vpFREE2 Forums

The Montana Play

#1

Brilliant input, as usual. We're talking Montana BARS here genius, and mickeyc's talking nonsense. He's an alcoholic who probably can't remember what he did yesterday let alone in some fantasy a week or more ago. And he did the "analyzing" on his old laptop that he can't afford to update.

A "woman" keeping an aging, out of shape barfly in Montana? Hahaha! Better check with the bartenders on that one.

Keep lapping it up 2-Wild (is that anonymous??). He needs all the help he can get. Obama isn't giving him enough.

Great story from the AP vault Mickey!

You've talked about this play from time to time, but I don't remember if you told us exactly how you decided the game was worth analyzing? And did you do it long-hand with a calculator? I'm not sure if this schedule will fit software, so today's spoiled players might have been unable to solve the payback and strategy and given up. But you figured it out. Impressive!

Once you get a play like this, the problem becomes milking it without drawing attention to yourself or tipping off the casino to the drain from the game. I'm sure you just rotated casinos, but it must have been tricky planning how you would do it?

Stories?

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogro ups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@ ...> wrote:

I didn't come to Montana looking for an edge. A couple of years ago I just happened to be passing through and decided to stop into the Crystal Lounge in Billings, Montana. The Crystal was the first place I ever played Texas Holdem back in 1984. So I just figured to stop in and see how the old cardroom was doing. It's where Annie Duke got her start.

There were 20 multi-game machines sitting off the cardroom. I'm sitting there playing poker and looking at those machines and thinking to myself "I can go over there and check payscales but I'm not gonna find anything here. It's just not the kind of territory one would find an edge. It's bound to be all sucker games."

But I go over anyway and start looking at the payscales not expecting to find anything--but I did. That's how it all started.

You're right about Nevada. Especially right now. I haven't said anything about it, and I will have to shut up about it--I got friends who wouldn't be too pleased--but anyone with a clue can run $8000 to $10,000 a month in freeplay/bounceback in Las Vegas right now.

Why am I not there? There is a woman involved. She doesn't want me to leave Montana. And I don't want to leave Montana/her either. Except maybe for some short trips.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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On Mon, 5/11/09, 2-WILD <lucky4K@MSN.com> wrote:

#2

R
Rob, there is no softmare on the market than can alalyze Jackopt Aces. But this drunk did. What's up with that, puss?

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--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Rob Singer <robsinger1111@...> wrote:

Brilliant input, as usual. We're talking Montana BARS here genius, and mickeyc's talking nonsense. He's an alcoholic who probably can't remember what he did yesterday let alone in some fantasy a week or more ago. And he did the "analyzing" on his old laptop that he can't afford to update.

#3

I love you too, Rob.

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--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Rob Singer <robsinger1111@...> wrote:

Brilliant input, as usual. We're talking Montana BARS here genius, and mickeyc's talking nonsense. He's an alcoholic who probably can't remember what he did yesterday let alone in some fantasy a week or more ago. And he did the "analyzing" on his old laptop that he can't afford to update.

A "woman" keeping an aging, out of shape barfly in Montana? Hahaha! Better check with the bartenders on that one.

#4

It was pretty obvious that it was a huge mistake. All the other machines had the Aces Full hand starting at $10.00. But then I seen one where it started at $100.

No software available yet can analyze the game fully. But the software can do most of the work. I used Frugal at first, then WVP later. You can punch the payscale into WVP and make the adjustment for the 4 Aces. Then you can tweak the strategy chart and analyze again.

I had to have the Pair of Aces and the One Ace in their proper places on the strategy chart in order to get the right stats on making Aces Full--and to get the right payback percentage. The pair of Aces is a no brainer. It goes right under Two Pair. I had to figure out what the extra EV was for making Aces Full holding One Ace. Holding the One Ace you have to catch a pair of Aces along with another pair: There would be 3 aces left in the deck plus 60 pairs so the equation is 3 X 60 divided by 194,580 = 1081. The Aces Full pays 200 for one but the software accounts for 9 of those bets. So I divided 191 by 1081 to get the extra EV. I was then able to tweak the One Ace into it's proper place on the strategy chart. Then I analyzed again and it showed a payback of 91.0645%.

Then all I had to do was figure the overall chances of making Aces Full.

WVP has an "add stats" function on the strategy chart that is a huge help. At least it saved me a lot of time in figuring the chances of making Aces Full. I brought the "appeared" function up to the strategy chart. This function will tell you the number of combinations in the deck that make that particular hand.

For instance, if you look at the Pair of Aces on the strategy chart the "appeared" function will say 84,384 So it's just a matter of dividing 2,869,685 by 84,384 which = 34.007454. Then it's just a matter of figuring out how often the hand will turn into Aces Full. You would have to catch one ace and a pair. So the equation would be 2 X 63 divided by the number of combinations left in the deck, 17,296 which equals 137.26984. Then it' just a matter of multiplying 34.007454 X 137.26984 which = 4668.1977. That's how often we will catch a pair of Aces on the flop and turn it into Aces Full.

I won't go through all the math involved but these are all the ways we can get to Aces Full.

Dealt Aces Full.............................................. 9,964
Catch Three Aces and turn it into Aces Full..................13,068
Catch Two Aces and turn it into Aces Full.................... 4,668
Catch One Ace and turn it into Aces Full..................... 8,380
Catch a Regular Pair and turn it into Aces Full..............17,363
Catch a Pair with an Ace Kicker and turn it into Aces Full... 4,530
Catch Two Pair (Aces up) and turn it into Aces Full.......... 3,623
Draw Five Cards and turn it into Aces Full...................64,743

The above averages to 925.7. The Aces Full pays 200+ for one, but the software accounts for 9 of those bets. So I divided 191 by 925.7 which = 20.57%, to get the add on for the Aces Full hand. Adding that to the base game = 111.6345%.

I went through the same process to get the odds of the Five Aces hand and the whole thing came up to 112.5%. Then I added the 2% worth of meters.

Do you remember that old saying in video poker "Never hold a kicker with a pair"? Well, that's not true in this game. We be holdin' that Ace Kicker with a pair.

At last count there are about 20,000 machines spread out over about 1800 licensed establishments in Montana. You have to have a liquor license to have machines. State law is no more than 20 machines per licensed establishment. So the casinos here are just mini-casinos. Slot route operators take care of the machines.

These mini-casinos can't stand a whole lot of punishment by someone like me. So I would rotate through all the places I found the mistake just taking out around a thousand dollars out of a machine. Then I would leave that machine alone for awhile and let it soak up some ploppie money.

"Chance favors the prepared mind." I've been studying and applying combinatorial math for 17 years now. I was in the right place at the right time and had the requisite skills to analyze the play. And that makes me a very lucky man.

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--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Rob Singer <robsinger1111@...> wrote:

Great story from the AP vault Mickey!

You've talked about this play from time to time, but I don't remember if you told us exactly how you decided the game was worth analyzing? And did you do it long-hand with a calculator? I'm not sure if this schedule will fit software, so today's spoiled players might have been unable to solve the payback and strategy and given up. But you figured it out. Impressive!

Once you get a play like this, the problem becomes milking it without drawing attention to yourself or tipping off the casino to the drain from the game. I'm sure you just rotated casinos, but it must have been tricky planning how you would do it?

Stories?