vpFREE2 Forums

Video poker expected value worksheet

#1

I was going through my offers and such tonight, planning my next trip, when I decided it'd be easier if I could get a look at my expected returns based on amount of play. I put together an Excel worksheet, and I'd love it if you guys could take a look at it to see if you notice any obvious mistakes.

http://www.mythlabb.com/Personal/vp_ev.xlsx

It's in Excel 2007 format, so you'll need the newest version to view it.

The worksheet has nine spaces at the top -- you input the amount of free play you'll get for the trip, your food comp per night (if you only have it for a limited amount of nights, manipulate it so that it works out), the value of any additional perks (show tickets, etc), the number of nights you're comped, your expected coin-in, how much the room normally costs, and your approximate hands per hour. The spreadsheet then determines what the expected return of your trip will be for several games, ranging from 9/6 Jacks down to 6/5 Jacks. It accounts for the number of hands you're expected to play based on your coin-in, and looks at that number compared to the RF frequency to determine your "true EV" of the game. It'll also tell you how long you'll be playing in order to reach your EV, at different levels of play.

I think I've got everything right, and I included some sample numbers to show you what I mean. But if anyone can take a peek, I'd greatly appreciate it!

#2

will@...> wrote:

I was going through my offers and such tonight, planning my next
trip, when I decided it'd be easier if I could get a look at my
expected returns based on amount of play. I put together an Excel
worksheet, and I'd love it if you guys could take a look at it to
see if you notice any obvious mistakes.

http://www.mythlabb.com/Personal/vp_ev.xlsx

A couple of quick observations: It looks like the heart of your EV calculation is to sum:

ER if there's no RF (97.56%) x chance of no RF x coin-in
+ ER otherwise (99.54%) x likelihood of getting at least 1 RF x coin-in.

The second part of the sum is incorrect. 99.54% is the overall ER for the game, not the ER for those session in which at least 1 RF is hit. That percentage would be a good deal higher.

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A hint that this was incorrect is that you're getting different EV's for a fixed amount of coin-in, depending upon the denomination played. EV should reflect a fixed percentage of coin-in and not vary based only upon the wager per hand.

There's a secondary problem in that the probabilities of a session without a RF is incorrectly calculated. It should be [(RFcyc - 1)/RFcyc]^sess_hds.

-> But the key thing to realize is that your EV for each hand played, in advance of play, is the same whether that hand should yield a RF or not. Using the overall game ER for that calculation against total planned coin-in will then yield the same result irrespective of denomination.

#3

"But the key thing to realize is that your EV for each hand played, in advance of play, is the same whether that hand should yield a RF or not. Using the overall game ER for that calculation against total planned coin-in will then yield the same result irrespective of denomination."

This I don't understand. The way the formula I've got works is this -- if you're expected to play $20,000 coin-in, you'll be playing many fewer hands, and therefore are less likely to hit a RF on that particular session. I've got the EV of play where you DO hit a RF, the EV of play where you do not, and the percent chance of hitting a RF based on the number of hands.

So, the formula is ((EVrf * %rf) + (EVnrf * %nrf)), where %rf + %nrf = 100% (since you're always either going to hit one or not going to hit one).

It makes sense to me that the lower the denomination you play, the more hands you'll be playing to hit the same coin-in, and therefore the greater your chances of hitting a Royal (and therefore attaining the percentage that includes it).

No?

#4

some_bitch_already_took_sumorez" wrote:

"But the key thing to realize is that your EV for each hand played, in advance of play, is the same whether that hand should yield a RF or not. Using the overall game ER for that calculation against total planned coin-in will then yield the same result irrespective of denomination."

This I don't understand. The way the formula I've got works is this -- if you're expected to play $20,000 coin-in, you'll be playing many fewer hands, and therefore are less likely to hit a RF on that particular session. I've got the EV of play where you DO hit a RF, the EV of play where you do not, and the percent chance of hitting a RF based on the number of hands.

So, the formula is ((EVrf * %rf) + (EVnrf * %nrf)), where %rf + %nrf = 100% (since you're always either going to hit one or not going to hit one).

It makes sense to me that the lower the denomination you play, the more hands you'll be playing to hit the same coin-in, and therefore the greater your chances of hitting a Royal (and therefore attaining the percentage that includes it).

No?

Ok ... let me start by saying that I'm not interested in tossing the ball back and forth on this one much. So let me try to zero in on the crux of the situation. If I get one solidly across the plate and it gives you food for thought, great!

The formula concept that you outline above is dead on. The problem is that in calculating the EV for those session with a RF you've used 99.54% ER for 9/6 Jacks. That's not the EV for those sessions ... that's the overall ER for all sessions, with and without a RF. Substitute the higher correct value and you're home free.

Calculating that value takes a bit more footwork, but it's not an insurmountable task. (It does need to factor cases in which 1 RF, 2 RF, 3 RF, etc are hit, so is by no means simple ... unless you "back into" the value.)

When you input the proper %, then you'll find that a session of $x coin in will have a fixed EV ... irrespective of the denomination through which the coin is played.

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So fine ... the formula can work. But, once again, my point is that session EV can be directly calculated from the average game ER (99.54% for 9/6 JB) x the session coin in. Period. There's no need to consider the probability that a given session will have 1 or more RF hits (and sum the EV derived from sessions without a RF hit plus the EV from those with hits).

I expect you'll need to trun that around in your brain a bit before you're ready to accept that.

- H.