vpFREE2 Forums

The Truman Story

#1

In an effort to fjord the chasm between cold mathematic reality and the true or untrue tales of skullduggery, I will herewith post my actual results on a monthly basis for all to see. From what I can gather, this is a first on this board.

I do not apologize for the fact that all my play is 8-5 Bonus (except at Hooters, where I play that weird 9-6 JoB with the 239 SF). I'm not stupid, just too lazy to learn and memorize the strategy for games with wild cards. OK? Some of this is 3-play and some is single line, but from what I read here the strategy and EV is exactly the same, although the variance is different.

January 2010

53139 hands played.

151 Quads. I believe this shorts me about 23 quads I did not differentiate between which type of quads.

8 Straight Flushes. This is about exactly the expectation, no?

No Royals. :frowning: I say I am owed about 2, rounding UP of course..:slight_smile:

The weird part is my total return for the month was only -0.56%, which is better than expectations even with the paucity of Quads and Royals. My guess is that I had a higher proportion of Aces and must have been lucky with the more minor jackpots.

So there it is. See you March 1.

#2

Great report big rich...I enjoy reading about someone's actual results.

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To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: bigrich@publicist.com
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2010 04:37:37 +0000
Subject: [vpFREE] The Truman Story

In an effort to fjord the chasm between cold mathematic reality and the true or untrue tales of skullduggery, I will herewith post my actual results on a monthly basis for all to see. From what I can gather, this is a first on this board.

I do not apologize for the fact that all my play is 8-5 Bonus (except at Hooters, where I play that weird 9-6 JoB with the 239 SF). I'm not stupid, just too lazy to learn and memorize the strategy for games with wild cards. OK? Some of this is 3-play and some is single line, but from what I read here the strategy and EV is exactly the same, although the variance is different.

January 2010

53139 hands played.

151 Quads. I believe this shorts me about 23 quads I did not differentiate between which type of quads.

8 Straight Flushes. This is about exactly the expectation, no?

No Royals. :frowning: I say I am owed about 2, rounding UP of course..:slight_smile:

The weird part is my total return for the month was only -0.56%, which is better than expectations even with the paucity of Quads and Royals. My guess is that I had a higher proportion of Aces and must have been lucky with the more minor jackpots.

So there it is. See you March 1.

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#3

I am doing the same thing on VPFree_Detroit. I broke mine out into (a lot) more detail. It is in the files section.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dixiepokerace" <bigrich@...> wrote:

In an effort to fjord the chasm between cold mathematic reality and the true or untrue tales of skullduggery, I will herewith post my actual results on a monthly basis for all to see. From what I can gather, this is a first on this board.........................

#4

151 quads in 53139 hands equates to one every 352 hands. Given that the long term average "expected" occurance is one in about 423 hands for the games you played, you did not experience a paucity of quads. It appears you were 25 over average, rather than 23 below.

You did well on straight flushes, too. The expectation would be 6, not 8.

All else being equal, if your quads and straight flushes had been average, your loss rate would have been a little over 2%.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dixiepokerace" <bigrich@...> wrote:

In an effort to fjord the chasm between cold mathematic reality and the true or untrue tales of skullduggery...... >
.

January 2010

53139 hands played.

151 Quads. I believe this shorts me about 23 quads I did not differentiate between which type of quads.

8 Straight Flushes. This is about exactly the expectation, no?

No Royals. :frowning: I say I am owed about 2, rounding UP of course..:slight_smile:

The weird part is my total return for the month was only -0.56%, which is better than expectations even with the paucity of Quads and Royals.

#5

151 quads in 53139 hands equates to one every 352 hands. Given that the long term average "expected" occurance is one in about 423 hands for the games you played, you did not experience a paucity of quads. It appears you were 25 over average, rather than 23 below.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Neil" <nembree@...> wrote:

A: You are correct - I mistyped my hands played, which changes things significantly. Hands played were 59139, not 53139. It looks like I still came out ahead at 1 per 391 hands, I also used DOLLARS rather than HANDS (I play quarters, as you can calculate) to consider my probabilities, which is a grievous error. Thank you for pointing both of these errors out - they will be corrected for the February report.

#6

That is an impressive piece of work, although you need more data..:).

I thought about getting more granular, but stopping to record each "event" is already slowing me down enough and drawing funny stares (my method of recording is to text myself a message - I'm sure I either look very busy or like a real a$h0le to anyone observing me)..:slight_smile:

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote:

I am doing the same thing on VPFree_Detroit. I broke mine out into (a lot) more detail. It is in the files section.

#7

I originally started doing this because just playing single line quarter NSUD isn't all that exciting and I wanted to get some actual play to what the results would look like. Then I got a good offer for the PE and decided to expand my records. All I do for record keeping is to make a mark on a piece of paper for the big hands. Straight flush or better in deuces or Straight or better in PE.

My original theory was that the session delta caused by the big hands would be about the same as the overall results for the session. For deuces, it was pretty close. For PE , not so much.

As I play more, I will add to the file.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dixiepokerace" <bigrich@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@> wrote:

> I am doing the same thing on VPFree_Detroit. I broke mine out into (a lot) more detail. It is in the files section.

That is an impressive piece of work, although you need more data..:).

I thought about getting more granular, but stopping to record each "event" is already slowing me down enough and drawing funny stares (my method of recording is to text myself a message - I'm sure I either look very busy or like a real a$h0le to anyone observing me)..:slight_smile: