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The Perfect Bet

I'll be interested to hear what you think of the book after you've read it. I received it as a gift, and (my opinion, others may disagree) while it was OK, it's not all that wonderful in my opinion. Mostly early history of gambling (lots of dice stuff), history of biased roulette wheels and those exploiting them, card counters, a little on game theory, a lot on computers analyzing checkers, chess, and poker, but not much that will be new to most on this forum, and not much information that could be translated into new advantages over the casino.
Again, it was an OK read, but especially had nothing to make me a better player or give me advantages I didn't already know about.
--BG===============
4a. The Perfect Bet

I just ordered a book called The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math are taking the Luck Out of Gambling, by Adam Kucharski.

I did this after catching a Washington Post article that interviewed the author. The link to the article is very long and I can't figure out how to post it.

If you google "three basic mistakes that people make at casinos" you will find the article.

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Mickey wrote: "If you google "three basic mistakes that people make at casinos" you will find the article. "

Notice that the third mistake is "gambler's ruin", which is the tendency of most people to increase their bet size when they win (which is correct) but fail to reduce their bet size when they lose. Bet size needs to be in proportion to current bankroll, the Kelly fraction would seem the obvious place to start, but gamblers are free to see if they can do better than J.L Kelly.

As a very rough rule of thumb, don't bet more than your current bankroll times your edge divided by the variance. It should be obvious that you can always bet less.

Bob Dancer expressed another rough rule of thumb in his last article: "If one royal flush is a life-changing experience, you’re playing for stakes that are much too high for you."

John Larry Kelly, Jr. - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Larry_Kelly,_Jr

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Larry_Kelly,_Jr

John Larry Kelly, Jr. - Wikipedia, the free encycl... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Larry_Kelly,_Jr John Larry Kelly, Jr. (1923–1965), was a scientist who worked at Bell Labs. He is best known for formulating the Kelly criterion, a formula to determine wha...

View on en.wikiped... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Larry_Kelly,_Jr
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