Isn't the calculation of both EV and variance on Multistrike
contingent on the frequency of the Free Ride? And since we have NO WAY
of knowing what that has been set to on a particular machine, do we
simply assume that the FR appears as a function of the "inherent" EV
of the game, i.e., somewhat more often in 9/7 DB than in 16/10 NSUD,
and so forth? Or can the operator set the FR frequency to anything he
chooses, independent of the paytable? This, of course, would mean that
a "fullpay" schedule might well be anything but that...
The basic problem with calculating Multistrike variance/EV
The free ride frequency numbers were given to me by Larry DeMar. If you
check the free ride frequency of Joker 2/pr you will see that the free ride
frequency was changed for N.J. The free ride frequency change reduced the
return from 100% to 99.99%.
5-card
···
----- Original Message -----
From: "mkl54321" <mkl54321@yahoo.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, November 19, 2003 1:16 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] The basic problem with calculating Multistrike variance/EV
Isn't the calculation of both EV and variance on Multistrike
contingent on the frequency of the Free Ride? And since we have NO WAY
of knowing what that has been set to on a particular machine, do we
simply assume that the FR appears as a function of the "inherent" EV
of the game, i.e., somewhat more often in 9/7 DB than in 16/10 NSUD,
and so forth? Or can the operator set the FR frequency to anything he
chooses, independent of the paytable? This, of course, would mean that
a "fullpay" schedule might well be anything but that...vpFREE Links: http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/VP/Links.htm
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Isn't the calculation of both EV and variance on Multistrike
contingent on the frequency of the Free Ride? And since we have NO
WAY
of knowing what that has been set to on a particular machine, do we
simply assume that the FR appears as a function of the "inherent" EV
of the game, i.e., somewhat more often in 9/7 DB than in 16/10 NSUD,
and so forth? Or can the operator set the FR frequency to anything
he
chooses, independent of the paytable? This, of course, would mean
that
a "fullpay" schedule might well be anything but that...
Free Ride Frequencies are constant from paytable to paytable, and are
published on the help screen of the game.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mkl54321" <mkl54321@y...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tooncesthecatwhocoulddriveacar"
<tooncessnl@h...> wrote:
> Isn't the calculation of both EV and variance on Multistrike
> contingent on the frequency of the Free Ride? And since we have NO
WAY
> of knowing what that has been set to on a particular machine, do we
> simply assume that the FR appears as a function of the "inherent" EV
> of the game, i.e., somewhat more often in 9/7 DB than in 16/10 NSUD,
> and so forth? Or can the operator set the FR frequency to anything
he
> chooses, independent of the paytable? This, of course, would mean
that
> a "fullpay" schedule might well be anything but that...Free Ride Frequencies are constant from paytable to paytable, and are
published on the help screen of the game.
I know that's supposed to be the case, but I've run across
Multistrikes in at least two different places where the help screen
didn't mention the exact frequency.
Even in the cases where a paytable indeed purports to have a fixed
occurence of Free Rides, do we also know that the quoted figure is
accurate? Or is it simply a factory setting, adjustable by the
operator? Furthermore, does the FR symbol appear in a truly random
fashion, or is there a bias toward its appearance in hands that are
already winners?
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mkl54321" <mkl54321@y...> wrote:
The free ride frequency numbers were given to me by Larry DeMar. If
you check the free ride frequency of Joker 2/pr you will see that the
free ride frequency was changed for N.J. The free ride frequency
change reduced the return from 100% to 99.99%.
5-card
This is a repeat. I posted this the first time more than an hour
ago.
Isn't the calculation of both EV and variance on Multistrike
contingent on the frequency of the Free Ride? And since we have NO
WAY
of knowing what that has been set to on a particular machine, do we
simply assume that the FR appears as a function of the "inherent" EV
of the game, i.e., somewhat more often in 9/7 DB than in 16/10 NSUD,
and so forth? Or can the operator set the FR frequency to anything
he
chooses, independent of the paytable? This, of course, would mean
that
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mkl54321" <mkl54321@y...> wrote:
a "fullpay" schedule might well be anything but that...
mkl54321 wrote:
I know that's supposed to be the case, but I've run across
Multistrikes in at least two different places where the help screen
didn't mention the exact frequency.
