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Trip report- Peppermill/Silver -March'04

OK! finally got to check out the heralded Pepp VP Early March, 4 nights.
First: Peppermill - nice room (comped corner suite), nice host (Chris - see
vpfree casino database link) and relaxing, "good enough" music. Lot of Frank
Sinatra and country, but it fit the mood of the place. I ate at the Steak House -
good food, first class service. Decor was neon everywhere, and TVs
everywhere too.
     Poker room looked comfy, 4 or more tables open at peak hours. But the
incessant PA break-ins to the music became annoying: "Mitch, your 2-4
hold'em seat is avaialble, last call, Mitch!" "Clem, 20-40 hold'em seat is open,
Clem."
   But - the VP- well, let me say that this joint is 10/6 Dbl Dbl Bonus Mecca.
You have to check every dang Gamemaker paytable at every denom on the
machine, but there are plenty of these machines. Slant-tops, big screen, big
cards, fast. over 100% return. These TITO Gamemakers had 10/6 DDB:
(4) @ .25 between Main cashier & Fireside lounge
(2) @ $1 near Romanzo restaurant
      (multi denoms - MAY have had .50 & .25 also?)
(2) (& probably more) @ $1/$2/$5 in High Limit area
Also, the Multistrikes still had 10/6 DDB on them - 4 slant tops still near
cabaret stage and (2 or 4) uprights near "back of the buffet line" elevators.
.05/.10/.25 denoms.
I found a "full pay" Nevada deuces @ .25. I found NO full pay Kings or better
Joker at $.25 nor at $1 (?) And no full-pay deuces. NSUD were somewhat
common, at .25 & $1 I think.
I found the 10-coin $1's 9/6 JoB with the Progressive Royal, which a lady hit
while I was nearby for $10,500. It re-set at $9,400. Behind it is a fun bank of
$1 Bonus with progs on the Quad A's, SF and Royal. The SF never got above
$300 before being hit and the Quad A's never got to $500 before being hit
while I was there. These are old machines, kind of slow, with annoying coin
payoffs. Handpays were automatic at 400, but maybe even anything over 200,
I never figured it out.
  I guess my only revealing find was the $2/$5 10/6 DDB in the high limit area.
Sorry if the local "pro's" were hiding these, but I never saw anyone playing
them the whole time I was there except me. Maybe 100.07% isn't "worthy",
Peppermill not offering any cash back.

My highlight jackpots were a Royal on the .25 DDB late my first night for +
$1000. Plus Quad 2's w/kicker on $1 DDB for +$800. Also Quad A's w/kicker
on .25 DDB for +$500. and a quad K's on $2 DDB for +$500.

Silver: just a Sat/Sun there for me. grabbed the cash back offer we talked
about in a different thread. my last 24 hours at Pepp and my whole stay at
Silver were BIG downers for me. Nothing hit and bankroll took a big dive. A
couple $400 Jackpots on the $1 DDB where highlights, but no relief to my
bankroll. MIA: the $5 JoB in the high limit area. replaced with $5 9/6 DDB.
Also, the .25 FPDW new machines ARE now Progressive Royals. each bank
(6 & 8 machines on main floor + 6 upstairs near gift shop) are independent
Prog pools.

Service at the Silver was all-around slow Sat. I copped an attitude about the
9/6 DDB's at Silver, having been "spoiled" with the 10/6 version at Peppermill.
Perhaps they think their Progressive Royals make up for the 9/6, but I began
to dislike the old machines, even tho' they've been so good to me in the past.

Quick comparison of the two casinos:

Pepp:
plusses: Brighter, 10/6DDB at all levels, hotel room a little nicer, poker room
available, much better employee attitude, bigger place, didn't feel quite as
crowded. More TITO's. some FP games on the Multistrikes.

negatives: seemed less secure: lotsa dreggy people "hanging around"; no
visible security presence on the floor. no FPDW.

Silver:
plusses: those new .25 FPDW Progs. some good promotions, .25 FPJW, a
little classier joint with good security.

negatives: a lttle stuffier, not much FP above .25 (but 4 -10/7 DB progs still
there) . Older beat up VP machines, slow to change to TITO.

BOTH places:
good hosts, great food, clean, lots of VP, a comping competition for business
-Play it!

~MP

--- In vpFREE_Reno@yahoogroups.com, "Mark" <mark_my_words_again@y...>
wrote:

I found a "full pay" Nevada deuces @ .25.

Nevada Bonus?
800-100-200-25-11-8-5-6-3-1-1=99.83%?

  I guess my only revealing find was the $2/$5 10/6 DDB in the high

limit area.

