vpFREE2 Forums

The best play in Nevada, and why it's a dead duck

#1

Well, yes indeedy, it's true: Harvey's (concubine of Harrah's) Lake
Tahoe has (drum roll please) THREE $1/$2 multigamers with FULLPAY
DEUCES WILD. Gasp! This in a casino where you can't even find 9/6
JOB, or anything else decent for that matter (best game I found was
9/6 DDB).

This is a FANTASTIC play on the face of it, even though Harrah's
Totallly Worthless slot club only doles out a paltry 0.1% comps to
feelthy steenkin' VP players. So I decided to check it out...

HOW THE MACHINES PLAYED

In a nutshell, like shit. I played about ten hours at 800 hands/hr.
I only hit ONE wild royal the entire time, in my seventh hour of
play. No royals, and the only reprieve from a $3000 bloodbath was
hitting deuces with $60 in credits remaining. The deuces hit was at
$2 denom although most of the previous play was at $1. I guess I can
consider myself lucky to escape with a result of -$940.
The other players next to me (and the other two machines were busy
almost all of the time) hit NOTHING. I would estimate that people
were getting smoked at about -$500/hr. BTW these were all good
players; I noticed very few strategy errors.

THE DRAMATIS PERSONAE

There were a couple of late-20s young guys there who played rapid-
fire $2 with no errors. Their demeanor and attitude absolutely
SCREAMED "pro" (or maybe "semi-pro"). They sat there and roared
along with expressionless faces, almost like robots, studiously
intent on their play. They didn't speak to anyone (I said something
innocuous to one of them and he didn't even bother to reply). The
only reason I don't think these guys were ACTUAL "pros" was the
incredibly stupid things they did:
1. One of them got dealt QJ8 of hearts with some two other cards and
yanked out a strategy chart and minutely scrutinized it for several
seconds before making his play. Now, this is INSANE: the benefit
gained from making the proper play, whatever it was, couldn't have
been more than a few pennies, even at the $2 denomination. It the
time it took to verify the play, he could have played three hands.
And worst of all, if he was being watched, he totally blew any cover
he may have had. (This would be like a blackjack pro holding up the
game for thirty seconds while he tries to decide whether he should
hit 14 vs. a 5 showing with the count at -17 and a minimum bet on
the table.)
2. They both kept getting calls on their cell phones, and it seemed
from what I overheard that they were coordinating the movements of
several people, for whatever reason. I snuck a peek at their call
log screens and ALL the numbers were 702 area code---as in Las
Vegas. (local Tahoe would have been 530 or 775). It seemed that
these boys may have been playing out of a shared bankroll, and
possibly they were tag-teaming the machines.

I wonder what's going on here; are these the same bunch of idiots
that destroyed the Ormsby House monster play a few years ago (God,
what a sweet one that was....$120/hr (sob))? They have NO finesse,
NO sense of needing cover, and NO discretion. They are apparently in
the "quickie greed" mode, that being the "the play is going to go
away anyhow, so let's milk it for all it's worth" mentality that has
slaughtered so many other play across Nevada (Tuscany is another
recent disaster that comes to mind).

I mean, if you WANTED to destroy a play, I can't think of a better
way, offhand, than to do EXACTLY what Team Nerd is doing right now.
To properly evaluate this situation, though, I had to ask the
critical question:

WHAT THE %$#@#$ ARE THESE MACHINES DOING HERE IN THE FIRST PLACE?
There seem to be only two possible explanations:
1. The paytables on these machines are simply the result of an
error. This seems to be a strong possibility, given that every other
game (including the other games offered on those machines) in the
entire casino is CRAP.
2. For some unfathomable reason, Harvey's/Harrah's has decided to
put three machines in the middle of the casino that pay over 100%.
What for? Is it conceivable that the hold on these machines is in
line with others on the floor? Seems kind of unlikely, given that
everyone playing these things (including an older local couple who
snuck in there when Team Nerd was having something to eat) seemed to
know what they were doing.
2A: The unfathomable reason could be that these machines are non-
random and that the so-called "fullpay" Deuces paytables on these
machines are a snare and a delusion.

