vpFREE2 Forums

Video Keno an Advantage Play???

#1

That issn't a joke--friend of mine needed help with his tax return, so I help him out. He plays at video keno at MN Indian casinos, so I presumed he'd be getting a healthy refund. Imagine my surprise when I did the math--his refund was only 400$ --he's leaving most of his withheld taxes behind, because on around $50K through (usually 8 quarters a play), he only lost $1200, including only 70$ on over $17000 of play at the cross border grind joint (home of 6-5 JOB). His net, factoring in comps, was better than mine playing VP in NV!! Anyhow, I know in the short term, anyone can win, but my friend's level of play should have been long enough to get ground down, no?

Pretty sure that he was just lucky, and since we can't know the paybacks at the native casinos, true odds are unknown. Not an expert on keno--haven't played it in over a decade, but I'm sure some people here are. You won't see me at a bingo table, although I've heard that's a potential AP.

Cheers!!

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#2

Was your friend playing keno progressives?

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#3

vegaspilgrim wrote: "Pretty sure that he was just lucky, and since we can't know the paybacks at the native casinos, true odds are unknown. Not an expert on keno--haven't played it in over a decade, but I'm sure some people here are. You won't see me at a bingo table, although I've heard that's a potential AP."

Keno is generally a game that you CAN figure out the paybacks based on the paytables, like video poker. There are many variables, your friend may have hit an 8 spot or something, which will keep you going for a while, and he may have received a lot of freeplay which will also keep you going for a while. He may also be a Keno shark, there are certain progressives and bonus machines etc. that are overlays. Keno comes in many flavors, so generally overlays can be found if you look carefully. As for bingo, there are freeroll bingo tournaments, so I guess that would be "potential AP" though personally I don't really know what an "AP" is, other than some bad person that casinos think they have to eliminate at all costs. I know what a professional gambler is, like Bob Dancer, but even he has to keep other gigs going to help pay for his gambling instead of just enjoying retirement playing bingo. But certainly any freeroll tournament is an overlay. "Overlay" is a term I understand. Also there are tournaments which return all fees, plus an add on, these would be overlays. Casinos regularly do overlays for promotional purposes.

As a side note, you can also figure out the return of regular old slots, here's the wizard explaining how this is done:

Deconstructing Lion's Share - Wizard of Odds http://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/lions-share/

http://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/lions-share/

Deconstructing Lion's Share - Wizard of Odds http://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/lions-share/ Lion's Share is a three-reel progressive slot machine found at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Given how old the machine is, and the high rate of tur...

View on wizardofo... http://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/lions-share/
Preview by Yahoo

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#4

Hey Mickey, no they just have fixed pay machines, only progressives there are megabucks and variations thereof. Like I said if they have 95% VP, can't imagine their keno is much better, expecially in MN. Of course my friend's play, while substantial, wouldn't qualify statistically as long term. Can't recall if there is an equivalent to vpfree2.com to figure out keno payoffs.

Thanks again!

#5

vegaspilgrim wrote: "Can't recall if there is an equivalent to vpfree2.com to figure out keno payoffs. "

http://wizardofodds.com/games/keno/calculator/

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#6

Results
MATCHES PRIZE COMBINATIONS PROBABILITY FREQUENCY VARIANCE RETURN
0 0 14,783,142,660 0.063747838353352 15.69 0.502631768964522 0.000000000000000
1 0 51,172,416,900 0.220665594300066 4.53 1.739879200261807 0.000000000000000
2 0 73,379,314,800 0.316426135222737 3.16 2.494921117356554 0.000000000000000
3 0 57,072,800,400 0.246109216284351 4.06 1.940494202388431 0.000000000000000
4 3 26,461,025,640 0.114105182095472 8.76 0.004207752484461 0.342315546286415
5 18 7,560,293,040 0.032601480598706 30.67 7.524350657834292 0.586826650776711
6 132 1,326,367,200 0.005719557999773 174.84 95.462746054031925 0.754981655970038
7 1086 137,210,400 0.000591678413770 1,690.11 694.219227684172211 0.642562757353810
8 14100 7,558,200 0.000032592454996 30,681.95 6,477.125410513952374 0.459553615440558
9 30000 167,960 0.000000724276778 1,380,687.65 651.727080842493251 0.021728303330523
TOTALS 231,900,297,200 1.000000000000000 6.53 7,932.740949793938853 2.807968529158056

Thanks So much....ran the numbers off a screen of a downtown winner, and got the above results. The winner got 8 numbers. Was he playing a good machine?
Haven't been in "Shack's" site since he sold it. Great that calculators are there, but I guess there need to be some instructions for some of us😀.

Could anyone elucidate?

Regardless will check out the payables at nearby casinos to get the answer!!

#7

vegaspilgrim wrote: "Thanks So much....ran the numbers off a screen of a downtown winner, and got the above results. The winner got 8 numbers. Was he playing a good machine?"

You have to know how many "coins" were being bet and how much freeplay, loss rebates, drawing tickets, and other stuff he was getting.

Sometimes you can just beat Keno outright, but mostly you need progressives or some kind of bonuses or certain kinds of promotions. Mickey Crimm has written lots of posts on the subject, mostly about Montana games, but the same concepts apply to other states.

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#8

The Wizard of Odds keno calculator works fine on my laptop but won't work on windows phone. I use this one here on my phone:

http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/casino-games/keno/odds-calculator.html

When you see a keno progressive somewhere its easy to whip the phone out and punch the numbers in to see where the progressive is at percentagewise.

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#9

In my eleven years in Nevada playing machines I blanketed the whole state. I never found an exploitable video keno progressive anywhere. The right manufacturers weren't there. I've been isolated in Montana for almost nine years now. I don't know whats out there for the rest of the country. But I do know what manufacturers you need to look for in the casinos near you. Summit. Fleetwood. Spielo. Grand Vision.

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#10

Mickey wrote: "But I do know what manufacturers you need to look for in the casinos near you. Summit. Fleetwood. Spielo. Grand Vision."

There are Spielos in Nevada, I don't think I've seen the other ones you mention though. Seems like Nevada is slow to adopt machines other than IGT and Bally's (which I think is now owned by IGT anyway).

Spielo's are cool, they usually have some skill elements, which supposedly the millenials like, but really who doesn't like some skill elements in their slots? There is a big conflict, the gaming public wants more skill elements in their gaming while the casinos try to remove all skill elements. The casinos that adopt games with more skill elements will obviously win more customers.

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#11

"...the gaming public wants more skill elements in their gaming while the casinos try to remove all skill elements"

That is definitely true, but the combined experience and knowledge shared by the venerable members of this group shifts the percentages back to our favour!

Back to the original part of the post, since there aren't any progressive keno games in the jurisdictions I referred to, my friend obviously was just VERY lucky in the short term. We'll have to see his results NEXT year!!

Thanks again--will have to get back to NV to check these machines out, though!!

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