Sorry if the local "pro's" were hiding these, but I never saw

anyone playing

them the whole time I was there except me. Maybe 100.07%

isn't "worthy",

Peppermill not offering any cash back.

Hmm, just curious, do you consider 10/6 DDB to be a better game than
10/7 DB? Why?

--- bobinreno wrote:

--- "Mark" wrote:
> I found a "full pay" Nevada deuces @ .25.

Nevada Bonus?
800-100-200-25-11-8-5-6-3-1-1=99.83%?

YES - I meant Nevada Bonus - near the Norh parking lot door / Food court
area. (I'm still catching up on sleep from my trip...)

> I guess my only revealing find was the $2/$5 10/6 DDB in the high
limit area.
> Sorry if the local "pro's" were hiding these, but I never saw
anyone playing
> them the whole time I was there except me. Maybe 100.07%
isn't "worthy",
> Peppermill not offering any cash back.

Hmm, just curious, do you consider 10/6 DDB to be a better game than
10/7 DB? Why?

I can play DDB much faster and more perfectly than DB.
I studied and practiced for a few months at home and played DB on two trips
a year ago. I never got used to holding three suited cards to the flush (not
3SF). It caused cross-over errors when I played other games. A 10/6 DDB
pays 100.07%, 10/7 DB pays 100.17%. close enough for me! Main answer:
easier strategy on DDB. Just me.

--- In vpFREE_Reno@yahoogroups.com, "Mark" <mark_my_words_again@y...>
wrote:

A 10/6 DDB pays 100.07%, 10/7 DB pays 100.17%. close enough for

me!

advantage ratio = .17/.07 = 2.4
variance ratio = 42/28 = 1.5

to play 10/6 DDB requires a bankroll 2.4 x 1.5 = 3.6 times larger
than the bankroll for 10/7 DB. the 10% risk of ruin bankroll for 10/7
DB is 18,534 bets ($23,168 for five coin quarter machine).

bankroll calculator:
http://www.gamblingtools.net/vp/vpanalyzer.html

Bob-
while I appreciate the calcs and the link for calc-ing "bankroll",
and I'm sure it means something to you and some portion of vpFree-
ers, it is pretty much jibbah-jabber to me. I understand the theory
and the math and all, it's just impractical for me to wait for a
bankroll to be that large before I play. Hell, profits from play are
increasing my bankroll!! (except for this last trip - laugh is on
me.) Cycle that thru the calculator!

I'm pretty sure that my errors in playing DB would cost me more out-
of-pocket than the variance benefit over DDB. and I really don't
wanna know what "advantage ratio" is, thanks for the attempt though.

I would hazard to say that there are VERY few people who have
gathered a $23K bankroll and stick to quarter play. Consequently,
according to the calculator's numbers, a majority of players are
playing with MORE than 10% risk of ruin. I say your numbers are
impractical to use In Real Life.

But, as always, your mileage might vary, and more power to you if you
have the patience to wait and if following these calculations gives
you more confidence in your play. That is always goodness.

ME? I'll plod along. Even withOUT the $83,400 bankroll (for 10% R-o-
R) that you imply I need to play DDB. And I'll keep trying to quit
each session when I'm ahead. And I'll note your suggestion on 10/7
being more "stable" of a game - maybe the charm of the easy strategy
of DDB will wear off as I tap out of trip bankroll after trip
bankroll and I will become a real example for your theoretical
numbers. Let's hope NOT!

~MARK
--- In vpFREE_Reno@yahoogroups.com, "bobinreno2000"
<bobinreno2000@y...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE_Reno@yahoogroups.com, "Mark"

<mark_my_words_again@y...>

wrote:
> A 10/6 DDB pays 100.07%, 10/7 DB pays 100.17%. close enough for
me!

advantage ratio = .17/.07 = 2.4
variance ratio = 42/28 = 1.5

to play 10/6 DDB requires a bankroll 2.4 x 1.5 = 3.6 times larger
than the bankroll for 10/7 DB. the 10% risk of ruin bankroll for

10/7

···

DB is 18,534 bets ($23,168 for five coin quarter machine).

bankroll calculator:
http://www.gamblingtools.net/vp/vpanalyzer.html

--- In vpFREE_Reno@yahoogroups.com, "Mark" <mark_my_words_again@y...>
wrote:

ME? I'll plod along. Even withOUT the $83,400 bankroll (for 10% R-o-
R) that you imply I need to play DDB. And I'll keep trying to quit
each session when I'm ahead. And I'll note your suggestion on 10/7
being more "stable" of a game - maybe the charm of the easy

strategy

of DDB will wear off as I tap out of trip bankroll after trip
bankroll and I will become a real example for your theoretical
numbers. Let's hope NOT!

Mark, you've got a strong "polyanna" streak ... generally not a bad
thing to have when dealing with daily life ... but it can be a real
handicap when gambling.

Bob is trying to show you how bad things might get if you continue to
pursue DDB ... and it's even worse at the dollar level. You really
should play around with his link, which is very easy to use.

Put in various RORs (heck, you're an optimist, use 50%) for DB and
the calculator will give you a "bankroll". Multiply that by your bet
($1.25 or $5), and then multiply that by 3.6 to get bankroll for
DDB. This is not necessarily how much you need to sit down and play,
but an indication of how extensive your losses might be over time ...
and THAT'S an important thing for any gambler to know!

Think these numbers don't apply to you in real life? It could be an
expensive lesson.

Best of luck,

2-W (a fan of your trip reports)

my comments mixed in:
(Sorry to rant - nothing personal) ~~M
--- "2-WILD" wrote:

Mark, you've got a strong "polyanna" streak ... generally not a bad
thing to have when dealing with daily life ... but it can be a real
handicap when gambling.

I read that article/link about pessimists & gambling also - sent it to my
pessimist friend who frets every $20 he gambles. I'd rather not train to be a
good loser personally.

Bob is trying to show you how bad things might get if you continue to
pursue DDB ... and it's even worse at the dollar level. You really
should play around with his link, which is very easy to use.

Thanks - I've used that calculator before. For the most common positive or
near positive paytable games around, the calculator spits out huge bankroll
numbers. Variance makes some sense to me - if the paytable of DDB is more
"top-heavy" than DB, i.e the lower-ranked but more common hands like str8's
& flushes , have lower payoffs so that higher-ranked but rarer hands like quad
pay MORE, then intuitively the variance should be higher. More risk.

Plus I think if strategy used is "imperfect", the calculator's numers are even
more imperfect as a result. How many apples in applesauce? Everyone
strives to make sense of the unknown, and VP seems on the surface to lend
itself to a cut and dried math analysis. But reality never follows a predictable
path, blame the RNG for this - there is no pattern of wins and losses hand by
hand.
I would recommend to use the math to make inferences and strategies, but
gamble away and know when to quit. Figures lie and liars figure. Not
pointing any fingers here, really. We all try our best. To have fun, make a
buck and hopefully both.

Put in various RORs (heck, you're an optimist, use 50%) for DB and
the calculator will give you a "bankroll". Multiply that by your bet
($1.25 or $5), and then multiply that by 3.6 to get bankroll for
DDB. This is not necessarily how much you need to sit down and play,
but an indication of how extensive your losses might be over time ...
and THAT'S an important thing for any gambler to know!

Ridiculous. It assumes perfect play, and RoR's assume you drag along the
Bottom of the Variance bar for thousands of hands. I don't know anyone with
that stamina.

I don't like the simplicity of bobinreno's calculation in the e-mail:
"advantage" = .17/.07 = 2.4 ??? from 100.17 and 100.07 !?!
huh!?? so multiply the bankroll by 2.4 then multiply again by the ratio of the
two variances (42/28) 1.5. eh, sure. could be based in the math of the
formula, but I smell some hocus-pocus.

Think these numbers don't apply to you in real life? It could be an
expensive lesson.

I'm sure they don't apply to me in real life. Probability is math theory for
scientists trying to explainsome Macro-economic situation of randomness in
this case as time goes to infinity. Trying to give the conservative pessimist
ONE handy number to compare games with. I'd rather have MANY practical
stategies for many eventualities, cover more bases than one average
calculation or one worst case situation. I'd rather know what to do if I win a
jackpot. ME. in the middle of a ten-hour session of grinding out crappy
holds, wasting "hope credits" to catch a straight or a flush or even trips to save
me from stuffing another hardearned $100 into this machine that has been
vacuuming my wallet for a long time.

It seems to me I hear, "Just keep playing. If it was a good play before the
Jackpot, it will be a good play after the jackpot." Same old dance.

But the common sense advice I've heard also is, "Hold onto that money. Take
it home. Enjoy it. Do something fun with it. You've achieved your goal!" This is
a refreshing song, eh?

Best of luck,

2-W (a fan of your trip reports)

Thanks, I appreciate it. I'm much more fun and funny when I win. Aren't we
all?

  ~MARK

"Mark" <mark_my_words_again@y...> wrote:

--- "2-WILD" wrote:
> Think these numbers don't apply to you in real life? It could
> be an expensive lesson.
I'm sure they don't apply to me in real life

See, the thing about math is that it is always true, whether you
believe it or not. It's the truth, not self-deception, that sets you
free.

Omigod, bob, I KNEW it- you're a CULT leader.
just jokin' bob, but I wouldn't worship math if I were you.
And you don't actually modify your behavior after running the
numbers, do ya?
Truth? Free?? C'mon. vague vague vague. Mathemeticians are supposed
to be more succinct.

You could elaborate bob- but I do see figures like 18,000 hands in
your calculator. so I think you are talking about long term bankroll
fluctuation RANGE comparison of two VP games.

And the reason I state they don't apply to me is that the RNG
influences the current dealt hand, what I hold and what I draw and
whether I hit the deal button again MUCH MORE than does knowing which
data blip I am on a graph with a time axis a mile long. And what
happened last hand has no bearing on the next hand - hence the word
Random. If I think about the long term while playing, I might miss
that pair of 3's I should be holding.

It's one of those philosophical points that's difficult to argue, and
the math folks run and hide behind their formulas and the voodoo
zealots start squeezing their rosary beads or chanting card mantras.

Let's see, you predict I will profit +/-$23,000 in the next 30 hours
of VP (600 hph) if I play 10/7 DB. With 90% confidence.
And, IF I accept your weird factor calculation that I have to use
because DDB is not set-up on your calculator (a really Big IF),
then I will have between $83,400 loss and $83,400 gain with about 90%
confidence.

So instead of picking the DB as a safer bet (lower loss) I will
interpret your raw, factual data to suit my mood: (I feel so,so...
Free!) I'll pick the DDB to play, because I like the upper Win limit
prediction better. Same probability of losing $80K as winning $80K,
right?

Thanks for the opportunity to babble....

~~MARK

--- In vpFREE_Reno@yahoogroups.com, "bobinreno2000"
<bobinreno2000@y...> wrote:

"Mark" <mark_my_words_again@y...> wrote:
> --- "2-WILD" wrote:
> > Think these numbers don't apply to you in real life? It

could

> > be an expensive lesson.
> I'm sure they don't apply to me in real life

See, the thing about math is that it is always true, whether you
believe it or not. It's the truth, not self-deception, that sets

you

···

free.

"Mark" <mark_my_words_again@y...> wrote:

just jokin' bob, but I wouldn't worship math if I were you.

I don't worship math. Math is a tool, if you understand it, it can be
put to great use.

And you don't actually modify your behavior after running the
numbers, do ya?

Of course I do.

You could elaborate bob- but I do see figures like 18,000 hands in
your calculator. so I think you are talking about long term

bankroll

fluctuation RANGE comparison of two VP games.

It's not my calculator and I have no idea where you get 18,000 hands
from.

And the reason I state they don't apply to me is that the RNG
influences the current dealt hand, what I hold and what I draw and
whether I hit the deal button again MUCH MORE than does knowing

which

data blip I am on a graph with a time axis a mile long. And what
happened last hand has no bearing on the next hand - hence the word
Random. If I think about the long term while playing, I might miss
that pair of 3's I should be holding.

You don't understand math or the science of probability. Your loss.
DDB simply requires a greater bankroll, meaning your chances are
greater of a substantial loosing streak, even when the odds are in
your favor (positive advantage). If you have the bankroll and cajones
to substain that loss, more power to you.

Key questions to ask before any gamble:
1. Is it fair (random) and regulated (where do I file a complaint?)
2. Is it positive?
3. Do I have the bankroll required to sustain the loosing streaks
that come with any gamble, even a positive gamble?
4. What is the optimum strategy?

You must answer all these basic questions before you even stand a
chance of winning.

Gambling is one of those activities where everyone thinks they know
how to do it, but most don't. Which is why casinos and state
lotteries make money, lots of it.

something else to consider: number of hands that must be played to
get a positive result:

formula for 84% chance of a positive result: number of hands =
variance/(advantage^2)

full pay deuces wild with 0.25% cashback:
advantage=1.01%,variance=26,10%ror bankroll=2562 bets
hands for 84% chance of positive result = 26/(.0101^2)= 254,877
at 600 hands/hour = 425 hours, at 4 hours/day = 106 days

10/7 double bonus:
advantage=.17%,variance=28,10%ror bankroll=18534 bets
hands for 84% chance of positive result = 28/(.0017^2)= 9,688,581
at 600 hands/hour = 16,148 hours, at 4 hours/day = 4,037 days

10/6 double double bonus:
advantage=.07%,variance=42,10%ror bankroll=67517 bets
hands for 84% chance of positive result = 42/(.0007^2)= 85,714,286
at 600 hands/hour = 142,857 hours, at 4 hours/day = 35,714 days