hits probability
25 7.9522951%
25+/-5 72.9734035%
25+/-10 96.5139854%
<15 1.2402061%
<10 0.0221477%
hits probability running total
0 1.3887944E-11 1.3887944E-11
1 3.4719860E-10 3.6108654E-10
2 0.0000004% 0.0000005%
3 0.0000036% 0.0000041%
4 0.0000226% 0.0000267%
5 0.0001130% 0.0001397%
6 0.0004709% 0.0006106%
7 0.0016819% 0.0022925%
8 0.0052558% 0.0075483%
9 0.0145994% 0.0221477%
10 0.0364985% 0.0586462%
11 0.0829511% 0.1415973%
12 0.1728149% 0.3144122%
13 0.3323363% 0.6467484%
14 0.5934576% 1.2402061%
15 0.9890961% 2.2293021%
16 1.5454626% 3.7747647%
17 2.2727391% 6.0475038%
18 3.1565821% 9.2040859%
19 4.1533975% 13.3574834%
20 5.1917469% 18.5492303%
21 6.1806510% 24.7298813%
22 7.0234671% 31.7533484%
23 7.6342033% 39.3875517%
24 7.9522951% 47.3398469%
25 7.9522951% 55.2921420%
26 7.6464376% 62.9385796%
27 7.0800349% 70.0186145%
28 6.3214597% 76.3400742%
29 5.4495342% 81.7896084%
30 4.5412785% 86.3308869%
31 3.6623214% 89.9932083%
32 2.8611886% 92.8543969%
33 2.1675671% 95.0219640%
34 1.5937993% 96.6157633%
35 1.1384281% 97.7541914%
35 2.2458086% 100.0000000%
poisson distribution: exp(-cycles) x cycles^hits / hits!