I was wondering if anyone could help me with variance comparisons for multi hand games.
Let's say you have a game in the same denomination like quarters. What is the difference is variance in betting units between 1,3,5 and 10 handed?
I am also wondering about comparing games with the same total dollar in each hand but different numbers of hands. Say 1 hand dollar versus 100 hand penny, 50 hand two cent or ten handed 10 cent.
Is there a general way of figuring these types of things out?
Try the Wizard of Odds website.
He has an article on "Standard Deviation of n-play Video Poker".
________________________________
From: vpplayer88 <vpplayer88@yahoo.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, September 10, 2012 10:27:56 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Variance for multi-hand games
I was wondering if anyone could help me with variance comparisons for multi hand games.
Let's say you have a game in the same denomination like quarters. What is the difference is variance in betting units between 1,3,5 and 10 handed?
I am also wondering about comparing games with the same total dollar in each hand but different numbers of hands. Say 1 hand dollar versus 100 hand penny, 50 hand two cent or ten handed 10 cent.
Is there a general way of figuring these types of things out?
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Yes I saw that. I don't understand how to generate the inputs for the draw and deal variances though. I am not playing one of the three examples, and am interested in the results for a custom paytable. Do you know how to decompose the two variances for any paytable?
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, BLavoie <blavoie46@...> wrote:
Try the Wizard of Odds website.
He has an article on "Standard Deviation of n-play Video Poker".
________________________________
From: vpplayer88 <vpplayer88@...>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, September 10, 2012 10:27:56 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Variance for multi-hand gamesÂ
I was wondering if anyone could help me with variance comparisons for multi hand games.Let's say you have a game in the same denomination like quarters. What is the difference is variance in betting units between 1,3,5 and 10 handed?
I am also wondering about comparing games with the same total dollar in each hand but different numbers of hands. Say 1 hand dollar versus 100 hand penny, 50 hand two cent or ten handed 10 cent.
Is there a general way of figuring these types of things out?
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
You might want to take a look at the following website:
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: vpplayer88@yahoo.com
Date: Mon, 10 Sep 2012 21:54:22 +0000
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Variance for multi-hand gamesYes I saw that. I don't understand how to generate the inputs for the draw and deal variances though. I am not playing one of the three examples, and am interested in the results for a custom paytable. Do you know how to decompose the two variances for any paytable?
>
> Try the Wizard of Odds website.
>
> He has an article on "Standard Deviation of n-play Video Poker".
>
>
>
> ________________________________
> From: vpplayer88 <vpplayer88@...>
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Monday, September 10, 2012 10:27:56 AM
> Subject: [vpFREE] Variance for multi-hand games
>
>
> Â
> I was wondering if anyone could help me with variance comparisons for multi hand games.
>
> Let's say you have a game in the same denomination like quarters. What is the difference is variance in betting units between 1,3,5 and 10 handed?
>
> I am also wondering about comparing games with the same total dollar in each hand but different numbers of hands. Say 1 hand dollar versus 100 hand penny, 50 hand two cent or ten handed 10 cent.
>
> Is there a general way of figuring these types of things out?
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>------------------------------------
vpFREE Links: http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/Links.htm
Yahoo! Groups Links
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, BLavoie <blavoie46@...> wrote:
Jazbo has values for the covariance, but the games Jazbo lists are probably not the games you play. It would be nice to have variance and covariance listed in the games database, at least for the popular N-play games.
Covariance cannot be estimated from variance. You have to have software that calculates the probabilities of each outcome for the optimum hold for each hand in order to get the covariances. This is tens of millions of values, so it cannot be determined by hand.
If you do have software that will do this calculation, you will still not have the distribution of payoffs for the game. I prefer to use a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the total pay distribution for multi-play games. Then, I can also calculate the percentage of return that result in W2-G payoffs, as well as W2-G frequency. This is important in states with nasty tax policies.
Finally, spin poker covariance is not the same as regular N-play covariance. Spin poker draws are correlated.
Effen
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@...> wrote:
You might want to take a look at the following website:
Calculate the dealt (5 card stud) probabilities, you have the paytable and you can calculate EV's, so then you can calculate the dealt variance. The draw variance is then the total one hand variance minus the dealt variance. Then the variance of any N-play is dealt variance + draw variance/N.
deuces = 3 + 23/N
double bonus = 3 + 25/N
jacks = 2 + 18/N
super aces bonus = 6 + 57/N
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Effen D" <effend@...> wrote:
Jazbo has values for the covariance, but the games Jazbo lists are probably not the games you play. It would be nice to have variance and covariance listed in the games database, at least for the popular N-play games.
