vpFREE2 Forums

The long run

#1

In a message dated 2/7/2003 4:31:51 PM Pacific Standard Time,
quadzilla666@earthlink.net writes:

Let's look at a simpler example. Suppose you gamble on
tossing a fair coin.

Now let's add a 0.5% 'slot club' to the game.

This scenario is actually pretty similar to DB, but with
far less variance

If you play 10$ a game and play 10 games, you will have
a very strong chance of losing (a little under 50%). You
will win 50 cents cashback, but that won't be enough to
change things.

Now suppose you play this game 1,000,000 times. Now you
will receive $50,000 cashback. You will break even, or
better, if you manage to win at least 475,000 of the
games you play. It can be proved that winning fewer games
than this is HIGHLY unlikely.

While this is an excellent example, you lost a decimal place. At $10/toss,
you need to win at least 497,500 of the games you play to break even. Down
5000 games X $10/game = $50,000.

If we now play 10,000,000 times, we only need to win
4,750,000 hands to break even. That kind of result is
virtually impossible.

Likewise, lost a decimal again. You need to win 4,975,000 games to break
even, at $10/toss.

Variance is a factor.

Increasing the variance makes the probability of very extreme
results more likely. The impact on this situation is simply
to increase the number of hands one must play to be very sure of
being ahead. As an extreme case, a game like a lottery with a
high jackpot might take trillions of games to become 'certain'
of showing a profit.

A really good, easy to understand explanation.

Brian

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

Remember no-one and I mean no one plays perfect, even 1 mistake over 100 hands is a !% drop.
David k

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: BJayGold@aol.com
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 7:47 PM
  Subject: Re: [vpFREE] The long run

  In a message dated 2/7/2003 4:31:51 PM Pacific Standard Time,
  quadzilla666@earthlink.net writes:

  >
  > Let's look at a simpler example. Suppose you gamble on
  > tossing a fair coin.
  >
  > Now let's add a 0.5% 'slot club' to the game.
  >
  > This scenario is actually pretty similar to DB, but with
  > far less variance
  >
  > If you play 10$ a game and play 10 games, you will have
  > a very strong chance of losing (a little under 50%). You
  > will win 50 cents cashback, but that won't be enough to
  > change things.
  >
  > Now suppose you play this game 1,000,000 times. Now you
  > will receive $50,000 cashback. You will break even, or
  > better, if you manage to win at least 475,000 of the
  > games you play. It can be proved that winning fewer games
  > than this is HIGHLY unlikely.

  While this is an excellent example, you lost a decimal place. At $10/toss,
  you need to win at least 497,500 of the games you play to break even. Down
  5000 games X $10/game = $50,000.

  >
  > If we now play 10,000,000 times, we only need to win
  > 4,750,000 hands to break even. That kind of result is
  > virtually impossible.
  >

  Likewise, lost a decimal again. You need to win 4,975,000 games to break
  even, at $10/toss.

  > Variance is a factor.
  >
  > Increasing the variance makes the probability of very extreme
  > results more likely. The impact on this situation is simply
  > to increase the number of hands one must play to be very sure of
  > being ahead. As an extreme case, a game like a lottery with a
  > high jackpot might take trillions of games to become 'certain'
  > of showing a profit.
  >
  A really good, easy to understand explanation.

  Brian

  [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

  vpFREE Home Page:
  http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE

  vpFREE Links:
  http://www.lvcm.com/tomesims/VP/Links.html

  Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

<<<
Remember no-one and I mean no one plays perfect, even 1 mistake over 100
hands is a !% drop.
David

This really isn't relavent to the discussion of the long run and how well
you
will do. It does affect the ER, but not how long you should expect to
achieve
your particular ER.

Even so, let me address this.

Suppose you play $
DB for an hour and make 4 mistakes. This is pretty
reasonable. Now, what are the mistakes. Let's assume you manage to
drop 1 medium pair, you misplay two AHxyz hands (H - K,Q, or J) and
manage to hold a bare K instead of Kxx.

What does this cost?

Dropping the medium pair costs about $2.10
Missing the AH hands costs about 3 cents each
Missing the Kxx suited costs about 16 cents.

For $ deuces wild...

Dropping a pair only costs about $1.20.
Missing 278 and holding 2 only costs about 37 cents

My point here is that most errors don't cost all that much.
Even significant errors only cost a coin or 2.

Sure, once in awhile we might lose more, such as trying to
hold 277 and accidentally tossing a 7. That one costs about
6 coins. Those kinds of mistakes are pretty rare.

Assuming 800 hands per hour, which give $40000 coin in per hour,
this costs about 0.05%. This is much of the meager 0.17% edge,
but assuming you are getting cashback and bounceback of at least
0.5%, this only takes a small bite out

My personal opinion, based on my own mistakes, is that dropping
a pair happens less than once an hour. I expect most of us
give up less than 1 full bet per hour due to errors.

When I estimate my edge, I tend to subtract 0.1% to account
for errors, since I do sometimes manage to do something really
awful like missing a button and holding 27 instead of trips.

So, if I were to try to see if my long term results were
meeting expectations, I would assume an ER of about 100.6%
for deuces wild. Once that adjustment is made, the new
ER and the variance can be used to generate a probability
distribution to describe the likelihood of the various
results.

