vpFREE2 Forums

The Long Run?

I wonder about the long run with perfect play. I just ran a
simulation on WinPoker of one million hands, which should count as
the long run, of $1.00 10/7 DBP. I started each session, of 100,000
hands, with $100, and assumed I had an unlimited bankroll. WinPoker
was set at Autoplay, so every hand was played computer perfect.
And, of course, 10/7 DBP is a positive expection game, with a
100.1725% return. At least, that's the theory. However, as the
results show:

Session Win/Lose
1. +1090
2. -8600
3. -780
4. +13665
5. -9290
6. +11425
7. -7495
8. -14750
9. -3865
10. +7655

Total -10945

So, after 1,000,000 hands (and at 600 hands per hour, that's 69
solid, 24 hour days of video poker), the advantage player still
loses almost $11,000. I sure hope the difference can be made up in
comps and cashback!

I wonder about the long run with perfect play. I just ran a
simulation on WinPoker of one million hands, which should count as
the long run, of $1.00 10/7 DBP. I started each session, of

100,000

hands, with $100, and assumed I had an unlimited bankroll.

WinPoker

was set at Autoplay, so every hand was played computer perfect.
And, of course, 10/7 DBP is a positive expection game, with a
100.1725% return. At least, that's the theory. However, as the
results show:

Session Win/Lose
1. +1090
2. -8600
3. -780
4. +13665
5. -9290
6. +11425
7. -7495
8. -14750
9. -3865
10. +7655

Total -10945

So, after 1,000,000 hands (and at 600 hands per hour, that's 69
solid, 24 hour days of video poker), the advantage player still
loses almost $11,000. I sure hope the difference can be made up in
comps and cashback!

I've done the same thing on winpoker myself. This is a perfect
example of why no single players results are meaningful. This
mythical gambler would be but ONE point on the bell curve. If you
follow the same exercise 10 more times you will see different results
including several wins. In addition, if you do the same thing for a
better game, like FPDW, you will see a higher number of successful
runs due to it's higher payback.

Dick

PS. 1,000,000 hands at the $1 level with .25% cashback/bounceback
would be over $12K and that doesn't include comps and entertainment
value.

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "fsj10352a" <fsj10352a@y...> wrote:

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "fsj10352a" <fsj10352a@y...>

wrote:I wonder about the long run with perfect play. I just ran a

> simulation on WinPoker of one million hands, which should count

as the long run, of $1.00 10/7 DBP. I started each session, of

100,000 hands, with $100, and assumed I had an unlimited bankroll.
WinPoker was set at Autoplay, so every hand was played computer

perfect. And, of course, 10/7 DBP is a positive expection game, with
a 100.1725% return. At least, that's the theory. However, as the

results show:

Oh my goodness!! Did Dick get an eccletrical charge when he saw this
post or what?!!! A chance to use that computer-geek illogic and
theory!!

>
> Session Win/Lose
> 1. +1090
> 2. -8600
> 3. -780
> 4. +13665
> 5. -9290
> 6. +11425
> 7. -7495
> 8. -14750
> 9. -3865
> 10. +7655
>
> Total -10945
>
> So, after 1,000,000 hands (and at 600 hands per hour, that's 69
> solid, 24 hour days of video poker), the advantage player still
> loses almost $11,000. I sure hope the difference can be made up

in

> comps and cashback!

I've done the same thing on winpoker myself. This is a perfect
example of why no single players results are meaningful. This
mythical gambler would be but ONE point on the bell curve. If you
follow the same exercise 10 more times you will see different

results including several wins. In addition, if you do the same thing
for a better game, like FPDW, you will see a higher number of
successful runs due to it's higher payback.

So it's a crapshoot requiring a bankroll most people don't have.
Remember, gamblers typically are from the lower class of life.

PS. 1,000,000 hands at the $1 level with .25% cashback/bounceback
would be over $12K and that doesn't include comps and entertainment
value.

PPS: HAHAHA. Don't forget the logo toilet seats, the beanies with
propellers, and theose valuable smiles from your host as they are
just happy as a lark giving you all their company's money. What a
joke!!

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rgmustain" <rgmustain@a...> wrote: