2b. Re: using strategy sheets in a casino
Date: Fri Jan 30, 2009 7:24 am ((PST))>
> By definition, a strategy sheet gives you the best way (or almost best
> way) to a play a particular game. When a casino puts in 8/5 bonus
> poker, they are expecting to make more than? .83% on the game. 2%
> below optimum is expected payback I have heard quoted. So the casino
> expects to make 2.83% on the game.
>
> If you play without a strategy sheet, the casino has no idea if you
> play well or not. If you do play with a strategy sheet, I'm sure the
> casino figures you for playing above that 2.83% expected house take
> and it certainly seems like you would be a 'less desirable' customer.
>
> In blackjack, if I sit down at a $10 table and proceed to bet $10,
> $10, $75, $75, $10, $10 I will probably draw the attention of the
> pitboss, whether I am a counter, a basic strategy player or just a
> gambler. Drawing attention in casinos mostly works against the player.
>======
That doesn't seem to hold for games like craps and roulette. If you're
playing honestly and wagering above the minimums for a given length of
time, the chances are the pit may well give you attention, which in that
case is to be desired.
Well, the difference is that craps and roulette can't take away from the house edge by bet variation, while blackjack can.
The NON-card counting player WANTS the pit to notice the level of play, and in fact wants them, if there's a trick to it, to think his/her average bet is higher than it actually is (there are a few tricks to doing this, but that's really getting XVP).
Two interesting thoughts on card-counting - First, I've always wondered just how certain a casino feels like it needs to be in order to bar a counter, since there are certainly good basic strategy players who don't count cards but who vary their bets based on instinct, and who are inevitably going to vary them appropriately for the count once in a while, by chance.
I certainly would not want to be a casino that barred a non-counter! There IS technology now where the casino can quantify how sure they want to be -- optical sensors and computers that together can track the play and betting, keep count, identify correct plays and correlate them with what the player does, and give a statistical analysis of the likelihood that a player is counting cards -- don't know if these are in use very many places, but I've heard that Mirage / Treasure Island had them as long as 5-6 years ago, maybe more.
Instinctively, and with no real math behind my number, I would think that there is a good possibility that a 10-15 minute sample of play, analyzed by the computer, could give a 95% certainty of whether the player was no good, a solid basic strategy player but not a card counter, a card counter who plays basic strategy and varies bets based on the count, but doesn't make play variations, or the highest level of player who counts and varies both bet and play based on the count.
Secondly, I THINK one of the things that got me barred early in my counting days was TRYING to avoid recognition - if the pit boss asked me if I had an ID to get a players card and get rated, I'd decline, for example. When I realized the non-counting players were getting rated, asking for comps, etc., I changed my approach, acted (and dressed) like them, and seemed to attract less attention (for a while anyway) - AND got additional "return" on my play by being generously comped (my play at that time got limos, suites, gourmet restaurants, I figured about $600-700 a trip, not counting the room, in additional benefits of playing).
But I got tired of the "work" of not only playing well but keeping up the act as well, and switched to VP -- but we must never forget that the casinos will look to eliminate ANY players on whom they think they will either (1) lose money or in some cases (2) not make enough money.
Look around you and observe how the unskilled players act, and try to mimic them as much as possible. The fewer skilled players the casino thinks there are the better, and it is certainly better for you if they think that you are one of those unskilled players.
--BG
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