Once again, my column today was so popular that the e-mails are
flying in over it. Read it (if you haven't already) and I ask Dick to
whip out his slide rule and tell me if my occurance numbers are close
or far off. I spend very little time with and don't concentrate on
numbers when I write--readers want interesting input and to hear
about stimulating experiences. They want to like what they read.
Critics, when they can't sensibly argue anything else, will chip away
at the calculations. So this week I gave them the story of one of the
so-called 'advantage players' who lurks the streets of LV. This guy
requested the interview to tell it like it really is out there.....
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More Undeniable Truth: A Pro Speaks Out
by Rob Singer
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
Over the years because of my unique but successful approach to
playing video poker, I've been jeered at, criticized, and called a
liar by the most fervent believers of playing to the math (i.e.,
advantage players/optimal play strategists, etc.). As such, many new
players have continued to listen to the wrong side, and they continue
paying the price. But luckily, it only takes a few losing years in
this economy to force someone to take those blinders off.
One of my main criticisms about expert-play strategy is that it
relies upon hitting royals to be `pulled through' the long losing
streaks. In essence, it is imperative that lifetime expected value
(EV) always be close to or over the positive side of the equation.
That requires everything to even out on the mathematical scoreboard,
and all expected hands MUST be maintained over time for this to
occur. Not my idea of an exciting or even meaningful way to approach
the game, but hey, they've got to start somewhere.
Those who argue against this say that a player can spend a long time
on the `other side of the Bell Curve' yet eventually they WILL catch
up. The battle cry is that if they remain faithful to only over 100%
EV opportunities, there will be a light at the end of that long
tunnel instead of a cold, solid wall. And all this, of course,
requires that nearly every hand ever played be executed
perfectly. "Mistakes only bring you down", they say.
But naturally, no one ever plays errorless video poker, and those who
like to announce they do are only closing their knowing eyes to the
fact that far more errors are made than anyone ever realizes they
make at the machines. Always. Other than for feel-good/confidence-
building reasons, I contend that none of it makes any difference.
You're either lucky or you're not, and what you do when that good
fortune comes along will shape your video poker-playing world.
Much of my information comes either from my own experiences, talking
to people I know within the casino industry, or by meeting with and
chatting often with others from all types of video poker backgrounds.
And generally, whenever I print about my successful casino
experiences, the naysayers ask for some type of proof that supports
my wins. I've always acknowledged and provided documentation, but the
doubters nonetheless remain. It's like they just can't take it. Could
you if you were losing?
One way to help alleviate their pain is through reading this column
today. It's time for more proof of what I say only this
extrapolation of the truth about the game comes not from me, but from
another professional gambler living in Las Vegas who, like me,
derives his living from his betting. Even more impressive is the fact
that he has never worked a day in his life, and expects to continue
to operate in that fashion throughout his days. Let's see if you can
name a guru ANYWHERE who can even put one shoe on his foot from
that mold...
His name is Rick Radner someone who for nearly 10 years has been
found playing whenever and wherever a video poker play occurs that
theoretically calculates out to at least >101%. He is, in fact, a
real live `advantage player' - a term that almost exclusively falls
victim to my scorn. In turn, in my many discussions with him, I've
learned that while he maintains his belief in the advantage player,
he puts the same or more credence in my Play Strategies over expert-
play. You see, he's willing to talk to me and understand the common
sense approach of what I do and why BEFORE crucifying it like others
do. An open mind is truly hard to find in gambling circles.
Before you go off and declare him as Singer-confused, listen up. I
have a solid math background, yet when I first met Rick he performed
a very complicated mathematical feat that I've never been able to do,
and have never seen anyone else able to even come close to figuring
it out successfully. I'd say that qualifies him to be a serious video
poker player which he obviously is. Hey, it seems every former
programmer and geek out there makes believe they know all about
playing the game. This guy really does.
But as I ALWAYS warn those who insist on pursuing the optimal-play
path, one must beware. While Rick has had great yearly success in
playing live poker and betting on sports, his video poker play has
not been nearly as kind. In 10 years of play and averaging 150,000
dealt hands per year while playing 3-4 days a week for 2-3 or more
hours a day, the only reason he's slightly ahead, if that, is because
of the value of the comps, the cash back, the free-play, and any
significant gifts that happen to come his way. Rick vs. strictly the
vp machines with all that intellect and all that ability along with
all those hands that certainly should have him deep into long-term
territory - he is not close to being a winner.
The gurus are wondering how that can be. Well, at first glance you'd
think it's not easy. But with a few more facts then you'll see just
how simple it is to get into such a position. Over the years, about
75% of his play has been on the $1 & $2 multi-plays: Triple-Play/Five-
Play/Ten-Play, and almost exclusively on what I call the Advanced
Bonus Poker games (such as Double Double Bonus, Super Double Bonus,
Triple Double bonus, & Super Aces, etc.) as well as the Deuces Wild
games. The other 25% is on single play games, and he plays as high as
$10 in certain theoretically advantageous cases.
Is EV the all-important factor advantage players make it out to be?
Let's take a look in Rick's case and we'll find out. On the single-
play games, he's ahead of the expected royals cycle as well as most
of the other categories of larger winners in the games he plays. But
not so on the multi-plays which as we've seen happen to be where
the majority of his play is.
Here's some examples of the huge anomaly he's facing. Royals: In 1.5
million dealt hands, he `should' receive 2-3 dealt royals which of
course equate to HUGE jackpots. He has none. Four Aces: Never had
them dealt, and the math says he should have had that happen around
16 times. The same story with Four Deuces. Aces or 2's, 3's, or 4's
with the kicker: Never dealt. What about the very powerful 2's, 3's,
4's, J's, Q's, or K's in Super Double Bonus Poker? Not once has he
been dealt any of these winners. And the Straight Flush, which should
have occurred approximately 9 times by now on the deal? Never.
All in all, he figures as an advantage player, he's behind by close
to $500,000 because of being passed over by the math on these multi-
play machines. And to add insult to injury, what happened to him last
week would make a grown man cry. After losing nearly $5000 on a five-
play $2 machine, he went to a single-play $5 game and oddly chose
Bonus Poker. The very first deal? Four Aces for $2000! If he had that
on the prior game with the $2 five-play Super Aces he was playing, it
would have been a $20,000 winner.
But it didn't stop there. At another casino he put $3500 into a
similar $2 multi-play game and had no hits. But with $4 left what do
most people do when they've just been killed? Yup, they play it off
as a short-coin hand. The deal on this five-play machine? Four 2's
for $500, and a slap in the face, because technically he cannot now
say he's never been dealt one of these winners on a multi-play! And
shortly after that on a $2 triple-play on a sweep of a bad deal, he
was DEALT a royal on line 2 for $8000 while seemingly being mocked
for never having been dealt a large bottom line winner on such a
machine in 10 years of play.
What's all this say? Certainly, royals, big winners and big deals are
not necessary at all for one to be a slight winner, a slight loser or
very close to even in the theoretical long-term. You get lucky when
you get lucky and you take your lumps when it's time to. But most
importantly, advantage video poker play will most likely never get
you to where those math models predict you will be. You're not
robots, and not everyone's that lucky.