I'm going to chime in on this thread in a bit of a hypothetical guise.
I'm not familariar with Ak-Chin so I'm not speaking from direct
experience.
I agree with Rob that in patronizing the casino you're entering into a
bit of a crap shoot. Without a regulatory body, no matter how weak, a
key incentive for a casino to stay "fair" is removed. Profit is a
strong motivation for a casino to take any action that shifts the game
in its favor.
Take the example of Washington State casinos. Any knowledgable player
realizes that the vp machines there don't follow the strict
probabilities of a random deal. However, the typical player is
sufficiently naive to think the machines are fair -- at least with the
confidence they'd have in walking into any NV casino. But an
important factor here is that non-industry standard equipment is in
use in most WA casinos.
Bottom line, if you play at Ak-Chin, you do so with the knowledge that
there's the risk that the games aren't fair.
···
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As far as those 10/7's at Ak-Chin and the steady number of players who
play them, well, the casino potentially could gaff the machines to
increase hold by a percent or two without individual play being
noticably affected. It's a game where variability from session to
session of 10% is all too common for such a "gaff" to be anything but
a modest aberation relative to that.
Now, it's true that if the frequency of royals were cut in half or
more, that people would eventually sit around and grouse that they
rarely hit -- and before long, the players would thin out. But, cut
the frequency of flushes and straights by only 10% and casino hold is
increased about 2%. Nobody is going to notice anything other than
that they do a little more poorly as a whole than they'd like.
Profitable sessions will likely be cut by as much as half, but they're
still going to occur frequently enough for people to be encourged that
next time they just might hit big, given the typical optimism with
which people walk into a casino.
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Now, all that said, there are a couple of significant reasons why
there's cause for only nominal concern at Ak-Chin (not negligible,
mind you).
First is the general management by Harrah's. Even if not involved in
day to day operations, they bear responsibility should it get out that
the machines have been tampered with (say, through exposure by a
disgruntled employee). Harrah's is a savvy operation who has a keen
eye on their public profile. That should provide strong incentive for
oversight when it comes to fairness of machine equipment.
Second, and in my mind more critical, if we're talking about industry
standard equipment (IGT, Sigma, etc.) then I take a considerable
degree of comfort in the integrity of the game. They're not designed
to permit the casino to manipulate hand frequencies as some of the
non-standard machines are. It's necessary to replace the programmed
chip in the machine with a non-authorized replacement.
That's certainly possible. But I have every reason to believe that a
firm such as IGT employs algorithms in it's equipment that would make
such a chip very difficult to design. Plus, any outfit that designs
and manufactures such a chip is damn likely to be a fly-by-night
operation -- one in which a casino should have second thoughts about
making an investment (espeically given the potential that the chip
might screw up in a way that brings attention to its not being authentic).
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These two considerations by no means rule out the possibility that the
casino may gaff the machines. As I said, walk into the casino and you
do so with an understanding that this could be the case. Rob makes an
excellent case in saying that the fact that they inventory 10/7, when
casinos for the most part are loathe to do so, provides reasonable
pause for thought.
However, given general management by a reputable company and the
deployment of industry standard equipment and I'd probably play there
if I had the inclination during a visit to the area. But I wouldn't
make a habit of consistent play if I were a local -- LV is just too close.
- Harry
Rob Singer wrote:
Correct. I do not for a minute believe the 10/7's pay out a
theoretical 100.17% at Ak-Chin. Nothing is for certain, but the place
is unregulated except by the Indians--who won't disclose anything
about how they do it. I spent 1/2 hour on KTAR radio in Phx. debating
that subject, and they never answered my question without being
nebulous. Why are there so many players at that circle of games? Why
wouldn't there be? Most players don't know what they're doing anyway.
Those who do may WANT the games to be on the level just so they have
excuses to play. Other knowledgable players may not agree with me, but
I know of no one else who has delved into the Indian system there for
answers. And 10/7 looks a whole lot better than their other pay
tables. The final word to me is always to play ONLY where you are
reasonably sure you are getting a fair shake. Nevada is the only place
where I have such faith.