I am trying to decide whether to cycle $100,000 on my upcoming Atlantis Reno trip on Bonus Poker Deluxe (99.64%) nickel hundred-play with a 32.13 variance or Jacks Or Better (99.54%) nickel hundred-play with a 19.51 variance.
As someone not up with all that standard deviation stuff can someone explain to me the practical differences in the expected results of these games so I can better make a choice as to which one I cycle my money through?
Variance question
Very interesting question. You are going to play 400,000 hands but if you play 100 lines at a time, you only get 4000 dealt hands. So, even though your total hands played is about 10 royal cycles, your dealt hands is a much, much smaller number.
Your expected value for Bonus Poker Deluxe is $100 better than your expected value for Jacks or better ( $100,000 * ( %99.64 - %99.54) ). The variance is significantly higher on BPD.
The only difference between the two games is the quad payout and the 2 pair payout.
Myself, I would play the jacks. ( There would have to be some other reason to play. JOB will average a $460 loss ). I don't think the extra variance is worth the extra EV. If the choices were 8/5 Super Aces vs 9/6 JOB, I would probably play the Super Aces. I'm getting .4% better return in exchange for much higher variance.
I didn't give exact numbers because I don't believe 100 play variance numbers are available. Dunbar is working on it but it seems to be a pretty daunting task. When his new risk analyser is available and will handle multiplay, I will definitely get a copy.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mike" <melbedewy1226@...> wrote:
I am trying to decide whether to cycle $100,000 on my upcoming Atlantis Reno trip on Bonus Poker Deluxe (99.64%) nickel hundred-play with a 32.13 variance or Jacks Or Better (99.54%) nickel hundred-play with a 19.51 variance.
As someone not up with all that standard deviation stuff can someone explain to me the practical differences in the expected results of these games so I can better make a choice as to which one I cycle my money through?
Thanks for your imput. Any other thoughts are welcome.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote:
Myself, I would play the jacks.
Are both games on the same machine? If so maybe $50K action on each game? (of course if I went that way I'd likely I'd get dealt an annoying number of quads in JOB and thousands of 2-pair starts in BDLX)
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mike" <melbedewy1226@...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@> wrote:
>
>
> Myself, I would play the jacks.Thanks for your imput. Any other thoughts are welcome.
You didn't mention your bankroll. From your question, it seems you are worried about fluctuations. With unlimited bankroll, the obvious choice is the Bonus Poker Deluxe. Even with a $2,000 bankroll, Bonus Poker Deluxe is the much better choice.
I know it is 100 line, but if it were just single line and assuming 0.5% cashback, the 1% ROR bankroll for JOB would be 25,350, but only 12900 for BPD. And from a Dunbar spreadsheet simulation for single line, 400,000 hands,0.5% cb, you would have a 2% chance of losing 80-100% of 2k bankroll in BPD, but 0% for JOB. You have 47% chance of losing with BPD and 48% for JOB.
If you only have $500, you run a good chance to go broke playing either game, but more likely with BPD.
Bottom line, if you have 1k or more I would play BPD. If you have 500 or less, you probably shouldnt be playing at all, but if your goal is to try and get 100k coin in, then play the JOB. If your goal is to try and lose the least, then play BPD.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mike" <melbedewy1226@...> wrote:
I am trying to decide whether to cycle $100,000 on my upcoming Atlantis Reno trip on Bonus Poker Deluxe (99.64%) nickel hundred-play with a 32.13 variance or Jacks Or Better (99.54%) nickel hundred-play with a 19.51 variance.
As someone not up with all that standard deviation stuff can someone explain to me the practical differences in the expected results of these games so I can better make a choice as to which one I cycle my money through?