8a. "There are no stupid questions, only stupid people."
Date: Mon Jul 14, 2008 5:32 pm ((PDT))This is something I've been wondering for a while and have been unable to
find a plain-English explanation that does the trick.When we refer to the variance of a game, what specifically does that number
refer to?I mean, I know what it MEANS. I know how it's used. I know that
mathematically, it's the square of the standard deviation. And I realize,
in this context, that variance refers to the volatility of a game. I get how
it's used to extrapolate the bankroll requirements and so on and so forth...But when we talk about FPDW having a variance of 25.84, what does that
number itself mean? 25.84 what? Does it refer to coins bet? Fully loaded
units bet?Inquiring minds (or those in need of something more productive to do) want
to know.
If what you're asking is how to explain this to a non-mathematically sophisticated person who also has no previous exposure to the concept, try what I used to use in explaining my blackjack experience:
"I bet in a range from one unit to four units per hand, one or two hands, and if I'm at a table where I get 100 hands an hour in, I expect to win about one unit an hour -- but my experience in any given hour has been everywhere from winning 21 units to losing 19 units on any trip"
This can be used to explain EV (my EV is one unit per hour) and variance (plus or minus 20 units in a given hour during 20 hours of play on a trip). You can explain that a game with more variance would have an EV of one unit per hour plus or minus 30 or 40 units.
Most people can grasp that, if you word it in one or two different ways.
Another way is to say EV is the contribution of skill, and variance is the contribution of luck; again, most people can grasp that too.
I know those "plain english" explanations are not complete or 100% accurate, but when you go from technical to non-technical language in any field, you lose some "exactness".
Regarding the subject line - there are two sayings: "Better to ask a question and look like an idiot for a few minutes than not to ask, and be an idiot all your life" --- and "Better NOT to ask a question and have people think you're an idiot, than to ask the question and remove all doubt".
--BG
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