If these trends are really predictable, it seems like there would be a
whole bunch of rich video poker players around.
I remember the string, but I don't recall anyone saying that trends are
predictable. However they are observable. The crux of the argument for
quitting while ahead was two-fold:
1. Since quitting has no effect on long term ER, it won't hurt to quit for
a while.
2. Quitting while still ahead guarantees a profit, at least for that
session.
Given the huge role of variance in most play, nothing is predictable short
of the theoretical long term.
lb