My results and observations strongly suggest #2A, although I'd be
the first to admit that my sample size is way too small. A priori,
the most likely explanation is #1. So let's continue to observe: if
these machines remain, like diamonds in a sewage canal, over the
next few weeks, and if Team Nerd is allowed to keep playing, then
something REALLY STRANGE is going on. God knows, Team Nerd's
behavior has drawn a big bright neon sign over these machines with
an arrow pointing down, "ADVANTAGE PLAY!!!". Management would have
to be BLIND to allow this play to continue---at a loss rate of $60-
$80/hr per player, so if they don't do anything, they're either
stupid--or very very smart (2A).

I'd LOVE to know what happens next!!!!

#2

rockofjello333 wrote (excerpted):

Well, yes indeedy, it's true: Harvey's (concubine of Harrah's) Lake
Tahoe has (drum roll please) THREE $1/$2 multigamers with FULLPAY
DEUCES WILD. Gasp!

HOW THE MACHINES PLAYED

In a nutshell, like shit. I played about ten hours at 800 hands/hr.
I only hit ONE wild royal the entire time, in my seventh hour of
play.

WHAT THE %$#@#$ ARE THESE MACHINES DOING HERE IN THE FIRST PLACE?
There seem to be only two possible explanations:
1. The paytables on these machines are simply the result of an
error.
2. Is it conceivable that the hold on these machines is in
line with others on the floor? Seems kind of unlikely, given that
everyone playing these things seemed to
know what they were doing.
2A: The unfathomable reason could be that these machines are non-
random and that the so-called "fullpay" Deuces paytables on these
machines are a snare and a delusion.

My results and observations strongly suggest #2A, although I'd be
the first to admit that my sample size is way too small. A priori,
the most likely explanation is #1. So let's continue to observe: if
these machines remain, like diamonds in a sewage canal, over the
next few weeks, and if Team Nerd is allowed to keep playing, then
something REALLY STRANGE is going on. Management would have
to be BLIND to allow this play to continue---at a loss rate of $60-
$80/hr per player, so if they don't do anything, they're either
stupid--or very very smart (2A).

I'm gratified that you leave open possibilities for now beyond "the
machines are gaffed".

What I'll offer up is that I've witnessed comparably strong plays in
even more unlikely venues that were left on the floor far longer than
I'd have dreamed of, given the skilled play they attracted.

In one case I'd have certainly suspected the possibility that the
machines might not be fair were it not that my first six 10+-hour
trips resulted in improbably strong results. I wasn't prepared to
accept that the machines were biased in the player's favor.

As to why these machines might persist on the floor I'd speculate that
it's a combination of the slot managers possibly not being the
brightest bulbs in the pack and/or that they're operating out of past
experience that their players generally have a decent 10-watter
representation as well (even if that seldom proves to be the case when
it comes to very strong plays).

As far as your personal experience, until you've amassed sufficient
data to statistically validate any conclusion with decent confidence
I'm going to be inclined to discount premature conclusions. I speak
from one experience where I suffered subpar results (including a 5
cycle royal drought, and a painful number of 8%+ trip losses)
ultimately leading me to suspect in my heart the game wasn't fair.
That was largely laid to rest when a friend hit 3 royals in a 24-hour
period on about 8 hours play.

Frankly, vp is extraordinarily streaky and at times I suspect, your
evident experience and acumen withstanding, that you haven't come to
terms with that. But, of course, it may well be that your general
suspicions are absolutely on target and other players such as myself
simply don't want to acknowledge that there might be cases where the
machines aren't fair out of a determination that everything needs to
be on the up and up for otherwise it would invalidate our judgement in
playing.

For that matter, given the frequency with which you suspect machines
of not being fair, I continue to question why you would continue to
risk good money is such an environment (even if your overall results
have been decent to date).

- Harry

#3

As to why these machines might persist on the floor I'd speculate that
it's a combination of the slot managers possibly not being the
brightest bulbs in the pack and/or that they're operating out of past
experience that their players generally have a decent 10-watter
representation as well (even if that seldom proves to be the case when
it comes to very strong plays).

I 'm going to offer a high tech proposal on why these machines are
around...i.e. for NOW. Modern electronics , built in MIBS, and fibre
communications with an element manager, allow slot bosses to draw graphs and
alert on real time figures of merit such as "net profit", "hold". In the
past they use to have a clerk go around and record the information
manually - Do you see that any more ? no , only at the sawdust places. They
can alert, real time, on any condition such as "machine is now losing
money", "machine has lost $10,000 YTD", etc. It's quite possible they fully
expect to yank those machines , say 20% away from the maximum profit point.
They simply say "thanks pro's for making us rich" and put a sign up that
says the machines will be shut down in 30 minutes. The old bait and switch
works again! Had the pros started to win right away, they would only last 1
day.

regards...Tom

#4

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rockofjello333" <rockofjello333@y...>
wrote:

Well, yes indeedy, it's true: Harvey's (concubine of Harrah's) Lake
Tahoe has (drum roll please) THREE $1/$2 multigamers with FULLPAY
DEUCES WILD. Gasp! This in a casino where you can't even find 9/6
JOB, or anything else decent for that matter (best game I found was
9/6 DDB).

This is a FANTASTIC play on the face of it, even though Harrah's
Totallly Worthless slot club only doles out a paltry 0.1% comps to
feelthy steenkin' VP players. So I decided to check it out...

I avoided commenting on this situation because of the crap storm it
brought on last time, but since it is already out here my recent
observations and results differ somewhat.

HOW THE MACHINES PLAYED

In a nutshell, like shit. I played about ten hours at 800 hands/hr.
I only hit ONE wild royal the entire time, in my seventh hour of
play. No royals, and the only reprieve from a $3000 bloodbath was
hitting deuces with $60 in credits remaining. The deuces hit was at
$2 denom although most of the previous play was at $1. I guess I

can

consider myself lucky to escape with a result of -$940.
The other players next to me (and the other two machines were busy
almost all of the time) hit NOTHING. I would estimate that people
were getting smoked at about -$500/hr. BTW these were all good
players; I noticed very few strategy errors.

I played roughly 40K in $1 action over 2 days. I had no time to
practice or study immediately prior to this trip and both NSUD and
FPDW are new enough games to me that I need serious preparation if I
want to play accurately. Let's just say, I'm sure my accuracy bit
the big one. I hit two sets of ducks and ended up +$1000. The
machines seemed like every other VP machine I've played --Streaky.

THE DRAMATIS PERSONAE

There were a couple of late-20s young guys there who played rapid-
fire $2 with no errors. Their demeanor and attitude absolutely
SCREAMED "pro" (or maybe "semi-pro"). They sat there and roared
along with expressionless faces, almost like robots, studiously
intent on their play. They didn't speak to anyone (I said something
innocuous to one of them and he didn't even bother to reply). The
only reason I don't think these guys were ACTUAL "pros" was the
incredibly stupid things they did:
1. One of them got dealt QJ8 of hearts with some two other cards

and

yanked out a strategy chart and minutely scrutinized it for several
seconds before making his play. Now, this is INSANE: the benefit
gained from making the proper play, whatever it was, couldn't have
been more than a few pennies, even at the $2 denomination. It the
time it took to verify the play, he could have played three hands.
And worst of all, if he was being watched, he totally blew any

cover

he may have had. (This would be like a blackjack pro holding up the
game for thirty seconds while he tries to decide whether he should
hit 14 vs. a 5 showing with the count at -17 and a minimum bet on
the table.)
2. They both kept getting calls on their cell phones, and it seemed
from what I overheard that they were coordinating the movements of
several people, for whatever reason. I snuck a peek at their call
log screens and ALL the numbers were 702 area code---as in Las
Vegas. (local Tahoe would have been 530 or 775). It seemed that
these boys may have been playing out of a shared bankroll, and
possibly they were tag-teaming the machines.

I wonder what's going on here; are these the same bunch of idiots
that destroyed the Ormsby House monster play a few years ago (God,
what a sweet one that was....$120/hr (sob))? They have NO finesse,
NO sense of needing cover, and NO discretion. They are apparently

in

the "quickie greed" mode, that being the "the play is going to go
away anyhow, so let's milk it for all it's worth" mentality that

has

slaughtered so many other play across Nevada (Tuscany is another
recent disaster that comes to mind).

I mean, if you WANTED to destroy a play, I can't think of a better
way, offhand, than to do EXACTLY what Team Nerd is doing right now.
To properly evaluate this situation, though, I had to ask the
critical question:

I saw talented and fast $2 play. As to how talented, my own sorry
state of VP cognizance did not allow me to guage. The machines were
often getting more traffic than other $ machines in the area, but
they were not being obviously team played or monopolized. I even saw
a couple of folks choosing the 8/5 Bonus option on the machines.
Most players were friendly and congratulated each other on our
victories and engaged in other pleasantries, but video poker often
does not lend itself to socializing. Some of the good $2 players I
saw seemed to be in for a poker tournament. I did not notice anyone
pulling out a strategy chart, including myself, though the one I had
was burning a hole in my pocket and I sorely wanted to consult it on
numerous occasions.

WHAT THE %$#@#$ ARE THESE MACHINES DOING HERE IN THE FIRST PLACE?
There seem to be only two possible explanations:
1. The paytables on these machines are simply the result of an
error. This seems to be a strong possibility, given that every

other

game (including the other games offered on those machines) in the
entire casino is CRAP.
2. For some unfathomable reason, Harvey's/Harrah's has decided to
put three machines in the middle of the casino that pay over 100%.
What for? Is it conceivable that the hold on these machines is in
line with others on the floor? Seems kind of unlikely, given that
everyone playing these things (including an older local couple who
snuck in there when Team Nerd was having something to eat) seemed

to

know what they were doing.
2A: The unfathomable reason could be that these machines are non-
random and that the so-called "fullpay" Deuces paytables on these
machines are a snare and a delusion.

My results and observations strongly suggest #2A, although I'd be
the first to admit that my sample size is way too small. A priori,
the most likely explanation is #1. So let's continue to observe: if
these machines remain, like diamonds in a sewage canal, over the
next few weeks, and if Team Nerd is allowed to keep playing, then
something REALLY STRANGE is going on. God knows, Team Nerd's
behavior has drawn a big bright neon sign over these machines with
an arrow pointing down, "ADVANTAGE PLAY!!!". Management would have
to be BLIND to allow this play to continue---at a loss rate of $60-
$80/hr per player, so if they don't do anything, they're either
stupid--or very very smart (2A).

I'd LOVE to know what happens next!!!!

These machines have been there for some time. They may disappear
tomorrow. One never knows, but I find it hard to believe that this
casino has inadvertantly put FPDW on the floor. I did enjoy playing
them and hope they remain.

#5

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:

For that matter, given the frequency with which you suspect

machines

of not being fair, I continue to question why you would continue to
risk good money is such an environment (even if your overall

results

have been decent to date).

Well, that's the key: my results have still been "decent" (positive,
that is). I do drop a play rather quickly if I don't like the way a
given machine or set of machines is playing; I know that this may
simply be unjustified paranoia that only costs me money in the long
run (by causing me to abandon a profitable play), but since my "drop
a play" threshold is in the -$2000-3000 range, I feel that I've
given the play in question a reasonable shot.

I am CERTAIN that the machines IGT and all the others, sold IN
Nevada as well as outside the state, can easily be changed to a "non-
random" mode with a fixed payout percentage (regardless of how the
machine is played). This would make these machines attractive to
casinos in jurisdictions where randomness is not mandated
(Caribbean; cruise ships; Indian casinos, etc.). I just don't know
how much actual risk a given Nevada casino actually would (or does)
run, to change some or all of their machines to "non-random" mode.
From what I can see, the efforts of the Gaming Control Board are
nothing for the casinos to be afraid of.

The upshot is that I don't play "for a living" any more; I rely on
other sources of income. But that doesn't mean I particularly want
to LOSE, either. My goals are much more modest now: to break even,
and accumulate some food comps and other goodies along the way.
Given the current VP environment, that may be all that's really
possible anyway.