vpFREE2 Forums

There's a reason...

#1

From: "vpanimal" <vpanimal@hotmail.com>

What's gonna

···

happen if there are 10,000 experts 5 years from now, fighting for even
fewer opportunities?

I certainly cannot stop the propogation of experts and easy
information. All I can do is try not to add to it. Just something
for people to think about.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Good to see you posting again Tim!

I agree that opportunities are going to dry up, especially since Vegas is currently awash in visitors and $$$. You don't see a lot of places advertising their over 100% paybacks any more. This may change when the next 9-11, or similar disaster strikes though.

I think some of the people on these boards should be lumped together with the card counters. Lots think they can beat the house, but few actually have the bankroll, discipline, whatever, to be successful.

Another thing to consider, many of the recreational experts still play slots, table games, bingo, etc. in addition to decent VP. They just can't help themselves! Myself, I plan on getting in to the Golden Arm club at the Cal this weekend. Hold the dice for over an hour? Let me at 'em!

Hopefully all decent VP won't disappear before I get to town tomorrow....

SK

#2

I agree that opportunities are going to dry up, especially since

Vegas is

currently awash in visitors and $$$. You don't see a lot of places
advertising their over 100% paybacks any more. This may change when

the

next 9-11, or similar disaster strikes though.

There's 2 ways to look at that. One is like you say, that as business
drops off they'll offer better paytables and promos to attract more
customers. That's the way a normal business would need to do it.

The other line of thinking (and I see this in smaller casino towns) is
they go the other direction. They dig in and try and wait out the
cycle by cutting costs. And those costs include low hold percentages,
expensive cash promotions, etc. For instance, conditions were pretty
good pre-9/11, but things really tightened up after 9/11 when business
dropped. Perhaps that had nothing to do with it, and it was just the
trend, but my thinking is that casinos are more willing to put up with
advantage players when their business is going well, and vise versa.
We get scrutinized a lot more closely when business is down.

I think some of the people on these boards should be lumped together

with

the card counters. Lots think they can beat the house, but few

actually

have the bankroll, discipline, whatever, to be successful.

The card counter analogy has always been a good one, in response to
the question "how can casinos offer games where the odds can be
shifted in the player's favor?". But there's a big difference, and
it's the reason most all of us are VP players and not card counters.
Card counting is *hard*, VP is (comparatively) easy. That's largely
why positive BJ (via card counting skills) is still available after
40+ years, while positive VP is in real danger after only about 10
years.

The difficulty of card counting (not just the counting skill but other
obstacles like being recognized) is what keeps the number of experts
to a very low number. And as long as it's a low number, casinos can
tolerate it.

But the relative ease with which one can become a VP expert is largely
what explains the explosive growth in the number of experts. The
casinos could tolerate the low number of experts 5-10 years ago. Now
there's so many that they're taking notice and are forced to react.

Like most things in life, it's a matter of degree. Right now, some
casinos still tolerate us (although places Coasts do not anymore). But
as the number of experts grows, they'll all be forced to react. The
last thing we need is new recruits, and that's just what the spread of
easy information creates.

This is where I totally disagree with Bob Dancer's stance. He seems
to think teaching people that VP can be beaten (ala BJ) will help
casinos increase their business. He's managed to convince some of the
casinos of that too. Actually it will (and has), but not with the
type of profitable customers they need. I believe the reality is he's
doing way more damage than good. Penny wise but pound foolish.

But I guess the other cliche that applies is that he's laughing all
the way to the bank, while the rest of us watch our plays continue to
dry up as more and more experts slice the proverbial pie into smaller
and smaller pieces.

Another thing to consider, many of the recreational experts still

play

slots, table games, bingo, etc. in addition to decent VP. They just

can't

help themselves!

That's what the casinos are banking on, especially those that have
Dancer come in and teach their customers how to beat the house.
They're gambling that enough of them will play other games as well,
and that few of them will learn to play VP very well and have the
discipline to avoid the bad stuff. But as I said above, that's where
VP differs from BJ. It's simply too easy to learn to play this game
well. Casinos underestimated the tenacity of their customers, and
gave them a game that's too easy to beat. If that weren't the case,
we wouldn't be seeing machines with hold percentages under 2%, and
casinos wouldn't be yanking them.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "golden bearpa" <stevenb34@h...> wrote:

#3

Just take Las Vegas as an example. How many VP experts do you think
there are in relation to the entire population of visitors playing VP? Millions of visitors
and the experts are I would guess less than 1%? Take an informal sample next
time in the casino. Pick a complicated game like DB. Watch the number of
mistakes the player next to you makes. Try Jacks or Better, the all time easiest game.
The plays I have seen on $5 machine on the strip amazes me. The vast majority sit down at a VP machine, throw in money and go for it.

