win poker shows a 4500 hand cycle for the four deuce payout,
Im currently at 32000 hands without a set of deuces, could one of our math whizzes calculate the odds of this occuring?have I beat the record
for longest streak without a set of deuces?
triple pay deuces
I get 1,226 for the odds.
···
On Wed, Apr 8, 2009 at 6:38 PM, jack_page_99 <maverick89@cox.net> wrote:
win poker shows a 4500 hand cycle for the four deuce payout,
Im currently at 32000 hands without a set of deuces, could one of our math
whizzes calculate the odds of this occuring?have I beat the record
for longest streak without a set of deuces?
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I get 1,226 for the odds.
Although there is a formula to give an exact number, one can
get pertty close with a very simple approximation.
1. You must know the cycle length. Ideally it is at least
something like a quad cycle or longer. I think the approximation
may get bad if you did this for things like 2 pair.
2. Multiply the quad cycle by 0.7 (or 2/3 if that is easier)
3. Divide your current number of hands by this number.
Let's call this x.
4. Raise 2 to the power x
5. As a quick shortcut, 2 to the 10th power is a bit over
1000.
In the problem stated...
4500 x .7 is 3150
32,000 divided by 3150 is a hair over 10
2 to the 10th is about 1000 (1024 to be precise)
This is by no means perfect, but it is very close and
the kind of thing you can do in your head.
The whole thing revolves around the fact there is a number
of hands where after playing that long, you will have
a 50-50 chance of missing/hitting the hand. It is NOT
the same as the cycle. It is lower. For hands that
are fairly rare, this is more or less an exact ratio
that is near 0.7. Once you know the fifty fifty point,
you double the odds for every time you play that number
of hands again. So we see that after 1.4 cycles we
will have failed to connect about 1 in 4 times. Afterr
2.1 cycles, we will have failed to connect about 1 in
8 times. And so on.
Jim
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jason Pawloski <jpawloski@...> wrote:
On Wed, Apr 8, 2009 at 6:38 PM, jack_page_99 <maverick89@...> wrote:
>
>
> win poker shows a 4500 hand cycle for the four deuce payout,
> Im currently at 32000 hands without a set of deuces, could one of our math
> whizzes calculate the odds of this occuring?have I beat the record
> for longest streak without a set of deuces?
>
>
>[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]