vpFREE2 Forums

The Role Of Your Bank ...

#1

People think in terms of luck and timing and all that.

But video poker is pure and simple mathematics.

Over time, given a certain paytable, there is a strong probability
that certain hands will appear a certain number of times.

And, if all those hands appear as mathematically specified, you will
be returned approximately 99% to even a rare 100% of the money you
put in.

So how can people understand video poker yet still lose thousands of
dollars (as Jean herself did before "rebounding")?

The reality is that cards do follow the mathematics, but in the short
term they most certainly do not. I once got back-to back-to back four-
of-a-kinds on a machine. In Jacks, I should have had to wait another
400 hands or so before ever seeing the second one.

It's not the good times proper bankroll refers to - it's the opposite
times when the four-of-a-kind doesn't appear in a thousand or more
hands. During those times, your Jacks machine is not returning the
99.5% you would expect. It can be dramatically less. And you need to
survive until the laws of math correct that situation. If you have
the proper bankroll, you have a much better chance of doing just that.

#2

The reality is that cards do follow the mathematics, but in the short
term they most certainly do not.

There's nothing about fluctuation that violates the laws of
mathematics. I believe it's analogous to religion in that "faith" is
required to see the expected value that fluctuation "hides."

I once got back-to back-to back four-
of-a-kinds on a machine. In Jacks, I should have had to wait another
400 hands or so before ever seeing the second one.

I wouldn't use the word "should" here. I'd say "would, on average."

I don't believe I've ever hit 3 4 of a kinds in a row on a single line
machine without wild cards. The best I can brag about is hitting 4 4s
back to back. I'd guess that I "should" have hit the same
denomination back to back more than once by now.

#3

I agree with Tom here. Those are all independent events. The fact that
there is in average one such hand every N hands doesn't mean that
there is any kind of cycle or rhythm to the way the individual events
occur. You're as likely to hit a hand right away as you are after 400
hands, or after 800 for that matter.

BTW, the probability of waiting one "cycle" or more for an event to
happen is only 36%. Not negligible, but certainly not extremely large
either.

If you wat a guaranteed fixed return, call your bank and ask about
certificates of deposit.

JBQ

···

On 1/17/06, Tom Robertson <thomasrrobertson@earthlink.net> wrote:

I wouldn't use the word "should" here. I'd say "would, on average."

#4

Several months ago, I hit a Royal on my third hand and 15 minutes
later hit another Royal. The following morning, I hit a third Royal.
My luck didnt hold over the next 5 days, but I went home with my stake
plus one Royal in my pocket. RAY

···

I agree with Tom here. Those are all independent events. The fact that
there is in average one such hand every N hands doesn't mean that
there is any kind of cycle or rhythm to the way the individual events
occur. You're as likely to hit a hand right away as you are after 400
hands, or after 800 for that matter.

BTW, the probability of waiting one "cycle" or more for an event to
happen is only 36%. Not negligible, but certainly not extremely large
either.

If you wat a guaranteed fixed return, call your bank and ask about
certificates of deposit.

JBQ

On 1/17/06, Tom Robertson <thomasrrobertson@e...> wrote:
> I wouldn't use the word "should" here. I'd say "would, on average."