The demise of good VP is mostly due to Casino Mgt trying to maximize profits inthe
short run. Since alot of us play at $1 and up demons, they will notice the decrease
in action and come around. Maybe the strip will not, since they get action regardless
or so it seems when I visit. Full pay deuces is down due to the relative ease to play the
game well. Therefore its more likely these games return less to the casino due to the hacker factor.

I cant see the average visitor devoting the time to learning VP and I sure dont
see much evidence in the other players. Buying the software, practicing for hours, learning the penalty cards, reading emails on sites like this, etc. Perhaps some of this isnt numbers driven but paranoia of the part of Mgt. This is where Bob has potentially hurt my hobby. "Million dollar VP...." Althought I have to admit I read the book.

I have seen no significant relation to postings on these sites and the demise of VP.
This forum helps me find the full pay machines and is very useful. If I found something
good I most likely would disclose it here.

I agree that opportunities are going to dry up, especially since

Vegas is

currently awash in visitors and $$$. You don't see a lot of places
advertising their over 100% paybacks any more. This may change when

the

next 9-11, or similar disaster strikes though.

There's 2 ways to look at that. One is like you say, that as business
drops off they'll offer better paytables and promos to attract more
customers. That's the way a normal business would need to do it.

The other line of thinking (and I see this in smaller casino towns) is
they go the other direction. They dig in and try and wait out the
cycle by cutting costs. And those costs include low hold percentages,
expensive cash promotions, etc. For instance, conditions were pretty
good pre-9/11, but things really tightened up after 9/11 when business
dropped. Perhaps that had nothing to do with it, and it was just the
trend, but my thinking is that casinos are more willing to put up with
advantage players when their business is going well, and vise versa.
We get scrutinized a lot more closely when business is down.

I think some of the people on these boards should be lumped together

with

the card counters. Lots think they can beat the house, but few

actually

have the bankroll, discipline, whatever, to be successful.

The card counter analogy has always been a good one, in response to
the question "how can casinos offer games where the odds can be
shifted in the player's favor?". But there's a big difference, and
it's the reason most all of us are VP players and not card counters.
Card counting is *hard*, VP is (comparatively) easy. That's largely
why positive BJ (via card counting skills) is still available after
40+ years, while positive VP is in real danger after only about 10
years.

The difficulty of card counting (not just the counting skill but other
obstacles like being recognized) is what keeps the number of experts
to a very low number. And as long as it's a low number, casinos can
tolerate it.

But the relative ease with which one can become a VP expert is largely
what explains the explosive growth in the number of experts. The
casinos could tolerate the low number of experts 5-10 years ago. Now
there's so many that they're taking notice and are forced to react.

Like most things in life, it's a matter of degree. Right now, some
casinos still tolerate us (although places Coasts do not anymore). But
as the number of experts grows, they'll all be forced to react. The
last thing we need is new recruits, and that's just what the spread of
easy information creates.

This is where I totally disagree with Bob Dancer's stance. He seems
to think teaching people that VP can be beaten (ala BJ) will help
casinos increase their business. He's managed to convince some of the
casinos of that too. Actually it will (and has), but not with the
type of profitable customers they need. I believe the reality is he's
doing way more damage than good. Penny wise but pound foolish.

But I guess the other cliche that applies is that he's laughing all
the way to the bank, while the rest of us watch our plays continue to
dry up as more and more experts slice the proverbial pie into smaller
and smaller pieces.

Another thing to consider, many of the recreational experts still

play

slots, table games, bingo, etc. in addition to decent VP. They just

can't

help themselves!

That's what the casinos are banking on, especially those that have
Dancer come in and teach their customers how to beat the house.
They're gambling that enough of them will play other games as well,
and that few of them will learn to play VP very well and have the
discipline to avoid the bad stuff. But as I said above, that's where
VP differs from BJ. It's simply too easy to learn to play this game
well. Casinos underestimated the tenacity of their customers, and
gave them a game that's too easy to beat. If that weren't the case,
we wouldn't be seeing machines with hold percentages under 2%, and
casinos wouldn't be yanking them.

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

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···

vpanimal <vpanimal@hotmail.com> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "golden bearpa" <stevenb34@h...> wrote:

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#4

Unfortunately, I believe you are in denial about the power of the
internet. Knowledge is power and the internet provides ANYONE
powerful information on FPVP. We focus on this disruptive technology
increasing the number of skilled players. However, I believe the
demise of FPVP is actually from this knowledge creating paranoia in
casino management. Put yourself in their role, and then read the
messages on this board. How does FPVP help them meet their revenue
goals over the next six months? No one in casino management is
looking beyond that timeframe.
Haaljo in Boston

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Nelson Jackson <nelson8300@y...>
wrote:
  

I have seen no significant relation to postings on these sites and

the demise of VP.

This forum helps me find the full pay machines and is very

useful. If I found something

···

good I most likely would disclose it here.

of this message have been removed]

#5

Agree about the internet, but the person must still use the info.
I still feel most players dont bother with it and they few that do
are a fraction of 1% of the total millions of visitors.

As soon as Vegas experiences a downturn in business due to recession, terrorist attack, etc. the game quality will improve.

Unfortunately, I believe you are in denial about the power of the
internet. Knowledge is power and the internet provides ANYONE
powerful information on FPVP. We focus on this disruptive technology
increasing the number of skilled players. However, I believe the
demise of FPVP is actually from this knowledge creating paranoia in
casino management. Put yourself in their role, and then read the
messages on this board. How does FPVP help them meet their revenue
goals over the next six months? No one in casino management is
looking beyond that timeframe.
Haaljo in Boston

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Nelson Jackson <nelson8300@y...>
wrote:
  

I have seen no significant relation to postings on these sites and

the demise of VP.

This forum helps me find the full pay machines and is very

useful. If I found something

good I most likely would disclose it here.

of this message have been removed]

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups SponsorADVERTISEMENT

···

haaljo <haaljo@yahoo.com> wrote:

---------------------------------
Yahoo! Groups Links

   To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/
  
   To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
vpFREE-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
  
   Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

---------------------------------
Do you Yahoo!?
Check out the new Yahoo! Front Page. www.yahoo.com

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

Just take Las Vegas as an example. How many VP experts do you think
there are in relation to the entire population of visitors playing

VP? Millions of visitors

and the experts are I would guess less than 1%? Take an informal

sample next

time in the casino. Pick a complicated game like DB. Watch the

number of

mistakes the player next to you makes. Try Jacks or Better, the all

time easiest game.

The plays I have seen on $5 machine on the strip amazes me. The

vast majority sit down at a VP machine, throw in money and go for it.

You're right. The vast majority of players don't know how to play
well or at all. And yes, we all see those people cycling through,
sitting a few machines from us and losing quickly.

But therein lies a key part of the equation. It doesn't matter how
MANY non-experts vs. experts there are, but it does matter how much
PLAY there is by non-experts vs. experts. When one of us is sitting
there playing, we often see a 5-10 people or more come and go losing
their $20 apiece. Yet the lone expert has been there that whole time,
playing fast, puting through more coin-in by himself than the total of
those 5-10 non-experts. In total coin-in terms, 1 expert easily plays
as much as 5-10 non-experts.

If that were as far as it went, that wouldn't be much of a problem.
If only 5-10% of the total coin-in on our positive machines was from
experts, the hold percentages would not move down very far and they'd
still be there. But remember that all those non-expert's play is
spread over all the VP machines on the floor, most of which have bad
paytables. Contrast that with the expert players which play
exclusively on the good machines.

Let's apply this to a theoretical casino that averages $1m coin-in per
day from their VP machines. Let's also say 10% of their VP machines
have good paytables, and 90% have bad. And let's say 1% of their
total VP players are experts that each plays 10 times the coin-in
compared to the avg non-expert.

That would mean 10% of the total VP coin-in is from experts ($100k).
All of that is on the good machines. Non-experts spread their play
evenly among all the machines, meaning 10% of their coin-in is on the
good machines (10% of 900k = $90k). So in an avg day, the good
machines get $100k + $90k = $190k of play. The experts' $100k makes
up 52% of the play on those machines. That's enough to slice the hold
percentages on those machines in half.

These are just estimates and might be off quite a bit either way, but
it illustrates how a mere 1% of the VP playing customer base could
still have a big impact on the machines we care about. While the
impact of 1% seems as though it shouldn't alter the casino's plans, we
have to remember that each bank of machines is evaluated on it's own
merit. If a bank is underperforming (either low volume or low hold
percentage) compared to what a different machine or paytable might
bring in, they will change it. This is a case where we can't look at
the big picture, we have to look at the small picture (from the
standpoint of the good machines only).