Covariance cannot be estimated from variance. You have to have software that calculates the probabilities of each outcome for the optimum hold for each hand in order to get the covariances. This is tens of millions of values, so it cannot be determined by hand.
If you do have software that will do this calculation, you will still not have the distribution of payoffs for the game. I prefer to use a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the total pay distribution for multi-play games. Then, I can also calculate the percentage of return that result in W2-G payoffs, as well as W2-G frequency. This is important in states with nasty tax policies.
Finally, spin poker covariance is not the same as regular N-play covariance. Spin poker draws are correlated.
Effen
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
>
>
> You might want to take a look at the following website:
>
> http://www.jazbo.com/
>
I was hoping for an easier way than calculating the Evs and probabilities of all possible dealt hands. Like maybe a website or software that would do this automatically. I understand how to in principle, but it's not really practical, especially if you want to do it relatively quickly.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
Calculate the dealt (5 card stud) probabilities, you have the paytable and you can calculate EV's, so then you can calculate the dealt variance. The draw variance is then the total one hand variance minus the dealt variance. Then the variance of any N-play is dealt variance + draw variance/N.
deuces = 3 + 23/N
double bonus = 3 + 25/N
jacks = 2 + 18/N
super aces bonus = 6 + 57/N--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Effen D" <effend@> wrote:
>
> Jazbo has values for the covariance, but the games Jazbo lists are probably not the games you play. It would be nice to have variance and covariance listed in the games database, at least for the popular N-play games.
>
> Covariance cannot be estimated from variance. You have to have software that calculates the probabilities of each outcome for the optimum hold for each hand in order to get the covariances. This is tens of millions of values, so it cannot be determined by hand.
>
> If you do have software that will do this calculation, you will still not have the distribution of payoffs for the game. I prefer to use a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the total pay distribution for multi-play games. Then, I can also calculate the percentage of return that result in W2-G payoffs, as well as W2-G frequency. This is important in states with nasty tax policies.
>
> Finally, spin poker covariance is not the same as regular N-play covariance. Spin poker draws are correlated.
>
> Effen
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
> >
> >
> > You might want to take a look at the following website:
> >
> > http://www.jazbo.com/
> >
>
Maybe Dan Paymar's new software does it? Maybe the Wizard of Odds is working on a smart phone app that does it? He has an app that gives you the EV and Variance of many games, maybe he could add the dealt variance?
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...> wrote:
I was hoping for an easier way than calculating the Evs and probabilities of all possible dealt hands. Like maybe a website or software that would do this automatically. I understand how to in principle, but it's not really practical, especially if you want to do it relatively quickly.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
> Calculate the dealt (5 card stud) probabilities, you have the paytable and you can calculate EV's, so then you can calculate the dealt variance. The draw variance is then the total one hand variance minus the dealt variance. Then the variance of any N-play is dealt variance + draw variance/N.
>
>
> deuces = 3 + 23/N
> double bonus = 3 + 25/N
> jacks = 2 + 18/N
> super aces bonus = 6 + 57/N
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Effen D" <effend@> wrote:
> >
> > Jazbo has values for the covariance, but the games Jazbo lists are probably not the games you play. It would be nice to have variance and covariance listed in the games database, at least for the popular N-play games.
> >
> > Covariance cannot be estimated from variance. You have to have software that calculates the probabilities of each outcome for the optimum hold for each hand in order to get the covariances. This is tens of millions of values, so it cannot be determined by hand.
> >
> > If you do have software that will do this calculation, you will still not have the distribution of payoffs for the game. I prefer to use a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the total pay distribution for multi-play games. Then, I can also calculate the percentage of return that result in W2-G payoffs, as well as W2-G frequency. This is important in states with nasty tax policies.
> >
> > Finally, spin poker covariance is not the same as regular N-play covariance. Spin poker draws are correlated.
> >
> > Effen
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > > You might want to take a look at the following website:
> > >
> > > http://www.jazbo.com/
> > >
> >
>
I thought a good general rule was that the variance (or standard
deviation?) of an n-line machine is roughly the square root of n times
what it would be on a single line.
vpplayer88 wrote:
I was hoping for an easier way than calculating the Evs and probabilities of all possible dealt hands. Like maybe a website or software that would do this automatically. I understand how to in principle, but it's not really practical, especially if you want to do it relatively quickly.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
Calculate the dealt (5 card stud) probabilities, you have the paytable and you can calculate EV's, so then you can calculate the dealt variance. The draw variance is then the total one hand variance minus the dealt variance. Then the variance of any N-play is dealt variance + draw variance/N.
deuces = 3 + 23/N
double bonus = 3 + 25/N
jacks = 2 + 18/N
super aces bonus = 6 + 57/N--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Effen D" <effend@> wrote:
>
> Jazbo has values for the covariance, but the games Jazbo lists are probably not the games you play. It would be nice to have variance and covariance listed in the games database, at least for the popular N-play games.