QZ

#4

Thank you very informative
David K

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: Quad Zilla
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 10:20 PM
  Subject: RE: [vpFREE] The long run

  <<<
  Remember no-one and I mean no one plays perfect, even 1 mistake over 100
  hands is a !% drop.
  David
  >>>

  This really isn't relavent to the discussion of the long run and how well
  you
  will do. It does affect the ER, but not how long you should expect to
  achieve
  your particular ER.

  Even so, let me address this.

  Suppose you play $
  DB for an hour and make 4 mistakes. This is pretty
  reasonable. Now, what are the mistakes. Let's assume you manage to
  drop 1 medium pair, you misplay two AHxyz hands (H - K,Q, or J) and
  manage to hold a bare K instead of Kxx.

  What does this cost?

  Dropping the medium pair costs about $2.10
  Missing the AH hands costs about 3 cents each
  Missing the Kxx suited costs about 16 cents.

  For $ deuces wild...

  Dropping a pair only costs about $1.20.
  Missing 278 and holding 2 only costs about 37 cents

  My point here is that most errors don't cost all that much.
  Even significant errors only cost a coin or 2.

  Sure, once in awhile we might lose more, such as trying to
  hold 277 and accidentally tossing a 7. That one costs about
  6 coins. Those kinds of mistakes are pretty rare.

  Assuming 800 hands per hour, which give $40000 coin in per hour,
  this costs about 0.05%. This is much of the meager 0.17% edge,
  but assuming you are getting cashback and bounceback of at least
  0.5%, this only takes a small bite out

  My personal opinion, based on my own mistakes, is that dropping
  a pair happens less than once an hour. I expect most of us
  give up less than 1 full bet per hour due to errors.

  When I estimate my edge, I tend to subtract 0.1% to account
  for errors, since I do sometimes manage to do something really
  awful like missing a button and holding 27 instead of trips.

  So, if I were to try to see if my long term results were
  meeting expectations, I would assume an ER of about 100.6%
  for deuces wild. Once that adjustment is made, the new
  ER and the variance can be used to generate a probability
  distribution to describe the likelihood of the various
  results.

  QZ

  vpFREE Home Page:
  http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE

  vpFREE Links:
  http://www.lvcm.com/tomesims/VP/Links.html

  Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

Quad, I agree with you completely. The downside is that I think casinos
agree also and FPDW is on the way out as a result. More and more people are
taking a bite out of the house profits by mastering FPDW.

···

***************
rastisrulz

----- Original Message -----
From: "Quad Zilla" <quadzilla666@earthlink.net>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 9:20 PM
Subject: RE: [vpFREE] The long run

<<<
Remember no-one and I mean no one plays perfect, even 1 mistake over 100
hands is a !% drop.
David
>>>

This really isn't relavent to the discussion of the long run and how well
you
will do. It does affect the ER, but not how long you should expect to
achieve
your particular ER.

Even so, let me address this.

Suppose you play $
DB for an hour and make 4 mistakes. This is pretty
reasonable. Now, what are the mistakes. Let's assume you manage to
drop 1 medium pair, you misplay two AHxyz hands (H - K,Q, or J) and
manage to hold a bare K instead of Kxx.

What does this cost?

Dropping the medium pair costs about $2.10
Missing the AH hands costs about 3 cents each
Missing the Kxx suited costs about 16 cents.

For $ deuces wild...

Dropping a pair only costs about $1.20.
Missing 278 and holding 2 only costs about 37 cents

My point here is that most errors don't cost all that much.
Even significant errors only cost a coin or 2.

Sure, once in awhile we might lose more, such as trying to
hold 277 and accidentally tossing a 7. That one costs about
6 coins. Those kinds of mistakes are pretty rare.

Assuming 800 hands per hour, which give $40000 coin in per hour,
this costs about 0.05%. This is much of the meager 0.17% edge,
but assuming you are getting cashback and bounceback of at least
0.5%, this only takes a small bite out

My personal opinion, based on my own mistakes, is that dropping
a pair happens less than once an hour. I expect most of us
give up less than 1 full bet per hour due to errors.

When I estimate my edge, I tend to subtract 0.1% to account
for errors, since I do sometimes manage to do something really
awful like missing a button and holding 27 instead of trips.

So, if I were to try to see if my long term results were
meeting expectations, I would assume an ER of about 100.6%
for deuces wild. Once that adjustment is made, the new
ER and the variance can be used to generate a probability
distribution to describe the likelihood of the various
results.

QZ

vpFREE Home Page:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE

vpFREE Links:
http://www.lvcm.com/tomesims/VP/Links.html

Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/

#6

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Video Poker Vegas" <vpvegas@c...>
wrote:

Quad, I agree with you completely. The downside is that I think

casinos

agree also and FPDW is on the way out as a result. More and more

people are

taking a bite out of the house profits by mastering FPDW.
***************
rastisrulz

I have always felt that the Casinos under the Casinos on the ladder
(no rooms, coffee shop only, maybe no Players club) would step up and
offer it to seize the opportunity and increase their local business.
We'd still have FPVP, but at a lower level.. Eventually, it would
probably go full circle.. And the current group would slowly
reinstate them...
IMHO
Rick(RI)