I wonder if someone could tell me the percent chance of this
occurence. 1290 hands of 9/6 JOB -1200 units. Max coins per hand.
I believe this is my worse session based on hands played ever. I
would have kept playing but I ran out of money.
Ugly session of 9/6
For JOB that is really bad, I have been having a terrible year and
have been running a typical (read really horrible) rate of 20 to 30%
loss per hand this year. I have played at least 50,000 hands and cant
seem to hit anything that really matters. I always watch my points
per session and use that to see how many hands I played and compare
that to my actual cash win/loss. Lets hope things start turning
around soon.
Jim
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
I wonder if someone could tell me the percent chance of this
occurence. 1290 hands of 9/6 JOB -1200 units. Max coins per hand.
I believe this is my worse session based on hands played ever. I
would have kept playing but I ran out of money.
this free tool will give you an exact answer to questions like that:
http://www.lotspiech.com/GamblersRuin.html
it's based on 5 coin max bet quarters
i'll assume 1200 units is $300
so, stake=$300, retire=$1000, 1290 hands, results:
busted (-$300) is 0.06% likely after 1290 hands of 5 coin quarter 9/6
job (assuming perfect play)
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
I wonder if someone could tell me the percent chance of this
occurence. 1290 hands of 9/6 JOB -1200 units. Max coins per hand.
I believe this is my worse session based on hands played ever. I
would have kept playing but I ran out of money.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
this free tool will give you an exact answer to questions like
that:
http://www.lotspiech.com/GamblersRuin.html
it's based on 5 coin max bet quarters
i'll assume 1200 units is $300
so, stake=$300, retire=$1000, 1290 hands, results:
busted (-$300) is 0.06% likely after 1290 hands of 5 coin quarter
9/6
job (assuming perfect play)
>
> I wonder if someone could tell me the percent chance of this
> occurence. 1290 hands of 9/6 JOB -1200 units. Max coins per hand.
> I believe this is my worse session based on hands played ever. I
> would have kept playing but I ran out of money.
I only wish it was quarters. It was a denomination much higher than
that. That percentage outcome is so small that sometimes you wonder
if IGT machines are on the level. They are, but it still gives one
pause.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
VpKing77 wrote:
I wonder if someone could tell me the percent chance of this
occurence. 1290 hands of 9/6 JOB -1200 units. Max coins per hand.
I believe this is my worse session based on hands played ever. I
would have kept playing but I ran out of money.
Gee, did you try switching machines (frequently)?
- H. (sorry, couldn't resist)
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
>
results:
> busted (-$300) is 0.06% likely after 1290 hands of 5 coin quarter
9/6
> job (assuming perfect play)
>
> >
I only wish it was quarters. It was a denomination much higher than
that. That percentage outcome is so small that sometimes you wonder
if IGT machines are on the level. They are, but it still gives one
pause.
There is one reason to maybe cheer. The percentage of the outcome is
so low, that it is not too likely you will have an awful lot of
sessions like that one soon; but then, you can never be certain even
of this. I don't know if you believe in it, but in case you do, good
luck.
···
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
I wouldn't assume just because it's an IGT machine that it's on the
level.
My suggestion is that you "out" the machine, publish the machine
number and casino here, maybe some other people have noted problems,
if so maybe some enforcement action can be taken.
Are you sure it was the full correct paytable?
4000-250-125-45-30-20-15-10-5
Not one of those trick machines where 2pair is a push?
And just to make sure I assumed correctly, your 1200 unit loss at max
bet was a 240 bet loss (1200/5)? [bet = actual bet per hand, for
example on 5 coin max bet quarters it is $.25 x 5 = $1.25]
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
>
> this free tool will give you an exact answer to questions like
that:
> http://www.lotspiech.com/GamblersRuin.html
> it's based on 5 coin max bet quarters
> i'll assume 1200 units is $300
> so, stake=$300, retire=$1000, 1290 hands, results:
> busted (-$300) is 0.06% likely after 1290 hands of 5 coin quarter
9/6
> job (assuming perfect play)
>
> >
> > I wonder if someone could tell me the percent chance of this
> > occurence. 1290 hands of 9/6 JOB -1200 units. Max coins per
hand.
> > I believe this is my worse session based on hands played ever.
I
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
> > would have kept playing but I ran out of money.I only wish it was quarters. It was a denomination much higher than
that. That percentage outcome is so small that sometimes you wonder
if IGT machines are on the level. They are, but it still gives one
pause.
If I understand what you're saying, it sounds like the equivalant of
this situation: Single-line quarter machine (5 coins/max bet), you
put in three $100 bills (1200 credits) and they were all gone after
only 1290 hands, about 90 minutes of play at 800 hph.
Sounds like a typical "four of a kind drought" to me. When you can't
hit a 4ok or better on JOB-type games, your money goes away
shockingly fast (it's especially shocking the first time it happens
to you).