>
> Covariance cannot be estimated from variance. You have to have software that calculates the probabilities of each outcome for the optimum hold for each hand in order to get the covariances. This is tens of millions of values, so it cannot be determined by hand.
>
> If you do have software that will do this calculation, you will still not have the distribution of payoffs for the game. I prefer to use a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the total pay distribution for multi-play games. Then, I can also calculate the percentage of return that result in W2-G payoffs, as well as W2-G frequency. This is important in states with nasty tax policies.
>
> Finally, spin poker covariance is not the same as regular N-play covariance. Spin poker draws are correlated.
>
> Effen
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
> >
> >
> > You might want to take a look at the following website:
> >
> > http://www.jazbo.com/
> >
>
You are thinking of an approximation used for independent uncorrelated trials, like coin flips. Your hands on a ten handed machine are obviously correlated and not independent.
And the rule for independent trials is variance grows with N and SD grows with the square root of N.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:
I thought a good general rule was that the variance (or standard
deviation?) of an n-line machine is roughly the square root of n times
what it would be on a single line.vpplayer88 wrote:
>I was hoping for an easier way than calculating the Evs and probabilities of all possible dealt hands. Like maybe a website or software that would do this automatically. I understand how to in principle, but it's not really practical, especially if you want to do it relatively quickly.
>
>--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>>
>> Calculate the dealt (5 card stud) probabilities, you have the paytable and you can calculate EV's, so then you can calculate the dealt variance. The draw variance is then the total one hand variance minus the dealt variance. Then the variance of any N-play is dealt variance + draw variance/N.
>>
>>
>> deuces = 3 + 23/N
>> double bonus = 3 + 25/N
>> jacks = 2 + 18/N
>> super aces bonus = 6 + 57/N
>>
>>
>> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Effen D" <effend@> wrote:
>> >
>> > Jazbo has values for the covariance, but the games Jazbo lists are probably not the games you play. It would be nice to have variance and covariance listed in the games database, at least for the popular N-play games.
>> >
>> > Covariance cannot be estimated from variance. You have to have software that calculates the probabilities of each outcome for the optimum hold for each hand in order to get the covariances. This is tens of millions of values, so it cannot be determined by hand.
>> >
>> > If you do have software that will do this calculation, you will still not have the distribution of payoffs for the game. I prefer to use a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the total pay distribution for multi-play games. Then, I can also calculate the percentage of return that result in W2-G payoffs, as well as W2-G frequency. This is important in states with nasty tax policies.
>> >
>> > Finally, spin poker covariance is not the same as regular N-play covariance. Spin poker draws are correlated.
>> >
>> > Effen
>> >
>> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, kelso 1600 <kelso1600@> wrote:
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > You might want to take a look at the following website:
>> > >
>> > > http://www.jazbo.com/
>> > >
>> >
>>
>
vpplayer ...
In your various posts, you don't specify how you're looking to use multi-hand game variance. It's my guess that you're looking for greater utility than game variance actually presents.
Variance is a strong predictor of relative game volatility for a single (or limited) outcome wager such as in blackjack. However, video poker is typically a composite of several discrete paylines, and as such, variance (a single value descriptor) is a modest predictor of volatility.
For video poker, variance can be a strong predictor over the course of several hundred hours of play. However, it's typically weak when used as a comparative predictor between different games or plays for the duration of a single session.
The most notable example of this disparity is a comparison of a couple of hours of JB vs PE. PE has a significantly lower variance, yet, hour to hour, presents significantly greater bankroll risk in the short term.
Frankly, most players I know find that they can assess multi-hand game volatility, and comfort for their bankroll, through a limited trial of play much faster and more reliably than any extensive examination of variance numbers. And, in particular, 50-line and 100-line machines present a unique opportunity to scale wagers to one's comfort zone.
- H.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpplayer88" <vpplayer88@...> wrote:
You are thinking of an approximation used for independent uncorrelated trials, like coin flips. Your hands on a ten handed machine are obviously correlated and not independent.
And the rule for independent trials is variance grows with N and SD grows with the square root of N.