vpFREE2 Forums

Variance of Pick 'em

#1

On my trip later this month, I am going to try to get established at the Las
Vegas Hilton, and have been practicing Pick 'em poker on Winpoker.

I chose Pick 'em because I read that the variance is low. I presumed that
this meant that the swings would tend to be less severe than games like
deuces or DB. However, I have been experiencing very ugly losses (350 coins
and more) on Winpoker. I wonder if this is an aberration or if this is the
nature of the game.

My first thought was to play at the $1 level, but if I have to expect 350
coin swings in a single session, perhaps I should stick to quarters.

Any comments, clarifications, and general comments about pick 'em are
welcome.

Thanks

Andrew

#2

Hi. Someone who isn't as rusty on their math skills can explain it better than I can. But Pick Em does have larger swings than "regular" games like Jacks or Better or Bonus Poker. I don't think it's as severe as Deuces Wild or Double Bonus, but I've had tremendous swings. Some of them have been positive, like three straight flushes in one week!
   If you have Win Poker, you can click on "analyze" on each game that will give a figure for volatility. But someone explained to me that Pick Em is different case, because it has low volatility and high variance (or the other way around), but I don't remember the details.
   Whether you play dollars or quarters is determined by your bankroll and your intestinal fortitude.
   good luck

Elaine

I chose Pick 'em because I read that the variance is low. I presumed that
this meant that the swings would tend to be less severe than games like
deuces or DB. However, I have been experiencing very ugly losses (350 coins
and more) on Winpoker. I wonder if this is an aberration or if this is the
nature of the game.

My first thought was to play at the $1 level, but if I have to expect 350
coin swings in a single session, perhaps I should stick to quarters.

Any comments, clarifications, and general comments about pick 'em are
welcome.

Thanks

Andrew

···

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

It's the nature of the game.

See Jazbo's article on volatility at

/Jazbo.com/videopoker/

Also look at Winpoker's "analyze game" feature. You'll notice that
the RF and SF only account for a combined 1% of the return, leaving
99% for the other hands,

BUT:
Quads occur every 2,360 hands. I've personally gone over 7,000 hands
without them (3 cycles). Remove the 5% that they contibute to the
payback, and you're looking at a (short-term) 94% ER.

Same logic goes for FH/FL/ST in the very short term ie - an hour or
so of play. Combined, they represent almost 15% of the payback, and
on average, you should hit one of the 3 every 97 hands. In your bad
sessions, you're likely going 2-300 hands without them and are
looking at a payback rate of less than 80%. Put another way, expect
to lose 1 coin per hand of maxcoin play.

Your MINIMUM session bankroll should be 400 units.

See Jazbo's article - by doubling your session stake, you can expect
much more than a doubling of hands played before busting.

This all comes down to your expectations based on hands played. You
want to have a bankroll large enough to handle a "reasonable"
drought of big hands.

What's "reasonable", in my opinion, and based on considerable Pickem
experience, is;

over 500 hands expect no quads, no FH - YOU LOSE maybe 10% - 20%
over 5,000 hands expect reasonable FH, maybe no quads - lose 2% - 5%
over 50,000 hands, expect reasonable quads, maybe no SF - lose 1%
over 500,000 hands, expect reasonable SF, maybe no RF - Lose .5%

How much is this in actual dollars?

Hands At $1.00 At $.25

500 -$250+ -$63
5000 -$1,250+ -$312
50000 -$2,500 -625
500000 -$12,500 -$3,125

These numbers ignore cashback - don't underestimate it's importance.
Where I play, cashback is 0.5%. Over the half-million hands without
the RF, my CB would be $12,500. Result? Even in a drought, you
wouldn't expect to be out-of-pocket in the long run.

I'm still waiting for my first RF at Pickem, but I'm ahead money on
the game.

Regards,

Brian Lavoie

···

--- "Andrew M. Skier" <amskier@mindspring.com> wrote:

I chose Pick 'em because I read that the variance is low.
However, I have been experiencing very ugly losses (350 coins and
more) on Winpoker. I wonder if this is an aberration or if this
is the nature of the game.

__________________________________________________
Do you Yahoo!?
Faith Hill - Exclusive Performances, Videos & More
http://faith.yahoo.com

#4

Andrew,

Bad news; you ain't seen nothing yet. According to Effen Dolts'
analysis, you have a 1% chance of losing 295 units in a 2048 hand
session of pick'em. That translates to $368.75 playing quarters and
$1475 playing dollars. Pick'em has relatively low variance, but that
doesn't help much in predicting relative bankroll swings until you
get well up into hundreds of thousands of hands. Within a few hour
session, pickem is actually much more unpredictable than jacks or
better, despite lower variance.

A loss of 350 coins in 500 hands is a VERY common occurance on any 5
coin single line video poker game. Play a while and you will see
much worse. Before starting (or continuing) to play for real money,
you should get a handle on what swings to expect. Among many free
resources, you might find Jazbo's site, www.jazbo.com - Video Poker
Probability Distributions particularly enlightening.

Good luck,

AJ

--- In vpFREE@y..., "Andrew M. Skier" <amskier@m...> wrote:

On my trip later this month, I am going to try to get established

at the Las

Vegas Hilton, and have been practicing Pick 'em poker on Winpoker.

I chose Pick 'em because I read that the variance is low. I

presumed that

this meant that the swings would tend to be less severe than games

like

deuces or DB. However, I have been experiencing very ugly losses

(350 coins

and more) on Winpoker. I wonder if this is an aberration or if

this is the

nature of the game.

My first thought was to play at the $1 level, but if I have to

expect 350

coin swings in a single session, perhaps I should stick to quarters.

Any comments, clarifications, and general comments about pick 'em

are

···

welcome.

Thanks

Andrew

#5

It is true that the variance of Pick 'Em is lower than other games,
including 9/6 JB. Variance and standard deviation are great measures
of volatility when your outcomes are distributed normally.
Unfortunately, it takes quite a few hands before your results really
start to look like a normal distribution; exactly how many I don't
know.

With all that said, there's one more thing you should consider about
Pick 'Em. It's possible that you can lose more quickly because you
PLAY more quickly. With only 2 choices to consider per hand, you
probably get a lot more in action within a given time frame. In a
bad session, this means you can lose more per hour than you would
ordinarily.

By the way, I think your idea of getting established at the LV Hilton
playing FP Pick 'Em is great. In fact, I've considered it myself for
future trips. Based on the vpFREE database, it looks like one good
hour of dollar Pick 'Em could get your room comped, and another hour
might get limited RFB. Let us know how it goes if you decide to give
it a go!