Once again possibly the product of selective memory, but our VP
bunch noticed that immediately after just missing a big hand, you
would often receive a decent-paying hand such as a full house in DB
or a SF in FPDW. I jokingly remarked that this was to keep you from
bashing in the screen after the previous "big miss". So we started
calling this the "screen saver" hand. Since we started noticing
this, it seems that vastly more often than not, within one or two
hands of the "scare", the 5-10 bet winner "screen saver" hand comes
out. And conversely:
The "Punishment Phase": often at FPDW after getting a wild royal,
the next 7-10 hands would be losers. Also noticed this at Joker
after getting a 4K. Now, since both these games have a very high hit
rate, it's hard to get a long losing streak (not that we haven't all
done it at some time or another). So even a 7 or 8 losers-in-a-row
streak is quite uncommon (for those of you who follow baseball, the
Tampa Bay Devil Rays have about the same winning percentage as a VP
player does (we are talking about individual hands/games here); but
even for them, an eight-game losing streak is very rare).
Also for the record, followups on statistical reportage from 2002,
continuing into the first five months of 2003:
1. Triple-play/five-play flush draws: The connection rate is holding
steady at 6.09 to 1. This is the sum of all one-card draws to
flushes on non-wildcard multiline machines. The expected hit rate is
9 in 47, or 5.2 to 1. This equates to one less flush than "expected"
every 500+ hands, or a loss of more than 1% return (results vary on
how often the missed flush snagged a high pair, straight, etc.)
Our sample size is now over 3,000,000 hands.
2. One-card draws to royals: "The streak" is now at 188. The total
results are: 1 royal made in 316 draws. "The hit" was at #128.
Actual expected results: 1 in 47, or about 7 royals in 316 draws.
3. Dealt royals: One in 5,000,000+ hands (single and multiline).
Actual expectation: One in 740,000 (approx.)
4. Dealt quads on multiline: 25 in 1,000,000 plays (approx. no. of
plays). Don't remember the numbers, but there are 13 x 48 ways of
getting dealt quads, so 624 hands, in 2,800,000 possible deals. It
would seem that we should have gotten 200+ dealt quads in 1,000,000
deals.
This is an ongoing statistical analysis from the year 2000,
reflecting over a dozen players' results. Last year, the posting of
this data, and a request for analysis, resulted in flaming,
derision, and insults from the denizens of a certain VP group. I did
not receive any meaningful feedback.
Therefore I leave the above observations for anyone who wishes to
draw their OWN conclusions.