I can't answer about the "percent chance" of it happening. I only
know it WILL happen from time to time and there's little you can do
about it. Consider it a learning experience. Or, get pissed off if
you want. The machine won't care one way or the other.
carlos
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
I wonder if someone could tell me the percent chance of this
occurence. 1290 hands of 9/6 JOB -1200 units. Max coins per hand.
I believe this is my worse session based on hands played ever. I
would have kept playing but I ran out of money.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
I wouldn't assume just because it's an IGT machine that it's on the
level.
My suggestion is that you "out" the machine, publish the machine
number and casino here, maybe some other people have noted
problems,
if so maybe some enforcement action can be taken.
Are you sure it was the full correct paytable?
4000-250-125-45-30-20-15-10-5
Not one of those trick machines where 2pair is a push?
And just to make sure I assumed correctly, your 1200 unit loss at
max
bet was a 240 bet loss (1200/5)? [bet = actual bet per hand, for
example on 5 coin max bet quarters it is $.25 x 5 = $1.25]>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
> <nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
> >
> > this free tool will give you an exact answer to questions like
> that:
> > http://www.lotspiech.com/GamblersRuin.html
> > it's based on 5 coin max bet quarters
> > i'll assume 1200 units is $300
> > so, stake=$300, retire=$1000, 1290 hands, results:
> > busted (-$300) is 0.06% likely after 1290 hands of 5 coin
quarter
> 9/6
> > job (assuming perfect play)
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...>
wrote:
> > >
> > > I wonder if someone could tell me the percent chance of this
> > > occurence. 1290 hands of 9/6 JOB -1200 units. Max coins per
hand.
> > > I believe this is my worse session based on hands played
ever.
I
> > > would have kept playing but I ran out of money.
>
> I only wish it was quarters. It was a denomination much higher
than
> that. That percentage outcome is so small that sometimes you
wonder
> if IGT machines are on the level. They are, but it still gives
one
> pause.
There is nothing wrong with the machine. I have won 600 units on it
in a fairly short session in the past.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
If I understand what you're saying, it sounds like the equivalant
of
this situation: Single-line quarter machine (5 coins/max bet),
you
put in three $100 bills (1200 credits) and they were all gone
after
only 1290 hands, about 90 minutes of play at 800 hph.
Sounds like a typical "four of a kind drought" to me. When you
can't
hit a 4ok or better on JOB-type games, your money goes away
shockingly fast (it's especially shocking the first time it
happens
to you).
I can't answer about the "percent chance" of it happening. I only
know it WILL happen from time to time and there's little you can
do
about it. Consider it a learning experience. Or, get pissed off
if
you want. The machine won't care one way or the other.
carlos
>
> I wonder if someone could tell me the percent chance of this
> occurence. 1290 hands of 9/6 JOB -1200 units. Max coins per hand.
> I believe this is my worse session based on hands played ever. I
> would have kept playing but I ran out of money.
I hit one 4 of a kind in 1290 hands.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "calebr0n" <calebr0n@y...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
Another way to determine (roughly) the odds of your bad luck
is to use the Game Analysis table generated by Winpoker/Frugal VP for
9/6 JorB. Specifically, look at the %ofReturn column. But I need to
know the denomination of the game ... was it $1, $2, $5 or ?
I'll assume it's $1. The GAT says 1.98% of the long run return is
attributed to a RF (every 40,390 hands), .55% to a SF (every 9148
hands), and 5.91% to Quads (every 423 hands). Since you got only 1
Quad, instead of the expected 3, reduce 5.91% by 1/3rd to 3.94%.
These percents add to 6.47%. On a dollar machine you played 1290
hands and wagered a total of $6450. 6.47% of $6450 is $417. That
indicates you should still have $1200 - $417 = $783 left. But if you
were playing a $5 game, the expectation is to lose 6.47% of $32,250,
or $2086. So at the $5 level, you did better than normal. How
poorly you did (if you did do poorly) depends on the amount wagered
each of the 1290 games.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
I hit one 4 of a kind in 1290 hands.
>
> I hit one 4 of a kind in 1290 hands.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Another way to determine (roughly) the odds of your bad luck
is to use the Game Analysis table generated by Winpoker/Frugal VP
for
9/6 JorB. Specifically, look at the %ofReturn column. But I need
to
know the denomination of the game ... was it $1, $2, $5 or ?
I'll assume it's $1. The GAT says 1.98% of the long run return is
attributed to a RF (every 40,390 hands), .55% to a SF (every 9148
hands), and 5.91% to Quads (every 423 hands). Since you got only
1
Quad, instead of the expected 3, reduce 5.91% by 1/3rd to 3.94%.
These percents add to 6.47%. On a dollar machine you played 1290
hands and wagered a total of $6450. 6.47% of $6450 is $417. That
indicates you should still have $1200 - $417 = $783 left. But if
you
were playing a $5 game, the expectation is to lose 6.47% of
$32,250,
or $2086. So at the $5 level, you did better than normal. How
poorly you did (if you did do poorly) depends on the amount
wagered
each of the 1290 games.
$5 9/6 max coin. No matter what denomination it is losing 1200 coins
after 1290 hands is horrible. I learned a valuable lesson. Whatever
you bring for a session normally, double it. You never know when you
might run into 1500-1 shot. The odds of it happening are longer than
that but 1500-1 sounds like a good round number.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
$5 9/6 max coin. No matter what denomination it is losing 1200
coins
after 1290 hands is horrible. I learned a valuable lesson. Whatever
you bring for a session normally, double it. You never know when
you
might run into 1500-1 shot. The odds of it happening are longer
than
that but 1500-1 sounds like a good round number.
1500-1 is about the same odds as hitting five out of five numbers at
Keno. That has sometimes happened to me on the first Keno game played
on the day, so I have experienced what you have, but on the
profitable side. I think your machine can be said to have had the
evil eye (mal'occhio). Anyway, your problem had me spend a little
time earlier today with the Frugal software. I decided to do as many
simulations of 1,290 games of single line 9/6 JB until I had a
session losing 1,200 credits. These are the results of my simulations:
-280
65
3610
80
-180
-75
230
3610
-270
130
-560
-470
-140
-455
-550
-100
210
-705
80
-410
-110
-615
-750
-310
1055
235
110
-540
-520
45
-220
-700
385
-10
-405
30
265
3495
95
-450
-415
-270
150
-445
-1190 (BINGO!!!!!!!)
I was getting tired of the simulations, so I decided -1190 was close
enough to -1200, . I was not as lucky here -on the negative side- as
I have been at Keno sometimes. On the other hand, I was lucky with
this set of Frugal sessions; you can see that in 57,050 games three
Royals were hit, that is roughly twice as many as average. My
favorite session of the 45 above is the one up 1,055 credits, that
one had ten Quads and two Straight flushes, but no Royals; I like a
good winning session without a Royal, it gives you profit and
generates lots of comps. In any case, I would like in a real casino
to have that session, plus the ones with Royals, plus all the
positive ones, specially on a five dollar machine, or better on a
hundred dollar machine; now someone provide a sieve to let only those
positive sessions by, Erastothenes won't do it. So, you see, math
does not help you when you need it, if you need to make, not lose,
six thousand bucks.
You say you should bring twice as much money. I agree the more money
you bring, the longer you play -though it is also true that sometimes
you can play very long with little money. Look at the last six
sessions above. You might bring to the machine twice what you had in
the bad session you reported, played many more hours, and lose it
just the same. They call it gambling. Thanks for your post, it has
been amusing playing with it. Hope your next sessions are good
ones.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
>
> >
> > I hit one 4 of a kind in 1290 hands.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> Another way to determine (roughly) the odds of your bad luck
> is to use the Game Analysis table generated by Winpoker/Frugal VP
for
> 9/6 JorB. Specifically, look at the %ofReturn column. But I
need
to
> know the denomination of the game ... was it $1, $2, $5 or ?
>
> I'll assume it's $1. The GAT says 1.98% of the long run return
is
> attributed to a RF (every 40,390 hands), .55% to a SF (every 9148
> hands), and 5.91% to Quads (every 423 hands). Since you got only
1
> Quad, instead of the expected 3, reduce 5.91% by 1/3rd to 3.94%.
> These percents add to 6.47%. On a dollar machine you played 1290
> hands and wagered a total of $6450. 6.47% of $6450 is $417.
That
> indicates you should still have $1200 - $417 = $783 left. But if
you
> were playing a $5 game, the expectation is to lose 6.47% of
$32,250,
> or $2086. So at the $5 level, you did better than normal. How
> poorly you did (if you did do poorly) depends on the amount
wagered
> each of the 1290 games.$5 9/6 max coin. No matter what denomination it is losing 1200
coins
after 1290 hands is horrible. I learned a valuable lesson. Whatever
you bring for a session normally, double it. You never know when
you
might run into 1500-1 shot. The odds of it happening are longer
than
that but 1500-1 sounds like a good round number.
I should have read your first post more carefully, because I
misinterpretated your -1200 to mean $1200. Instead, you evidently
meant $5 x -1200 coins, or -$6000, which is 3 times greater than the
predicted -$2086 using the method in my post. That truly was a very
poor session!
Just curious ... did that happen in an Indian casino? If so, what
state? I had something similar happen to me once, 5-6 years ago, in
an Oregon Indian casino.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "VpKing77" <vpking77@y...> wrote: