I wrote:
> In a short tournament with a high variance
> game such as DDB, these are the hands [Q/RF] that are going to
> distinguish the finishers. One set of quad Aces will wash away any
> advantage in getting a few extra FH or F/S.
paladingamingllc wrote:
So, playing tournament DDB, what's the right hold with AAA37?
Yes, this is a trick question, of sorts.
I deliberately kept my answer brief, reflecting two things:
- I haven't taken the time to analyze this particular tournament in
detail previously;
- I could easily get carried away with strategy speculation
and,
for something that's going to occupy 10 minutes of your life, keeping
things simple in preparation isn't a bad way to go.
···
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One thing I didn't address is that when you analyze adjustments to the
tournament paytable (incl Q/RF only, e.g.) to develop strategy it's
prudent to consider weighting hands differently than from their actual
payouts.
The top winner in a tournament is the player on whom the variance god
shines most strongly when it comes to high paying hits. That suggests
that you slant strategy in favor of higher paying hits when you aren't
giving up too much in EV.
In the hand you put forward, the respect hold EV's for AAA and AAA3
are 46.2 and 42.5 (based on our quad/RF only paytable). You give up
about 8% EV if you go for the AAA3 with what is likely a desirable
shot to really advance yourself in the field. That's a reasonable
sacrifice and I'd go for the AAA3.
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Ok, that said, we're faced with a problem. If we stick with standard
payouts on the quads and RF, we're stuck making manual adjustments to
a strategy chart we might print out of Frugal VP or VP Strategy
Master. Plus, we can't practice our alternate tournament strategy
using software since it's going to flag AAA3 in this case as an error.
The only resolution is to tweak the paytable a bit to give it the
variance skew that we desire.
Now, again, I'd prefer to keep things simple here. The decision above
was made based upon a modest EV sacrifice in going for the big payout.
So, making a seat of my pants call, lets boost the payout of kicker
quads and the RF in our adjusted paytable by 20% (or 10% or 15%; you
make the call). If you do that, AAA3 now comes out one top.
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A note about my suggested tournament strategy paytable. I'd have a
strong inclination to include high pair and trip pays.
These don't bias away from quads (although they do shift play away
from bonus quads somewhat). The return tied up in these two pays is
strong enough to warrant strategy consideration.
However, it's again a situation where I might reduce their values by
20%, so that variance is still given emphasis. In truth, the
inclusion of these pays is merely an inclination. There's a lot to be
said for keeping things simple.
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Obviously, there's no strict science to these calls. Someone who
really wants to shoot for the top prize and could care less about
coming in 10th, given the disparity of prizes, might bump up the Aces
w/ kicker by 40%. And someone who, as an alternate to fine tuning
strategy, would be panning for change in the streets (or simply is
"Sleepless in Philly" ;), might spend hours working on a strategy that
would truly maximize expected cash payout on the tournament.
So, Paladin, does the seal get it's fish today? ...
- H.