That would be surprising since the machines are "standard".
Even in the cases where a paytable indeed purports to have a fixed
occurence of Free Rides, do we also know that the quoted figure is
accurate? Or is it simply a factory setting, adjustable by the
operator? Furthermore, does the FR symbol appear in a truly random
fashion, or is there a bias toward its appearance in hands that are
already winners?
If I grasp what I have read (much of this being info provided by the
game developer, Larry DeMar, who posts here and elsewhere) then the
stated Free Ride frequencies are accurate and cannot be adjusted by
the casino. The casino can simply select the paytables which they
wish to feature on the machines - for each paytable there's a fixed
set of Free Ride frequencies.
I'm also led to understand that the Free Ride occurance is a random
event that is independent of the dealt cards.
- Harry
se2808 (5-card) wrote:
The free ride frequency numbers were given to me by Larry DeMar. If
you check the free ride frequency of Joker 2/pr you will see that
the free ride frequency was changed for N.J. The free ride frequency
change reduced the return from 100% to 99.99%.
5-card
This is a bit of a curiosity. I assume that this change was made to
comply with a "no 100%+" return restriction in the NJ statutes.
I've heard that there's such a statute, but the presence of a $1 10/7
DB machine at Trump Plaza, the short-term appearance of AA at Caesars
and Borgata, and other 10/7 DB games once at Bally's and Sands led me
to believe that such a clause was a myth (or at least was generally
interpreted in terms of a machine's effective hold rather than
theoretical).
In any case, while the paytable/FR frequencies may be uniquely offered
to NJ operators, I'd think it likely that it has a snowball's chance
in hell of ever being selected by an AC casino.
(Addressing the concern raised by mk#'s, the adjusted Free Ride
frequencies should be stated within the games help screens should that
paytable actually appear.)
- Harry
This is a bit of a curiosity. I assume that this change was made to
comply with a "no 100%+" return restriction in the NJ statutes.I've heard that there's such a statute, but the presence of a $1
10/7
DB machine at Trump Plaza, the short-term appearance of AA at
Caesars
and Borgata, and other 10/7 DB games once at Bally's and Sands led
me
to believe that such a clause was a myth (or at least was generally
interpreted in terms of a machine's effective hold rather than
theoretical).
The clause is not a myth, at least not in some juristictions, like
Illinois. The (somewhat silly) reason the rules are in there is that
most states tax the "gross win" of the casino. If a single machine
in the casino (for example, a slot machine) was secretly set to 105%,
the casino owners could pay a shill to play that machine off the
books, whose purpose would be to "drain down" the house win so that
they could skim some of the profits and not pay tax on them. Given
the history of casino skimming in mobster-owned Vegas, new casino
juristictions play it safe by putting this rule in.
On the other hand, just because the rule is there, there has been
lots of times that 100% games have seeped through in the past. It is
only within the last 8 years or so that the optimal return
percentages were available to casino slot management (after programs
like BDPW became mainstream). Most of the time, management was only
aware of the effective return. Occasionally other machines slipped
through accidentally. Other games were pretty well known to pay over
100% optimally, like the Empress 10/7 progressives. For years the
ownership argued that the machines did not return over 100%. In
reality, they kept the machines in place because they were extremely
popular. When they finally had a good excuse to remove the machines
(when they became a barge), they used the law as their scapegoat.
We lost $12,000 in 3 long days at 9/6 $1 MS recently.
···
____________________
Jean $cott - "The Frugal Gambler"
MORE FRUGAL GAMBLING can now
be ordered, autographed, at
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
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The horror!
If you don't mind my asking, where were you playing? Most of the MS
games I've seen top out at .25 denoms.
Have you any idea of how many hands/hr you were getting (counting a
"hand", of course, as an initial bottom-line dealt hand no matter how
long it took to resolve that particular set of deals)?
Also, have you seen any other completely fullpay Multistrike machines
in Vegas like the ones I reported at the Peppermill in Reno recently?
One wonders just how far off the scope your loss is, given that you
are wagering $20/deal (conservatively: about $2500/hr). A long run of
can't-get-off-the-bottom-line hands (which happens all too often)
would be a horribly rapid -$140 or so, in about a minute.
An interesting thought is that in Multistrike, when you are losing,
you are putting money through the machine MUCH faster than when you
are winning. This makes losing streaks especially swift and bloody. I
wouldn't be surprised if, when someone finally does the volatility
calcs (it won't be me!), this game turns out to be worse, say, than $5 DB.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@f...> wrote:
We lost $12,000 in 3 long days at 9/6 $1 MS recently.
<<> We lost $12,000 in 3 long days at 9/6 $1 MS recently.
<<The horror!
If you don't mind my asking, where were you playing? Most of the MS
games I've seen top out at .25 denoms.>>
This was at Caesars. I can't find my records right now - just got home from a week away from my computer and my office is in shambles. But I think together we played about 25 hours. You are right about playing much faster when you can't get off the bottom line - or progress anywhere very often.
We just love to play them - but they are brutal. The problem with Caesars is that even with a tournament or drawing equity (that's the only time we play them) we only get a bit over 100%. We won't do that very often - we like a bigger edge - and will limit our play to what we can afford to lose. I don't know of any really good pay schedules in Vegas, like at the Peppermill.
···
____________________
Jean $cott - "The Frugal Gambler"
MORE FRUGAL GAMBLING can now
be ordered, autographed, at
http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.538 / Virus Database: 333 - Release Date: 11/10/2003
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I believe that all the jurisdictions that ban 100%plus games do allow
progressives as long as they have an overall return of less than
100%. I suppose a progressive with a base game that returned less
than 100% at reset but with a meter rate so high that the overall
return was over 100% would be banned too.
With respect to the recent appearance (and disappearance) of AA at
Caesars AC and Borgata, the regulations apparently are interpreted to
apply to the average of all the games on a multi-game machine. So AA
was legal but apparently appeared to the casinos to be unprofitable -
or, more likely, just less profitable than the alternatives.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "tooncesthecatwhocoulddriveacar"
<tooncessnl@h...> wrote:
>
> This is a bit of a curiosity. I assume that this change was made
to
> comply with a "no 100%+" return restriction in the NJ statutes.
>
> I've heard that there's such a statute, but the presence of a $1
10/7
> DB machine at Trump Plaza, the short-term appearance of AA at
Caesars
> and Borgata, and other 10/7 DB games once at Bally's and Sands
led
me
> to believe that such a clause was a myth (or at least was
generally
> interpreted in terms of a machine's effective hold rather than
> theoretical).The clause is not a myth, at least not in some juristictions, like
Illinois. The (somewhat silly) reason the rules are in there is
that
most states tax the "gross win" of the casino. If a single machine
in the casino (for example, a slot machine) was secretly set to
105%,
the casino owners could pay a shill to play that machine off the
books, whose purpose would be to "drain down" the house win so that
they could skim some of the profits and not pay tax on them. Given
the history of casino skimming in mobster-owned Vegas, new casino
juristictions play it safe by putting this rule in.On the other hand, just because the rule is there, there has been
lots of times that 100% games have seeped through in the past. It
is
only within the last 8 years or so that the optimal return
percentages were available to casino slot management (after
programs
like BDPW became mainstream). Most of the time, management was
only
aware of the effective return. Occasionally other machines slipped
through accidentally. Other games were pretty well known to pay
over
100% optimally, like the Empress 10/7 progressives. For years the
ownership argued that the machines did not return over 100%. In
reality, they kept the machines in place because they were
extremely
popular. When they finally had a good excuse to remove the
machines
···
(when they became a barge), they used the law as their scapegoat.