The demise of good VP is mostly due to Casino Mgt trying to maximize

profits inthe

short run. Since alot of us play at $1 and up demons, they will

notice the decrease

in action and come around.

Perhaps, but I doubt it. Losing customers that they don't make money
from to begin with should not negatively impact their bottom line,
thus should not force them to improve the paytables. If we were
profitable customers for them, then yes, the loss of our business
would likely cause them to change back.

I cant see the average visitor devoting the time to learning VP and

I sure dont

see much evidence in the other players. Buying the software,

practicing for hours, learning the penalty cards, reading emails on
sites like this, etc.

I agree with you there. The average visitor will not. But the people
who join lists like this, but the books, software, etc. are not
average visitors. It only takes a small percentage of them to make a
big impact on the specific machine we like.

Perhaps some of this isnt numbers driven but paranoia of the part of

Mgt. This is where Bob has potentially hurt my hobby. "Million
dollar VP...." Althought I have to admit I read the book.

I agree there may be some paranoia involved by casino managment, but
at least to some degree it's justified. I think paranoia may be the
biggest reason a casino wouldn't put in good VP to begin with. But my
feeling is that the removal of already existing good VP is almost
always a result of machine holds getting too low. That's simply smart
business to replace underperforming machines with more profitable
ones.

I have seen no significant relation to postings on these sites and

the demise of VP.

This forum helps me find the full pay machines and is very useful.

If I found something

good I most likely would disclose it here.

There is no doubt that this forum (as well as other forums, books,
newsletters, etc.) is very useful to many people and helps them find
the good machines. I absolutely agree with that.

My point, of course, it that that in itself is a big part of the
problem. I'm not calling for the demise of all VP-related forums,
books, etc. (as if that were possible). I'm just suggesting people
think twice before broadcasting information about their favorite
positive plays. The more experts that know about them, the less
likely they are to last.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Nelson Jackson <nelson8300@y...> wrote:

#7

I agree that casinos aren't going to care about losing the "pros" or
people that only play positive games. But what about those of us who
only make a few trips to LV each year, but spend a lot while we're
there, and look for decent paytables? I think there are a lot of us
that don't need to have positive plays, but are looking for something
with a return in the 99-99.5% range to give ourselves a fighting
chance.

In the short run (which is what my trips are) I am perfectly happy
playing games like 9/6 Jacks, 8/5 BP, 9/6 DDB and NSUD, with near-
perfect strategy of course. (And blackjack or craps with good odds
for that matter.) That gives me a decent chance of coming out ahead
for my sessions/trips. But I won't touch the games that most of the
Strip casinos are putting out there. And from what I've seen, not
many people do. You see the occasional couple sit down and lose
their $20 and then get up, but most of the lousy paytable machines
sit mostly idle from my experience. I think there is a chance that
some of these casinos may figure out that having games with a slight
house edge will produce more profit by attracting more business than
the games with a 6-7% (or more) advantage, especially as people do
become more knowledgable. And even players that don't study strategy
are going to stop playing games where their money disappears quickly.

In contrast, you go to casinos where the paytables are decent, and
there is usually a good crowd. And the casinos are still making good
money from those people (except for the rare positive games).

Personally, I couldn't care less if people keep the exceptional plays
(high progressives, etc.) to themselves. But I really appreciate
that people share the information about which casinos have decent
paytables, and especially where the rare decent machines are within
the Strip casinos, since when I go to LV I am usually staying on the
Strip. So... thanks everyone for sharing!

it illustrates how a mere 1% of the VP playing customer base could
still have a big impact on the machines we care about. While the
impact of 1% seems as though it shouldn't alter the casino's plans,

we

have to remember that each bank of machines is evaluated on it's own
merit. If a bank is underperforming (either low volume or low hold
percentage) compared to what a different machine or paytable might
bring in, they will change it. This is a case where we can't look

at

the big picture, we have to look at the small picture (from the
standpoint of the good machines only).

> The demise of good VP is mostly due to Casino Mgt trying to

maximize

profits inthe
> short run. Since alot of us play at $1 and up demons, they will
notice the decrease
> in action and come around.

