe my
methodology so that you can identify where I might be going wrong:

I came into this with working knowledge of probability/statistics so things
like penalty cards make sense on a gut level. It's not as though I don't
require data from others but having a chart of the expected return for every
possible hand (that I studied first) while I practiced made things easy. As
soon as I encountered exceptions to general rules, the reasoning behind them
fell into place which makes remembering those exceptions easy. I do still
make a mistake every now and then, but they're not statistically significant
(the only kind I make is picking the wrong single card hold, which is
usually around a .01 loss in ER for that hand). Since it doesn't happen
often, they knock off less than .001% off my overall expected return:
statistically insignificant for my purposes.

It's been a couple weeks since my VPFW trial ended (it's some slick software
but the most important tools are available elsewhere for free so it didn't
seem worth the price) but my error rate and their impact on my overall ER
was equally insignificant then. I've moved on to mastering FPDW as it seems
like the most prevalent good bet in Vegas. I make sure to go back to 2PJW
after training with FPDW to make sure I don't confuse strategy between the
two.

Sorry for the long post but you did ask! VP Theory isn't that complicated so
I can't imagine there being much difference, if at all, between perfect-play
strategy given by VPFW and that given by vpgenius. That being said, I am new
so it's possible I'm overlooking something. I tried to detail my methodology
as much as possible so that you could identify the errors if there are any.
I'd much rather be wrong and corrected than continue playing w/blissful
ignorance of my mistakes!

- Brian

···

On Thu, Jul 7, 2011 at 9:06 PM, Bob Bartop <bobbartop@yahoo.com> wrote:

**

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "caliexile" <nairbtrah1@...> wrote:
>
>
> I mastered 2PJW(FP) using trainers at vpgenius because it is 99.92% at my
local casino,

Hi, I don't know you from Adam, so don't get offended by what I have to
say, but I can't help but raise my eyebrow at your statement of "mastering"
2PJW. Are you sure? You might want to test yourself on some other software
like WinPoker or Video Poker for Winners. Just a suggestion. It's a very
difficult game.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

That's a corner I would not recommend cutting.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, nairb trah <nairbtrah1@...> wrote:

It's been a couple weeks since my VPFW trial ended (it's some slick software
but the most important tools are available elsewhere for free so it didn't
seem worth the price)

#7

So, what's the plan? Spend 2-4 weeks in Vegas playing FPDW 100 hours per week? That would give you about 400,000 hands, which would be statistically significant (almost 9 royal cycles). The Lotspiech calculator (below) can tell you what to expect. You could tell us how you did here.

http://www.lotspiech.com/poker/GamblersRuin.html

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, nairb trah <nairbtrah1@...> wrote:

Hey Bob,

I'm not offended, I appreciate the concern. I am sure that a large % of
players who read about strategy for a particular game and use the strategy
cards either don't understand it, abandon it when they're way down or up, or
lack the mental stamina to maintain accuracy. However, I am fairly certain
that I have mastered 2PJW for all intents and purposes. I'll describe my
methodology so that you can identify where I might be going wrong:

I came into this with working knowledge of probability/statistics so things
like penalty cards make sense on a gut level. It's not as though I don't
require data from others but having a chart of the expected return for every
possible hand (that I studied first) while I practiced made things easy. As
soon as I encountered exceptions to general rules, the reasoning behind them
fell into place which makes remembering those exceptions easy. I do still
make a mistake every now and then, but they're not statistically significant
(the only kind I make is picking the wrong single card hold, which is
usually around a .01 loss in ER for that hand). Since it doesn't happen
often, they knock off less than .001% off my overall expected return:
statistically insignificant for my purposes.

It's been a couple weeks since my VPFW trial ended (it's some slick software
but the most important tools are available elsewhere for free so it didn't
seem worth the price) but my error rate and their impact on my overall ER
was equally insignificant then. I've moved on to mastering FPDW as it seems
like the most prevalent good bet in Vegas. I make sure to go back to 2PJW
after training with FPDW to make sure I don't confuse strategy between the
two.

Sorry for the long post but you did ask! VP Theory isn't that complicated so
I can't imagine there being much difference, if at all, between perfect-play
strategy given by VPFW and that given by vpgenius. That being said, I am new
so it's possible I'm overlooking something. I tried to detail my methodology
as much as possible so that you could identify the errors if there are any.
I'd much rather be wrong and corrected than continue playing w/blissful
ignorance of my mistakes!

- Brian

On Thu, Jul 7, 2011 at 9:06 PM, Bob Bartop <bobbartop@...> wrote:

> **
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "caliexile" <nairbtrah1@> wrote:
> >
> >
> > I mastered 2PJW(FP) using trainers at vpgenius because it is 99.92% at my
> local casino,
>
> Hi, I don't know you from Adam, so don't get offended by what I have to
> say, but I can't help but raise my eyebrow at your statement of "mastering"
> 2PJW. Are you sure? You might want to test yourself on some other software
> like WinPoker or Video Poker for Winners. Just a suggestion. It's a very
> difficult game.
>
>
>

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#8

Stick to FPDW. I have been playing for 25 years. Not only have I eeked out a profit I have had more fun, travel, free food, free booze, etc. than any many deserves.
Just keep it to a hobby. You can't and won't "make a living" off it in 2011.
Oh, and play at a relaxed pace and take plenty of breaks.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "caliexile" <nairbtrah1@...> wrote:

No, those were not rhetorical scare questions in the topic. I am just intensely curious about this and was hoping one of the veterans in this group should shed some light. I apologize for the length and personal nature of this post. First, some background:

I live in San Diego and went to my first casino (Barona) a few months ago with a friend for fun. I immediately gravitated towards vp because I had heard it was a better bet than most games and it was entertaining to me to do the math (just estimates in my head) on which cards to hold, chances of getting the hand I wanted, etc. I've always been mathematically inclined (parents both have math phds) and it was fairly obvious that it was possible to crunch the numbers to see what the *perfect* play was and what the expected return would be for each game and paytable.

I googled video poker and was surprised to see how much information there already was. Statistics were available on basically every metric one could need. I also discovered that there are games with positive EV: this floored me. I had been told by my Dad my whole life that the house always wins except for card counting in blackjack, and he usually knows his stuff.

I mastered 2PJW(FP) using trainers at vpgenius because it is 99.92% at my local casino, barely positive when you factor in CB and promotions. I scoured multiple casinos in my area and it was the best bet I could find. After a few months and ending up slightly behind when you factor in gas costs and opportunity costs (i.e. not working) I decided that I'm going to try to make a serious stab at this: a trip to Vegas with a bankroll high enough to make ruin nearly impossible on positive EV machines. I don't plan on living there, but rather staying 2-4 weeks so I can even out the volatility a bit.

Before I pour my heart and soul into this as I use the next couple months to prepare, that illogical/emotional voice inside wants to know: is it too good to be true? Are too many players finding out about this due to the wide availability of information forcing Casinos to replace their high ev games with their opposites? (gimmicky ones like supertimespay, 100 hands, spin poker) It's starting to dawn on me that instead of having bad luck, I just naturally find out about these types of opportunities as they reach the general public thus losing their profitability.

If that's not what's happening here, I'd also appreciate it if someone could recommend hotels best for a few trial weekend trips I'd like to do before committing to a longer stay.