vpFREE2 Forums

Venetian No-Play Days?

#21

Absent any other information, by classical statistics (poisson distribution) that would be roughly 3 cycles without a hit or roughly 6 cycles with only one hit or roughly 8 cycles with only 2 hits ... By Bayesian inference, that depends on the difference between your result and the initial expected result.

http://www.google.com/search?q="poisson+distribution"
http://www.google.com/search?q="Bayesian+inference"

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@...> wrote:

And how large of a sample would be required to get a 95% confidence?

#22

Your answer is slanted toward the statistically inclined, which I admire you for. However,it often leaves me still without an answer. I I suspect many others as well. How about an answer in plain English, and specifically, what constitutes a cycle.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@> wrote:
> And how large of a sample would be required to get a 95% confidence?

Absent any other information, by classical statistics (poisson distribution) that would be roughly 3 cycles without a hit or roughly 6 cycles with only one hit or roughly 8 cycles with only 2 hits ... By Bayesian inference, that depends on the difference between your result and the initial expected result.

http://www.google.com/search?q="poisson+distribution"
http://www.google.com/search?q="Bayesian+inference"

#23

<<<Our focus on VP should not be on loose or tight, but on paytables and
<<<comps if the RNG’s for VP are indeed truly equally random in long term
<<<statistics….which they are.>> From: Jean Scott queenofcomps@cox.net
<<That has always been my focus. I don't usually use the words
<<"loose" or
<<"tight" when I talk about VP, but some experts do because that's
<<what most
<<uninformed gamblers understand best.

<<This is what Anthony Curtis said in yesterday's QOD: "The great thing
<<about
<<video poker is that you can tell exactly how "loose" (full pay) or
<<"tight"
<<(less than full pay) every VP machine is simply by reading and analyzing the
<<pay schedule."

You are right Jean...did not mean to imply it was not your focus...on the contrary your focus has been excellent and has brought us excellent information, rewards and comp we otherwise would have overlooked. I guess I was really talking to myself and all others who wrestle with loose and tight. Thank you for your contributions. I guess I had always thought that the RNG in slots were the same in VP and would always be random and therefore could never be loose or tight. I believe if 100 people took a poll and were asked what the definition of each were, they would answer tight means lose your money and loose means win money. As you point out this does not apply with VP because of the paytable and the opportunity to play correct.

···

________________

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#24

Maybe you didn't realize it, but your question was a statistical question. Maybe if you rephrase your question in "plain English", someone can provide a "plain English" answer.

By the way, "cycle" is defined in the FAQ.
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ.htm

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@> wrote:
> > And how large of a sample would be required to get a 95% confidence?
>
> Absent any other information, by classical statistics (poisson distribution) that would be roughly 3 cycles without a hit or roughly 6 cycles with only one hit or roughly 8 cycles with only 2 hits ... By Bayesian inference, that depends on the difference between your result and the initial expected result.
>
> http://www.google.com/search?q="poisson+distribution"
> http://www.google.com/search?q="Bayesian+inference"
>

Your answer is slanted toward the statistically inclined, which I admire you for. However,it often leaves me still without an answer. I I suspect many others as well. How about an answer in plain English, and specifically, what constitutes a cycle.

#25

Of course it was a statistical question. My reference to an English answer was asking for an explanation by you, not a reference to a statitical concept. You have a very good grasp of statistical concepts, but you usually end up citing a reference. It would be nice if you could pass along your knowledge directly and completely rather than citing a reference Especially for one who needs it boiled down to a lower level.

So now for the record, how does vp cycle relate to a slot machine cycle that you were commenting on. I could not find your reference. Perhaps you could quote it here.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@> wrote:
> > > And how large of a sample would be required to get a 95% confidence?
> >
> > Absent any other information, by classical statistics (poisson distribution) that would be roughly 3 cycles without a hit or roughly 6 cycles with only one hit or roughly 8 cycles with only 2 hits ... By Bayesian inference, that depends on the difference between your result and the initial expected result.
> >
> > http://www.google.com/search?q="poisson+distribution"
> > http://www.google.com/search?q="Bayesian+inference"
> >
>
> Your answer is slanted toward the statistically inclined, which I admire you for. However,it often leaves me still without an answer. I I suspect many others as well. How about an answer in plain English, and specifically, what constitutes a cycle.

Maybe you didn't realize it, but your question was a statistical question. Maybe if you rephrase your question in "plain English", someone can provide a "plain English" answer.

By the way, "cycle" is defined in the FAQ.
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/FAQ.htm

#26

Same concept. The cycle for royals could be 40,000 hands, depends on the game, strategy and whether or not the deal is fair. The cycle for red, white, and blue could be 10,000 hands, depends on how the machine has been set (tight or loose). Nevada casinos are legally allowed to set the cycle times of slots to just about anything, for video poker changing the cycle times is technically illegal and amounts to an unfair deal (like dealing seconds, etc.), but it has been done and is a matter of public record.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@...> wrote:

So now for the record, how does vp cycle relate to a slot machine cycle that you were commenting on.

#27

You still did not answer my question. You stated it in cycles, but I do not think you have any idea as to how many pulls per cycle. My question was what would be the sample size, not how many cycles. I do not think without further info regarding cycles it would be a practical approach to determine it by experimentation as you states

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@> wrote:
> And how large of a sample would be required to get a 95% confidence?

Absent any other information, by classical statistics (poisson distribution) that would be roughly 3 cycles without a hit or roughly 6 cycles with only one hit or roughly 8 cycles with only 2 hits ... By Bayesian inference, that depends on the difference between your result and the initial expected result.

http://www.google.com/search?q="poisson+distribution"
http://www.google.com/search?q="Bayesian+inference"

#28

I heard of some alleged work being done to determine tightness and looseness of some slot machines by experimentation. But, it was alleged the experimenters had some extra info that facilitated the experiment. NOTI, you seem to have a library of gambling related articles, that perhaps you could call up to confirm the allegations.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@> wrote:
> > And how large of a sample would be required to get a 95% confidence?
>
> Absent any other information, by classical statistics (poisson distribution) that would be roughly 3 cycles without a hit or roughly 6 cycles with only one hit or roughly 8 cycles with only 2 hits ... By Bayesian inference, that depends on the difference between your result and the initial expected result.
>
> http://www.google.com/search?q="poisson+distribution"
> http://www.google.com/search?q="Bayesian+inference"
>

You still did not answer my question. You stated it in cycles, but I do not think you have any idea as to how many pulls per cycle. My question was what would be the sample size, not how many cycles. I do not think without further info regarding cycles it would be a practical approach to determine it by experimentation as you states

#29

OK, I'm gonna go with the wikipedia article on Statistical Inference:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_inference

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@> wrote:
> > > And how large of a sample would be required to get a 95% confidence?
> >
> > Absent any other information, by classical statistics (poisson distribution) that would be roughly 3 cycles without a hit or roughly 6 cycles with only one hit or roughly 8 cycles with only 2 hits ... By Bayesian inference, that depends on the difference between your result and the initial expected result.
> >
> > http://www.google.com/search?q="poisson+distribution"
> > http://www.google.com/search?q="Bayesian+inference"
> >
>
> You still did not answer my question. You stated it in cycles, but I do not think you have any idea as to how many pulls per cycle. My question was what would be the sample size, not how many cycles. I do not think without further info regarding cycles it would be a practical approach to determine it by experimentation as you states
>

I heard of some alleged work being done to determine tightness and looseness of some slot machines by experimentation. But, it was alleged the experimenters had some extra info that facilitated the experiment. NOTI, you seem to have a library of gambling related articles, that perhaps you could call up to confirm the allegations.

#30

So does this mean you cannot answer my question?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@> wrote:
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
> > >
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@> wrote:
> > > > And how large of a sample would be required to get a 95% confidence?
> > >
> > > Absent any other information, by classical statistics (poisson distribution) that would be roughly 3 cycles without a hit or roughly 6 cycles with only one hit or roughly 8 cycles with only 2 hits ... By Bayesian inference, that depends on the difference between your result and the initial expected result.
> > >
> > > http://www.google.com/search?q="poisson+distribution"
> > > http://www.google.com/search?q="Bayesian+inference"
> > >
> >
> > You still did not answer my question. You stated it in cycles, but I do not think you have any idea as to how many pulls per cycle. My question was what would be the sample size, not how many cycles. I do not think without further info regarding cycles it would be a practical approach to determine it by experimentation as you states
> >
>
> I heard of some alleged work being done to determine tightness and looseness of some slot machines by experimentation. But, it was alleged the experimenters had some extra info that facilitated the experiment. NOTI, you seem to have a library of gambling related articles, that perhaps you could call up to confirm the allegations.
>

OK, I'm gonna go with the wikipedia article on Statistical Inference:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_inference