Perhaps, but I doubt it. Losing customers that they don't make

money

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpanimal" <vpanimal@h...> wrote:

from to begin with should not negatively impact their bottom line,
thus should not force them to improve the paytables. If we were
profitable customers for them, then yes, the loss of our business
would likely cause them to change back.

#8

[snip] ... But what about those of us who

only make a few trips to LV each year, but
spend a lot while we're there, and look for
decent paytables? I think there are a lot
of us that don't need to have positive plays,
but are looking for something with a return in
the 99-99.5% range to give ourselves a fighting
chance ... [snip]

Amen. I suspect that the vast majority of readers on this board
fall into this category ( I know I do ). All I want is a shot at
not getting wiped out in a couple of hours of play in my few trips a
year to LV. I'm even willing to compromise a little, since I won't
spend time in places like the El Cortez. There's probably been a
poll already to discern what the make-up of readers is(?)
Bottomline, I'm not looking to make a living, or even actually make
money -- althought that always makes a trip more fun -- just extend
my recreation time in a decent game.

#9

why would you pay to play video poker (negative expectation games)
when you can play online for free?
i can understand table games, because there is the social atmosphere
and the chance you could always hook up, but machine play?
if you insist probably your least loses would be on all the new penny
machines even though many have poorer paytables
but why put up with the second hand smoke, glare, machines covered
with ashes and spilled drinks and who knows what other human discards
(you are aware there are very nasty viruses going around: noro,
norwalk, flu, hepatitus ...?), street hustlers trying to steal your
various possessions ...
why?
you do realize that even a slighly negative 99.5% dollar game is
costing you about $15/hour and that's assuming perfect play which most
people think they can do but cannot? can you really play perfect play
after a few drinks and heavy exposure to second hand smoke while
trying to keep your eye on the suspicious looking guy and remember
never to touch your eyes, nose or mouth even though they itch from the
smoke and glare?
why pay for that kind of abuse?

positive gambling is always still gambling, you always face a risk of
losing it all (having a running net losing streak that causes you to
stop for ever or at least a year or two)
negative gambling is a fool's folly, the more you play, the more you
lose (i'm talking running net loss, the one that counts, not your day
to day or hour to hour, you do realize that a $100 "win" isn't a win
if it costs you $100 or more despite casino marketing to the
contrary?)

wrote:

[snip] ... But what about those of us who
> only make a few trips to LV each year, but
> spend a lot while we're there, and look for
> decent paytables? I think there are a lot
> of us that don't need to have positive plays,
> but are looking for something with a return in
> the 99-99.5% range to give ourselves a fighting
> chance ... [snip]

Amen. I suspect that the vast majority of readers on this board
fall into this category ( I know I do ). All I want is a shot at
not getting wiped out in a couple of hours of play in my few trips

a

year to LV. I'm even willing to compromise a little, since I won't
spend time in places like the El Cortez. There's probably been a
poll already to discern what the make-up of readers is(?)
Bottomline, I'm not looking to make a living, or even actually make
money -- althought that always makes a trip more fun -- just

extend

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "worldbefree22001" <krajewski.sa@p...>

my recreation time in a decent game.

#10

You should understand that for a "visitor" to play in Vegas, the requirements are different than for a local.
Visitors want, comps. Visitors are already in the hole with travel expenses and don't go to Vegas looking to make money.
Visitors go to Vegas to gamble and have an ultra cheap vacation by playing VP.
There is a feeling you get playing in Vegas, an ambiance that is not found on an online casino.
I can find full pay pick-em with reasonable cash back that is a 15 minute drive from my house, and I go there once a month to play,
I also fly out to Vegas 5 or 6 times a year to play. I like Vegas better, my airfare to Vegas is more than I can statistically earn playing the best
VP out there.

When calculating the E.V. at a Casino I add in cash back and comps, this quite often brings slightly negative machines into positive territory.
A 99.2 percent machine with .5 percent cashback, free rooms and meals, is worth more than a 100.2 percent machine with no cash back and no room comps.
All things that you receive from a casino have value, the total picture must be looked at.

Regards
A.P.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: nightoftheiguana2000
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Wednesday, November 10, 2004 3:35 PM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Slightly negative vs. REALLY bad paytables (was There's a reason...)

  why would you pay to play video poker (negative expectation games)
  when you can play online for free?
  i can understand table games, because there is the social atmosphere
  and the chance you could always hook up, but machine play?
  if you insist probably your least loses would be on all the new penny
  machines even though many have poorer paytables
  but why put up with the second hand smoke, glare, machines covered
  with ashes and spilled drinks and who knows what other human discards
  (you are aware there are very nasty viruses going around: noro,
  norwalk, flu, hepatitus ...?), street hustlers trying to steal your
  various possessions ...
  why?
  you do realize that even a slighly negative 99.5% dollar game is
  costing you about $15/hour and that's assuming perfect play which most
  people think they can do but cannot? can you really play perfect play
  after a few drinks and heavy exposure to second hand smoke while
  trying to keep your eye on the suspicious looking guy and remember
  never to touch your eyes, nose or mouth even though they itch from the
  smoke and glare?
  why pay for that kind of abuse?

  positive gambling is always still gambling, you always face a risk of
  losing it all (having a running net losing streak that causes you to
  stop for ever or at least a year or two)
  negative gambling is a fool's folly, the more you play, the more you
  lose (i'm talking running net loss, the one that counts, not your day
  to day or hour to hour, you do realize that a $100 "win" isn't a win
  if it costs you $100 or more despite casino marketing to the
  contrary?)

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#11

Thank you for your post!
My replies follow:

You see the occasional couple sit down and lose
their $20 and then get up, but most of the lousy paytable machines
sit mostly idle from my experience.

Casinos have become so much more focused on "hold", the average
player loss percentage, that they are ignoring the importance
that "drop", the amount of money put at risk (dropped in
machines/table boxes), still has on casino profits. If the hold
doubles, but the drop declines by 50%, the casino is not any more
profitable! 6:5 BJ has a great "hold", but casinos are unable to
offer it at $25 minimums!

I think there is a chance that
some of these casinos may figure out that having games with a

slight

house edge will produce more profit by attracting more business

than

the games with a 6-7% (or more) advantage, especially as people do
become more knowledgable.

Even the casinos should realize that a 5% game (6/5 JOB) will have an
average edge far greater than 5%, because players will wager short-
coin and play poor strategy. It is ridiculous that a perfect strategy
player has to wager $5 or more at a 5% VP game, when casinos will
often offer BJ at $5 a hand, or even 95%+ SLOT MACHINES!

I wish that casinos would realize that Blackjack became popular
because it is "beatable", even though most players don't know how to
play it. Likewise, Video Poker is popular because it is "beatable",
even though most players don't know how to play it! If I lost my
strategy chart, I would much rather play 9/6 JOB "by the seat of my
pants" than just sit around. But if a casino offers only 6/5 JOB,
then I would much rather not play at all.

#12

As I mentioned in a previous msg about the Bellagio offer, a game with
99.87% EV after cashback, free room and great food sounds like a
pretty good deal for me to have a nice getaway.

I am not quite as negative on the casino atmosphere as you portray,
yes there is smoke, which can be avoided to some degree, and there are
people who try to cheat/steal, but the casinos do a good job of
keeping this to a minimum (I think). Maybe those of us that are not
locals look at things a little different than the locals that can wait
for the very best opportunities, I would most likely do the same if I
were a local.

Happy Royals
Jim

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

···

why would you pay to play video poker (negative expectation games)
when you can play online for free?
i can understand table games, because there is the social atmosphere
and the chance you could always hook up, but machine play?
if you insist probably your least loses would be on all the new penny
machines even though many have poorer paytables
but why put up with the second hand smoke, glare, machines covered
with ashes and spilled drinks and who knows what other human discards
(you are aware there are very nasty viruses going around: noro,
norwalk, flu, hepatitus ...?), street hustlers trying to steal your
various possessions ...
why?
you do realize that even a slighly negative 99.5% dollar game is
costing you about $15/hour and that's assuming perfect play which most
people think they can do but cannot? can you really play perfect play
after a few drinks and heavy exposure to second hand smoke while
trying to keep your eye on the suspicious looking guy and remember
never to touch your eyes, nose or mouth even though they itch from the
smoke and glare?
why pay for that kind of abuse?

positive gambling is always still gambling, you always face a risk of
losing it all (having a running net losing streak that causes you to
stop for ever or at least a year or two)
negative gambling is a fool's folly, the more you play, the more you
lose (i'm talking running net loss, the one that counts, not your day
to day or hour to hour, you do realize that a $100 "win" isn't a win
if it costs you $100 or more despite casino marketing to the
contrary?)

