vpFREE2 Forums

The week of death, and some lessons learned

#1

There's been a lot of discussion about high volatility VP and
reports of horrible losses in a short period of time. Well:

In a mere 3 1/2 HOURS, $2000 goes south on the $1 10/7 DB at the
Palms. Two quads are hit, the first coming after a $1960 loss. The
two quads rebuild the credit balance back to about $500, which lasts
another ten minutes.

The next day, the score is -$2500 for our hero as he assaults
the "Optimum Play" machines, and is repulsed broken and bloody. In
six hours of 10/7 DB and 10/6 DDB on several different machines, NO
quads appear. The final $500 is stuck into a Loose Deuces game,
which game is considerate enough to let our hero last two more hours
before he cashes out the last $40 and staggers over to the Monopoly
machine where, perversely enough, he wins $200.

After a day off, our somewhat rattled hero returns to the trenches
to play NSUD and $1 DB at the Palms on a triple-point day. He gets
lotsa points as this time it takes nine whole hours to lose $2000.
There are no quad Aces in DB or quad deuces in NSUD to stop the
bleeding.

The following day he decides to check out the Multiline Multistrike
at BS. This proves to be a bad idea as he loses $1600 playing the
TEN CENT version of this game (yes, it's $8 a bet, but, STILL...)
While trying to lose his last $400 on DB, his cell phone mercifully
rings; he has to leave. He cashes out for a total loss of $1730 for
the day.

Having decided that it might be quarter time, he goes down to the
Palms the following day to pick up some bounceback cash and play
some nice, gentle, friendly .25 Joker. He loses $100 in half an hour
without geting any four of a kinds. For some reason he puts in
another hundred; the machine stabilizes; he hits a straight flush
and cashes out down a mere $50.

Being minus $8530 for less than a week is enough to make you want to
go home and bite the dog. It's just an expression of what can happen
playing high-volatility, break-even games. I'm going to drop down to
the quarter level and regroup, since while I could afford more
losses of this magnitude, I'm not sure my PSYCHE could afford it.

But you know what really is making me quit dollar games? The
realization that hitting a couple of royals for $8000 (which
happened last month) didn't feel nearly as good, as losing $8000+
this month felt BAD. And that's the sign of having reached the
threshold, I think. The quarter game can be just as fun, and just as
profitable; last month I had a +$4000 DAY playing quarters.

#2

I feel your pain, brother.
I had a losing Labor Day weekend, just not sure I learned a lesson.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rockofjello333"
<rockofjello333@y...> wrote:

There's been a lot of discussion about high volatility VP and
reports of horrible losses in a short period of time. Well:

In a mere 3 1/2 HOURS, $2000 goes south on the $1 10/7 DB at the
Palms. Two quads are hit, the first coming after a $1960 loss. The
two quads rebuild the credit balance back to about $500, which

lasts

another ten minutes.

The next day, the score is -$2500 for our hero as he assaults
the "Optimum Play" machines, and is repulsed broken and bloody. In
six hours of 10/7 DB and 10/6 DDB on several different machines,

NO

quads appear. The final $500 is stuck into a Loose Deuces game,
which game is considerate enough to let our hero last two more

hours

before he cashes out the last $40 and staggers over to the

Monopoly

machine where, perversely enough, he wins $200.

After a day off, our somewhat rattled hero returns to the trenches
to play NSUD and $1 DB at the Palms on a triple-point day. He gets
lotsa points as this time it takes nine whole hours to lose $2000.
There are no quad Aces in DB or quad deuces in NSUD to stop the
bleeding.

The following day he decides to check out the Multiline

Multistrike

at BS. This proves to be a bad idea as he loses $1600 playing the
TEN CENT version of this game (yes, it's $8 a bet, but, STILL...)
While trying to lose his last $400 on DB, his cell phone

mercifully

rings; he has to leave. He cashes out for a total loss of $1730

for

the day.

Having decided that it might be quarter time, he goes down to the
Palms the following day to pick up some bounceback cash and play
some nice, gentle, friendly .25 Joker. He loses $100 in half an

hour

without geting any four of a kinds. For some reason he puts in
another hundred; the machine stabilizes; he hits a straight flush
and cashes out down a mere $50.

Being minus $8530 for less than a week is enough to make you want

to

go home and bite the dog. It's just an expression of what can

happen

playing high-volatility, break-even games. I'm going to drop down

to

the quarter level and regroup, since while I could afford more
losses of this magnitude, I'm not sure my PSYCHE could afford it.

But you know what really is making me quit dollar games? The
realization that hitting a couple of royals for $8000 (which
happened last month) didn't feel nearly as good, as losing $8000+
this month felt BAD. And that's the sign of having reached the
threshold, I think. The quarter game can be just as fun, and just

as

···

profitable; last month I had a +$4000 DAY playing quarters.

#3

Thanks for posting that painful report. Every time I think of moving
up to $s, a report like yours brings me down to earth.

George in SF

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rockofjello333" <rockofjello333@y...>
wrote:

···

There's been a lot of discussion about high volatility VP and
reports of horrible losses in a short period of time. Well:

In a mere 3 1/2 HOURS, $2000 goes south on the $1 10/7 DB at the
Palms. Two quads are hit, the first coming after a $1960 loss. The
two quads rebuild the credit balance back to about $500, which lasts
another ten minutes.

The next day, the score is -$2500 for our hero as he assaults
the "Optimum Play" machines, and is repulsed broken and bloody. In
six hours of 10/7 DB and 10/6 DDB on several different machines, NO
quads appear. The final $500 is stuck into a Loose Deuces game,
which game is considerate enough to let our hero last two more hours
before he cashes out the last $40 and staggers over to the Monopoly
machine where, perversely enough, he wins $200.

After a day off, our somewhat rattled hero returns to the trenches
to play NSUD and $1 DB at the Palms on a triple-point day. He gets
lotsa points as this time it takes nine whole hours to lose $2000.
There are no quad Aces in DB or quad deuces in NSUD to stop the
bleeding.

The following day he decides to check out the Multiline Multistrike
at BS. This proves to be a bad idea as he loses $1600 playing the
TEN CENT version of this game (yes, it's $8 a bet, but, STILL...)
While trying to lose his last $400 on DB, his cell phone mercifully
rings; he has to leave. He cashes out for a total loss of $1730 for
the day.

Having decided that it might be quarter time, he goes down to the
Palms the following day to pick up some bounceback cash and play
some nice, gentle, friendly .25 Joker. He loses $100 in half an hour
without geting any four of a kinds. For some reason he puts in
another hundred; the machine stabilizes; he hits a straight flush
and cashes out down a mere $50.

Being minus $8530 for less than a week is enough to make you want to
go home and bite the dog. It's just an expression of what can happen
playing high-volatility, break-even games. I'm going to drop down to
the quarter level and regroup, since while I could afford more
losses of this magnitude, I'm not sure my PSYCHE could afford it.

But you know what really is making me quit dollar games? The
realization that hitting a couple of royals for $8000 (which
happened last month) didn't feel nearly as good, as losing $8000+
this month felt BAD. And that's the sign of having reached the
threshold, I think. The quarter game can be just as fun, and just as
profitable; last month I had a +$4000 DAY playing quarters.

#4

rockofjello333 wrote:

There's been a lot of discussion about high volatility VP and
reports of horrible losses in a short period of time. Well:

... play horror story followed ...

But you know what really is making me quit dollar games? The
realization that hitting a couple of royals for $8000 (which
happened last month) didn't feel nearly as good, as losing $8000+
this month felt BAD. And that's the sign of having reached the
threshold, I think. The quarter game can be just as fun, and just as
profitable; last month I had a +$4000 DAY playing quarters.

Others have expressed appreciation for this forthright tale. I
certainly think it's immensely valuable when we hear about the Trip
Through Hell in addition to tales of Pennies From Heaven (which are
far more comfortable to crow about).

However, the discussion of the past couple of weeks leaves me uneasy
about the prospects in the coming weeks given this post. Rock tells
us that he's pulling back to quarters. I wish, given sentiments he's
has expressed, that he were pulling play all together.

···

------

Here's what he's borne testament to (excerpted):

Multiline Flush Anomalies: Why would casinos gaff machines rather
than lower paytables? Because they can have their cake and eat it
too. The risked shut down due to non random machines has never and
will never happen.

Realized After 3 Years: We have been deeply suspicious for several
years about the honesty and randomness of casino VP machines ...
there's far too much smoke for there not to be some fire.

Poop Talk: No casino has ever been raided, or had even one of it's VP
machines pulled off the floor for inspection. Such surprise
inspection would seem to be part of an obvious part of enforcement
policy; therefore no active enforcement policy exists.

