on saturday night we were playing 5 play ... held 4 cards to a straight and up jumped the 8 of diamonds on 4 of the 5 lines. ... not being mathematicians we were wondering what the odds of that happening were
and, incidentally, not 10 mins later, up jumped a dealt royal on 5 play ... the 4th time my wife has been dealt a royal on a multi line machine
thanx
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With an "honest machine"
the chance of getting the 8 of diamonds on at least 4 of 5 lines is one chance in 1485172.
-----Original Message-----
From: bo bonita <borath_99@yahoo.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Mon, Mar 7, 2011 10:13 am
Subject: [vpFREE] the 8 of diamonds
on saturday night we were playing 5 play ... held 4 cards to a straight and up jumped the 8 of diamonds on 4 of the 5 lines. ... not being mathematicians we were wondering what the odds of that happening were
and, incidentally, not 10 mins later, up jumped a dealt royal on 5 play ... the 4th time my wife has been dealt a royal on a multi line machine
thanx
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Your calculation does not consider that the draw can't include the 5
dealt cards -- the main denominator should be 47 instead of 52.
The odds of drawing the 8 of diamonds (or any other specific card) on
at least 4 out of 5 lines is 1 in 992835 plus a fraction.
On Mon, Mar 7, 2011 at 8:07 AM, <Nordo123@aol.com> wrote:
With an "honest machine" the chance of getting the 8 of diamonds on at
least 4 of 5 lines is one chance in 1485172.
I am not mathematically inclined - so I was wondering if anyone could tell me:
how high would a $1 progressive have to be to justify playing for a dealt royal? (or is there a viable answer to this question?)
Valerie
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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Do you mean there is a special win category for "dealt royal" and you want
to know what the additional payback on that would be?
The odds of a dealt royal are 52 choose 5 divided by 4 (since there are 4
ways to get a royal - one for each suit). This is 649,740. Assuming a 5 coin
bet, every $1,000 in *dealt* royal payout adds an additional 0.03% - that is
(1/649740) * (1000/5)
- to the final payback, if I worked my numbers correctly. Additional payback
is calculated generally by probability of the event times the payback (in
this case, it must be adjusted for the fact that you place a 5 coin wager to
win the progressive).
Hope this helps.
On Mon, Mar 7, 2011 at 1:10 PM, Valerie Pollard
I am not mathematically inclined - so I was wondering if anyone could tell
me:
how high would a $1 progressive have to be to justify playing for a dealt
royal? (or is there a viable answer to this question?)
Hi Jason,
"Do you mean there is a special win category for "dealt royal" and you want
to know what the additional payback on that would be?"
What I am talking about is a situation where there is a progressive that can only be hit by a dealt royal - usually they seem to be on multiple line machines. (There are a few of them at Red Rock). So my question is: how high would the progressive have to be to make the EV good enough to justify playing for that jackpot?
(if that makes sense)
Valerie
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you are right. My mistake.
-----Original Message-----
From: Peter M. <midnight1626@gmail.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Mon, Mar 7, 2011 3:01 pm
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] the 8 of diamonds
On Mon, Mar 7, 2011 at 8:07 AM, <Nordo123@aol.com> wrote:
With an "honest machine" the chance of getting the 8 of diamonds on at
least 4 of 5 lines is one chance in 1485172.
Your calculation does not consider that the draw can't include the 5
dealt cards -- the main denominator should be 47 instead of 52.
The odds of drawing the 8 of diamonds (or any other specific card) on
at least 4 out of 5 lines is 1 in 992835 plus a fraction.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Valerie - a dealt royal in video poker occurs every 649740 deals. If all you're playing for is a dealt royal a payout of $3248700
for $5 would be fair.
-----Original Message-----
From: Valerie Pollard <vpollard@socal.rr.com>
To: vpFREE <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Mon, Mar 7, 2011 4:11 pm
Subject: [vpFREE] Question re odds & progressives
I am not mathematically inclined - so I was wondering if anyone could tell me:
how high would a $1 progressive have to be to justify playing for a dealt royal? (or is there a viable answer to this question?)
Valerie
__________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 5934 (20110307) __________
The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Valerie - a dealt royal in video poker occurs every 649740 deals. If all you're playing for is a dealt royal a payout of $3248700
for $5 would be fair.
The above would be true if ALL other hands were losers.
Assumming no progressive for the undealt royal. Each $3248.70 (over the base $4,000) adds 0.1% to the EV of the base game. Thus you need to know what the normal value of the base game is. Ex: If the base game is 9-6 DDB that is a 98.98% game with a $4,000 royal. If it pays a bonus on the dealt royal, the total value of the dealt royal would have to be about $37136 to make it a 100% game. That does not count tax considerations. This site or vpgenius.com etc. lists the value of many games. I am assumming you do not have vp software like Video Poker for winners, Frugal Video Poker etc. that do these calculations.
We need more information to properly analyze this play. We need the payscale of the base game. By the base game I mean is it 9/6 Jacks, 8/5 Bonus Poker, 9/6 Double Double?, etc. About all I can do with the information on hand is create a hypothetical.
First of all this type of play is not my cup of tea (but it doesn't mean it's not yours). It's a mega long term play. Back when I played very heavily I flopped maybe one or two royals a year.
If the game were dollar triple play 8/5 Bonus Poker with the regular royal paying 800 for 1, here's what you would be looking at. You got a base game of 99.17%. 100 minus 99.17 = .83%. That's how far from the breakeven point we are.
Here's how we find the breakeven point. You're betting $15 per deal, chance of the flopped royal is 649,740, the deficit is .83%. So we multiply 15 X 649,740 X .0083 which = $80,893.
But that's not the final number. A flopped royal in this game would pay $12,000 anyway. And that $12,000 is accounted for in the base game. So we have to add $12,000 plus $80,893 which = $92,893. About every $10,000 above that number would add .1% to the play.
This play has a lot of problems. Best I remember I could get out about 800 deals per hour on a triple play. That would mean I could expect a payday about every 812 hours of play. And that's an average. It doesn't account for variance. You also better bring a mega bankroll to this mega long term play. And what are you gonna do when someone else flops the royal? Wait for it to go back up?
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Valerie Pollard" <vpollard@...> wrote:
What I am talking about is a situation where there is a progressive >that can only be hit by a dealt royal - usually they seem to be on >multiple line machines. (There are a few of them at Red Rock). So my >question is: how high would the progressive have to be to make the EV >good enough to justify playing for that jackpot? (if that makes sense)
Valerie
Thanks Mickey,
I guess the way I look at it is thusly: if I like playing triple play games (which I do) then I might as well play one with a possible progressive jackpot (if there's one available) for a dealt royal even if the odds of getting it are very difficult. I wouldn't go searching it out though.
Red Rock has some by the craps tables in 25cent, 50cent and $1 denominations, last year I remember the $1 was up to $80,000. Adds some excitement anyway.
Valerie
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