#13

All things that you receive from a casino have value, the total
picture must be looked at.

i agree with that
any form of cash should be added to the base game to determine average
gain or loss
in addition, if you would normally spend say $20 for meals during the
day and instead earned comped meals, then you should credit that
savings minus tips to the expected gain or loss
likewise, if you would normally pay $100 for a room ...
perhaps also a movie or some form of entertainment ...
but you should also consider all the negatives, not least of which
would be a worst case loss
and you should also value your time ... is gambling a worthwhile use
of your limited time or is there something of greater value that you
could be doing instead?
perhaps exploring what vegas has to offer outside of gambling?
is it worth risking an outbreak of norovirus?:
http://tinyurl.com/4wmu2
allow me to repeat your words:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Albert Pearson" <a-p@s...> wrote:

All things that you receive from a casino have value, the total
picture must be looked at.

#14

Vegas has things outside of gambling ?
Probably, but that is not why I go there, well I do a little shopping at my favourite Malls. I meet friends that I have found for meals and conversation.
I also here that there is weather in Vegas , although I have never noticed it.
I'm the guy that can come back from 2 weeks in Vegas in the summer and be paler than
when I left home.
Gambling may not be a worthwhile activity, but I like to call it my hobby, and I pursue my hobby
like any other avid hobbyist. My target for all my trips is to gamble a lot, eat a bunch, not gain any weight,
and leave town up $1 after all expenses. Sometimes I succeed I almost always have fun.
I think we are almost on the same wavelength.

Regards
A.P.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: nightoftheiguana2000
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Thursday, November 11, 2004 3:41 AM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Slightly negative vs. REALLY bad paytables (was There's a reason...)

  --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Albert Pearson" <a-p@s...> wrote:
  > All things that you receive from a casino have value, the total
  > picture must be looked at.

  i agree with that
  any form of cash should be added to the base game to determine average
  gain or loss
  in addition, if you would normally spend say $20 for meals during the
  day and instead earned comped meals, then you should credit that
  savings minus tips to the expected gain or loss
  likewise, if you would normally pay $100 for a room ...
  perhaps also a movie or some form of entertainment ...
  but you should also consider all the negatives, not least of which
  would be a worst case loss
  and you should also value your time ... is gambling a worthwhile use
  of your limited time or is there something of greater value that you
  could be doing instead?
  perhaps exploring what vegas has to offer outside of gambling?
  is it worth risking an outbreak of norovirus?:
  http://tinyurl.com/4wmu2
  allow me to repeat your words:
  > All things that you receive from a casino have value, the total
  > picture must be looked at.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#15

I agree that casinos aren't going to care about losing the "pros"

or

people that only play positive games. But what about those of us

who

only make a few trips to LV each year, but spend a lot while we're
there, and look for decent paytables? I think there are a lot of

us

that don't need to have positive plays, but are looking for

something

with a return in the 99-99.5% range to give ourselves a fighting
chance.

I agree that the majority of people on this list, the other lists,
newsletters, etc. fall into this exact category. Most are not pros.
Most do not play near-perfect strategy. Most do not play VP 8 hours a
day. Most do not play dollar machines and above.

But most of the people that go so far as to join a list or subscribe
to a newsletter about VP learn to play VP with acuracy far greater
than the general public. Remember that the clueless general public
averages somewhere around 3% below EV using their "intuitive"
strategies. While most people on this list don't play perfectly (no
one can), I'd be surprised if there are more than a handful that play
1% below EV, and most probably within 0.5% of EV. That means even 9/6
JOB (99.5%) profits only around 1% (to the house) when played by these
people. Add somewhere around 1%-2% average in extras (cashback,
food/drink/room comps, gift shop comps, promotional giveaways, etc.)
and the casino is not making money from these people either, at least
from their play on these good machines.

That doesn't mean they may not make money from these customers (on
avg), because they may also play table games and slots and place
sports bets. But on the 99.5%+ VP machines, they're not making money
(after benefits) from people who know even just passable strategy.
Therefore the logical decision for the casino is simply to yank those
high percentage machines if they get too much "educated" play, and
they can tell that simply by looking at the machine holds.

My guess is any machine holds below 2% signal possible danger for us.
Next time you get a handpay, check out the accounting screen that
they usually write down stats from. If the overall machine hold is
over 2%, there's probably little danger of the machine going away (at
least for this reason anyway). But if it's much under 2%, I'd be a
little concerned.