Further flush draw data: Gaming Control Board - "Fox in Charge of the
Hen House"

------

These statements, and others, are unambiguous in asserting that he
finds it very probable that casinos gaff some of their better machines
and that the Gaming Control Board is a toothless watchdog.

I'll ask, as I have before, why does Rock (or anyone else with these
sentiments) continue playing?

Rock now reports an earthshattering loss. While he introduces none of
the thoughts expressed in these threads, putting myself in his shoes
I'd have little doubt just how this terribly "anomalous" loss has come
about. Thousands of dollars down the drain and ill luck is likely
only partly responsible.

I think we'll be hearing about the rest of the tale soon. That's ok.
For perhaps the first time I'll find the "discipline" :wink: to sit that
one out.

- Harry

#5

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:

However, the discussion of the past couple of weeks leaves me

uneasy about the prospects in the coming weeks given this post.
Rock tells us that he's pulling back to quarters. I wish, given
sentiments he has expressed, that he were pulling play all together.

There are a few isolated plays where the machines seem to play
decently. When I mention a Deuces machine that "plays the way they
used to", everyone nods; they know what I'm talking about. Here are
the machines/venues that I actually believe are completely on the
level, based on that admittedly imperfect barometer, long-term
results:

.25 FPDW and .25 FPJW at the Palms
.25 FPJW, FPDW (Cortez Deuces) at the El Cortez
.25 any fullpay at Casino MonteLago

That's about it!

You notice, I don't include ANY dollar machines even at those three
properties. The most recent bloodbath, coupled with other ghastly
results, has made me want to back off. I mean, I COULD be the
unluckiest guy on earth, or I COULD be playing far, far worse than I
think I am, but when yet another 100,000-to-one-against losing
session occurs (that's what my sketchpad math tells me the odds were
against losing $8000 in twenty hours of play). The Cortez dollar
Jokers: I have never seen anyone hit a royal on them. Palms 10/7 DB
has played horribly for me, with very low quad frequency. Palms $1
NSUD; ONE set of deuces in 35,000 hands. Et cetera!

I'll ask, as I have before, why does Rock (or anyone else with

these sentiments) continue playing?

Perhaps because I believed the "advice", sometime received at the
business end of a bullhorn, as it were, that there is no way a major
casino (ha ha ha) owned by a prestigious national corporation
(guffaw guffaw snort) would endanger its gaming license
(HOHOHOHOHOHOHOHHO) by cheating, which, as we all know, is WRONG
(unless you are pandering to a high roller, or some other good
reason).

Rock now reports an earthshattering loss. While he introduces

none of the thoughts expressed in these threads, putting myself in
his shoes I'd have little doubt just how this terribly "anomalous"
loss has come about. Thousands of dollars down the drain and ill
luck is likely only partly responsible.

You know what? By now, I don't care if invisible devil fairies from
the ninth dimension are on a vindictive quest to destroy me because
the last time I made myself an ice cream sundae, I destroyed their
ancient sacred burial ground and now they are hiding one of each
pair of my socks and altering my VP results. The bottom line is,
THIS SHIT AIN'T WORKING.
I actually expect some major explosion sometime in the near future
as someone who doesn't CARE about getting his house burned down or
his head blown off shares with us the REAL story of VP programming
and anomalous behavior. I wouldn't be surprised if several
contractual and other, shall we say, "inducements" have prevented
anyone from blabbing so far.

I think we'll be hearing about the rest of the tale soon. That's

ok. For perhaps the first time I'll find the "discipline" :wink: to sit
that one out.

You've heard it all; I don't intend to elaborate. The reasons I
didn't state the conclusion that one might draw from this result in
the context of my suspicions is that the conclusion was kind of
obvious.

I think that even at the quarter level, we need to monitor and
compare results. The database needs to be kept scrupulously up-to-
date as well.

Here's one item I'd LOVE to have more data on: You know how Main
Street Station had always had crappy inventory, and when they pulled
the 10/7/80 DBs along with the last three FPDW, there wasn't
anything even close to fullpay left in the joint? This sends a
message: WE AREN'T MAKING ENOUGH MONEY (which in casinospeak often
means, "we aren't making as much money as we think we should") ON
THESE MACHINES. NOW, they put in a whole bunch of FPDW that
THEORETICALLY, should do as badly or worse than the machines they
pulled! It doesn't make much sense when you think about it--UNLESS
these machines aren't REALLY "fullpay". For what it's worth, I
played two separate sessions of about three hours total and lost
$500. (The incident I described in an earlier post, where I was
denied a buffet comp after ten hours' play, was, after I
doublechecked my records, from some time earlier, on the 10/7/80 DB).

I wish everyone good luck in their VP play; I think having good luck
is going to be the only way to win.

#6

I'll preface by saying that I'm not looking to get into a pissing
match with "Rock" (because this post could be interpreted that way).

There are a couple of things that come across as not being fully
consistent in his jottings and I really just want to feel the
situation out a little so that I have a solid grip on his positions.

rockofjello333 wrote:

There are a few isolated plays where the machines seem to play
decently. When I mention a Deuces machine that "plays the way they
used to", everyone nods; they know what I'm talking about.

Others may, but the phrasing is lost on me in terms of my own
experience. Just an observation; there's not much more to be said and
I do grasp what you're conveying.

Here are the machines/venues that I actually believe are completely
on the level, based on that admittedly imperfect barometer,
long-term results:

.25 FPDW and .25 FPJW at the Palms
.25 FPJW, FPDW (Cortez Deuces) at the El Cortez
.25 any fullpay at Casino MonteLago

That's about it!

So, if I understand you correctly, based upon your play experience you
have reasonable confidence in the fairness of these particular
machines and are comfortable playing them.

In the case of other casinos/machines, they have to one degree or
another given you discomfort during your play experience and you feel
that there's a significant "gaffing" risk. While I'll say again that
this type of gut feeling about the machines is alien to me, I won't
dispute that your sensibilities here may be very much on target.

But, now speaking from my experience, if I had a realistic sense that
vp machines had been tampered with to the extent that you fear,
possibly across several casinos, my gut couldn't take confort in play
anywhere. In your shoes I'd find myself constantly on the watch that
the machines I did choose to play might become gaffed themselves.
(You later list Palms on your suspect list.)

These aren't circumstances under which I'd enjoy/choose to play.

The most recent bloodbath, coupled with other ghastly
results, has made me want to back off.

But your fairness concerns to date weren't cause to?

I stress this question because I'll own up to having had doubts in at
least a couple of instances. On the spot I had to challenge myself to
either dismiss this or take them to heart and leave. The alternative
makes for too far a sour experience.

What should come through in my remarks is that your approach is simply
alien to me -- and is why I find it difficult to grasp. These
comments aren't an out right challenge to what you've said. I'm
trying to feel things out further to better understand.

In response to:

> I'll ask, as I have before, why does Rock (or anyone else with
> these sentiments) continue playing?

You replied:

Perhaps because I believed the "advice", sometime received at the
business end of a bullhorn, as it were, that there is no way a major
casino (ha ha ha) owned by a prestigious national corporation
(guffaw guffaw snort) would endanger its gaming license
(HOHOHOHOHOHOHOHHO) by cheating, which, as we all know, is WRONG
(unless you are pandering to a high roller, or some other good
reason).

This "belief" on your part would appear to have gone out the window
quite some time ago ... considerably before your described loss debacle.

···

------

Rock, you introduce a condensation/paraphrasing from my post that
bewilders me. I don't think it bears further comment other than to
say that you've totally lost me here.

> Rock now reports an earthshattering loss. While he introduces
none of the thoughts expressed in these threads, putting myself in
his shoes I'd have little doubt just how this terribly "anomalous"
loss has come about. Thousands of dollars down the drain and ill
luck is likely only partly responsible.

------

I invite you comments, Rock, if you've a desire to make them. Let's
agree that I'll leave any reply stand and not belabor my concerns.

- Harry

#7

Harry,
Without reproducing your last post verbatim (there are so many cross-
references and quotes that only the two of us could tell who said
what by this time), I'll answer what sem to be your two main
questions:

1. Given my suspicions, (and the circumstantial evidence that seems
to back them up), why have I continued to play?

activity that has afford me not only a great deal of recreation, but
also substantial profits, over the last several years. While
the "jury was still out", I felt, it would be a shame to cease
playing prematurely, or for the wrong reasons, especially since the
whole point will be moot when fullpay VP disappears forever in a
year or so.

2. Why am I reasonably confident in the integrity of the three
casino plays that I mentioned?

developed their marketing on the premise that fullpay VP is
profitable for the house and good for the player at the same time. I
think that even if these casinos wanted to gaff their .25 games, it
would be too labor-intensive and the exposure would be too great,
and because they have so many FP machines, the alternative of
removing 95% of them and gaffing the rest (a Stations Casinos
tactic) is not available to them.

···

A: It takes concrete, convincing evidence for me to abandon an
A: The Fiesta/Palms (Maloof), Cortez, and Montelago have all

#8

rockofjello333 wrote:

Harry,
Without reproducing your last post verbatim (there are so many cross-
references and quotes that only the two of us could tell who said
what by this time), I'll answer what sem to be your two main
questions:

1. Given my suspicions, (and the circumstantial evidence that seems
to back them up), why have I continued to play?

A: It takes concrete, convincing evidence for me to abandon an
activity that has afford me not only a great deal of recreation, but
also substantial profits, over the last several years.

snip

Maybe it's just me, but I find it odd that you have made "substantial profits, over the last several years" from video poker, yet haven't you voiced some very strong suspicions that the casinos have gaffed the vp machines in their favor, or am I confusing you with someone else? If you're ahead overall, then what is the basis for such suspicions if you have any?

Bill Velek

#9

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rockofjello333" <rockofjello333@y...>
wrote:

I wish everyone good luck in their VP play; I think having good

luck

is going to be the only way to win.

luck in the short term, skill in the long term

at N0 hands, 84% chance of being a winner, at 4N0 hands, 98% chance
N0=variance/(er+cashback-1)^2 hands
assuming er+cb>1, near perfect play, honest machines and a bankroll
[variance/(er+cashback-1) bets] sufficient to weather the droughts

#10

Maybe it's just me, but I find it odd that you have

made "substantial

profits, over the last several years" from video poker, yet

haven't you

voiced some very strong suspicions that the casinos have gaffed

the vp

machines in their favor, or am I confusing you with someone else?

If

you're ahead overall, then what is the basis for such suspicions

if you

have any?

I could swear I've said this many many many times, but I'll say it
again:

For five years in my case and considerably longer in others' cases,
we have shown steady profits that are in line with our long-term
expectations.
In the last two years the majority (12 of 15) of us have booked
large losses.
Either we have collectively forgotten how to play VP, or something
out there is amiss.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bill Velek <billvelek@a...> wrote:

#11

Hi there

I hate to get into this discussion, but......I will.
I only play about 15 weekends a year. In addition, I play vegas 1-2
weeks a year. I too have noticed a decline in profits. However, my
play is too little to draw conclusions. I have attributed loss in
profit to the newer faster processors in replacement machines. In the
old days I could sit at a dollar 9/6 and play all day when the
machine was hitting. The old IGTs seemed to (don't all of you laugh
here) bunch up in a hit mode. When I say play all day, I mean
starting in afternoon maybe at 3 pm and still be playing at 4am with
8 or 10 racks af dollars stacked on side of machine and 200 credits
on machine. Many here don't know what a rack of dollars is. This
still happens with machines today, but they are far and few between.

What's happening? Before everyone attacks with RNG comments, think of
this. If you haven't played the older stuff you need not comment at
all. You have nothing to compare to. Lenny Frome mentions in one of
his first booklets play the machine till it starts to decline
profits. I could look up the exact lines, but I don't have time. He
may or may not have mentioned this for money management. I think the
new stuff seems to pay less. I think that's because the new
processors make the machine less volatile. There are less ups and
downs. As a result there is a very sure steady decline in bankroll.
If you and your friends have experienced a 2 yr loss then it's just
bad luck. You realize some people can have whole lifetimes of bad
luck. Therefore, 10 people could have 2 years of bad luck. Of course
some have whole lifetimes of good luck. Gladstone Gander, Donald
Ducks cousin, is a good example of someone with good luck.

Bottom line. If it's not fun anymore or if it's not profitable hang
up your quarter pouch. Gee, we don't use quarters anymore. I guess
it's now "hang up your wallets".

Cheers...Jeep

could swear I've said this many many many times, but I'll say it

···

again:

For five years in my case and considerably longer in others' cases,
we have shown steady profits that are in line with our long-term
expectations.
In the last two years the majority (12 of 15) of us have booked
large losses.
Either we have collectively forgotten how to play VP, or something
out there is amiss.