Of course, the best solution would be to recruit clueless players to
play our machines and get them to play tons of coin-in with terrible
strategy. I just haven't figured out how to do that yet! :slight_smile:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "larsonsm" <larsonsm@y...> wrote:

#16

[snips galore]

but why put up with the second hand smoke, glare,
machines covered with ashes and spilled drinks and
who knows what other human discards (you are aware
there are very nasty viruses going around: noro,
norwalk, flu, hepatitus ...?), street hustlers
you do realize that even a slighly negative 99.5%
dollar game is costing you about $15/hour and that's
assuming perfect play which most people think they can
do but cannot?
Negative gambling is a fool's folly, the more you play,
the more you lose (i'm talking running net loss, the one
that counts, not your day to day or hour to hour, you

Iggy, you should be working for the LV convention and visitor's
authority. I think other respondents did a good job of explaining
why a trip to Vegas is better than a sterile on-line experience. I
guess I'd add that I see gambling as recreation not much different
than going to a movie, or seeing a play. I don't expect to make
money, simply extend my playing time and there is the occasional
pleasant surprise when I do win. Do you keep a running tab of all
the money you've spent for movies in the last decade? When I look
at what I spend on other vacations, LV is still cheap for me, even
if I lose money gambling.

All I'll ever play is what I budget to lose and I still get some low-
level comps -- mid-week, cheap/free rooms and food at second tier
properties. A lot of the stuff you hate about casinos are things I
like. The Norwalk virus risk seems pretty small, a couple of
thousand in 35+ million. I'd happily be the house with those
odds :slight_smile: I do practice enough to master whatever game I'm going to
play and let's be honest this isn't brain surgery. I think there's
some pretty sophisticated people on this board that will share that
there are significantly greater challenges out there than this.

Why Vegas? I like the buzz in that town, and the colorful
characters. From the Midwestern low-rolling tourist (hey, that's
me) to the desperate looking cat at the tables playing way over his
head. I dig the stupid architecture and excesses that exist no
where else on the planet or in history. I enjoy fine dining and I
really love live entertainment and again, LV is like no other place
in the world on that score.

Net; I'm on vacation. Gambling is one aspect that I enjoy, but it's
recreation not work. I guess that was the point of this thread, the
motivations for different people on this board vary greatly.

#17

wrote:

I
guess I'd add that I see gambling as recreation not much different
than going to a movie, or seeing a play. I don't expect to make
money, simply extend my playing time and there is the occasional
pleasant surprise when I do win. Do you keep a running tab of all
the money you've spent for movies in the last decade? When I look
at what I spend on other vacations, LV is still cheap for me, even
if I lose money gambling.

the only reason i gamble is to make money (i.e. to win)
and when i say win i mean net win, a so-called $100 win is not a true
win if it costs me $100 or more even if casino marketing claims i'm a
winner, and a so-called $1000 win today is not a true win if i lost
$1000 or more net on my last three trips, etc.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "worldbefree22001" <krajewski.sa@p...>

#18

i put in about a thousand hours per year, that's about a million hands
per year, around about a percent advantage, that gives me about 4N0
hands per year or 98% probability of being a yearly net winner

this isn't exactly what i do, but it gives you an example:
full pay deuces wild +0.25%cashback is about a percent advantage
N0=variance/(advantage)^2=hands played to get 84% chance of net
winning
4xN0=hands played to get 98% chance of net winning
for full pay deuces wild +0.25%cashback:
N0=26/(.01)^2=26/.0001=260,000 hands
4N0=4x 260,000=1,040,000 hands
bankroll(11%ror)=variance/advantage=2600 bets (takes money to make
money)

look through the database and see if you can find 1%, it's in there:
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Albert Pearson" <a-p@s...> wrote:

I think we are almost on the same wavelength.

#19

Of course, the best solution would be to recruit clueless players

to

play our machines and get them to play tons of coin-in with

terrible

strategy. I just haven't figured out how to do that yet! :slight_smile:

George Maloof is working on it. That's why the Palms moved many of
their 100% games closer to the 3 entrances to the casino.

Slowpoke

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpanimal" <vpanimal@h...> wrote:

#20

<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

the only reason i gamble is to make money (i.e. to win)

In Deke Castleman's new book he quotes a gambler:

"I come to Vegas every three months. I fly here in the
casino's jet. I have dinner with my friends. I get to see
Bruce Springsteen on the house. Once in a while I cash out
eighty thousand. When the fun stops? Are you sh**tin' me?
If it wasn't for gambling and Las Vegas, I'd blow my
f**kin' head off."

Just to a lesser degree I believe this reflects the feeling
of most recreational gamblers.

Dick