vpFREE2 Forums

Thanks, I'm back

To all my friends here, including former administrator Tom:

Thanks to your support, the administrator has invited me to return to
this forum and has assured me that the rules will be enforced
uniformly. I'm delighted to have so many friends here, and I want to
take this opportunity clarify just who I am.

Always an objective realist, I'm one of the very few in this business
who uses his/her real name. I also have a tendency toward a sarcastic
form of humor, which has sometimes provoked jealous persons to dig
deep, and if necessary far into the past, to find fault with me. I
apologize for allowing myself to be drawn into pointless arguments,
and I will try harder to follow the philosophy of Pythagoras: "Rest
satisfied with doing well, and leave others to talk of you as they
please."

Now my views on video poker. I have never recommended short coin play
or any other changes in tactics or strategy in response to the way a
machine has been paying. In the "Subjective Observation" that was
cited to claim that I did, my stated conclusion was that doing so
would only reduce the expected return. I fail to see how anyone could
interpret this as recommending one-coin play.

For a purely recreational player who doesn't want to bet more than 25
cents per play, I do recommend playing one quarter on a full pay game
rather than five nickels on a short pay game. This and all of my
recommendations are based upon solid mathematics for the best ER.

Many perceived anomalies have been reported by my readers and
discussed in my publications. In some cases, I have even kept track
of events during my own play and recorded statistics that seem to
support the existence of an anomaly. I have also stated, however,
that whether or not the anomaly existed, it did not seem to affect
the game's return. That is why those writings appear in a booklet
with a disclaimer that it is to be read for entertainment only. I
have never recommended that a player should change strategy because
of a perceived anomaly.

Beginning with my first video poker publications in 1991, I have
often stated that "luck" exists only in the past tense. I have also
frequently stated that there is no such thing as a "hot" or "cold"
machine (at least not in Nevada or other well regulated gambling
area). The probabilities on the next play are the same regardless of
the player's or the machine's history.

I have always advocated using an optimized strategy rather than
attempting perfect play. My definition of an optimum strategy is that
which, for you, will yield the greatest expected win rate. For most
players, this means few, if any, penalty card considerations. Skip
Hughes has covered this well in this forum, and I go into this quite
extensively in two articles in the next issue of my newsletter.

I am happy to be back, and again thank my many friends for your support.

Dan

···

--
Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com

"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Glad to see you haven't left. The fact of the matter is, that anyone
who has a viewpoint on anything, including "water is wet", or "Las
Vegas is hot in the summer", and states that viewpoint cogently,
will find that there's someone who is ready to disagree with him,
and frequently with less cogent arguments, and considerably less
grace. The cosmic solution would be a giant "MUTE" button that would
silence those persons for some appropriate length of time (several
hundred years), or perhaps a giant VP machine that falls from the
sky and crushes them, like the beer can in that Milwaukee's Best
commercial. Until such time as that happens, though, such people are
best simply ignored. Don't feel as if you have to be constantly
apologizing to the mental midgets of this world.

In passing, I'd like to address one thing you said about short-coin
play. You mentioned that single-coin quarter play is better than
full-coin nickel play with a worse paytable. Well, this isn't
TOTALLY true. In a game with, say, a 45,000 hand royal cycle, the
royal is about 1.8% of the total payback, and the downgrading of the
royal payback from 800 to 250 units is a loss of 68% of that
payback, for a loss of around 1.3% in EV. If the paytable downgrade
is a mild one, the full-coin lower denom may still be a better bet.
For instance, a removal of one unit from the straight, flush, or
full house in JOB/DB games results in a loss in EV of 1.1%. This is
clearly better than the single-coin royal EV loss.

So for instance, it would be better to play 8/6 full-coin nickel JOB
than single-coin .25 9/6. It would be better to play nickel full-
coin NSUD than .25 FPDW. And so forth. I realize that the hit you
take when moving down to nickels is usually much worse than the
situations I've stated, but such situations can still be found at
Fiesta Rancho, Arizona Charlies, and a few other places. Also, this
situation is true when comparing full-coin quarter play and single-
coin dollars; full-coin .25 9/7 DB is better than single coin 10/7
$1 DB.

Have a royal Xmas!!

What do you mean, "Las Vegas is hot in the summertime"???

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
quincy4995
Sent: Wednesday, December 21, 2005 2:30 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Thanks, I'm back

Glad to see you haven't left. The fact of the matter is, that anyone
who has a viewpoint on anything, including "water is wet", or "Las
Vegas is hot in the summer",

Re : Your comments on short coin play...
You are correct but you are leaving out an important factor. Playing short coin on the better paying machine
reduces the volatility significantly, because now the royal is not as significant a factor.
I also believe that the short coin player has a main objective of lasting longer, and they will accomplish this on the
better paying 1 coin machine. I am referring here to where you compare a 1.1 versus a 1.3 payoff difference.
In 9/6 jacks or better the variance drops from 19 down to about 5.

Regards
A.P.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: quincy4995
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Wednesday, December 21, 2005 3:29 AM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Thanks, I'm back

  In passing, I'd like to address one thing you said about short-coin
  play. You mentioned that single-coin quarter play is better than
  full-coin nickel play with a worse paytable. Well, this isn't
  TOTALLY true. In a game with, say, a 45,000 hand royal cycle, the
  royal is about 1.8% of the total payback, and the downgrading of the
  royal payback from 800 to 250 units is a loss of 68% of that
  payback, for a loss of around 1.3% in EV. If the paytable downgrade
  is a mild one, the full-coin lower denom may still be a better bet.
  For instance, a removal of one unit from the straight, flush, or
  full house in JOB/DB games results in a loss in EV of 1.1%. This is
  clearly better than the single-coin royal EV loss.

  So for instance, it would be better to play 8/6 full-coin nickel JOB
  than single-coin .25 9/6. It would be better to play nickel full-
  coin NSUD than .25 FPDW. And so forth. I realize that the hit you
  take when moving down to nickels is usually much worse than the
  situations I've stated, but such situations can still be found at
  Fiesta Rancho, Arizona Charlies, and a few other places. Also, this
  situation is true when comparing full-coin quarter play and single-
  coin dollars; full-coin .25 9/7 DB is better than single coin 10/7
  $1 DB.

  Have a royal Xmas!!

  vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

  SPONSORED LINKS Online gambling Outdoor recreation Recreation software
        Gambling

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

when playing short coin (not that I would ever commit this sin)
strategy would be modified to maximize EV, correct? and this is what
lowers your volatility?

···

On 12/24/05, Albert Pearson <a-p@sympatico.ca> wrote:

Re : Your comments on short coin play...
You are correct but you are leaving out an important factor. Playing short coin on the better paying machine
reduces the volatility significantly, because now the royal is not as significant a factor.
I also believe that the short coin player has a main objective of lasting longer, and they will accomplish this on the
better paying 1 coin machine. I am referring here to where you compare a 1.1 versus a 1.3 payoff difference.
In 9/6 jacks or better the variance drops from 19 down to about 5.

Regards
A.P.
  ----- Original Message -----
  From: quincy4995
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Wednesday, December 21, 2005 3:29 AM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Thanks, I'm back

  In passing, I'd like to address one thing you said about short-coin
  play. You mentioned that single-coin quarter play is better than
  full-coin nickel play with a worse paytable. Well, this isn't
  TOTALLY true. In a game with, say, a 45,000 hand royal cycle, the
  royal is about 1.8% of the total payback, and the downgrading of the
  royal payback from 800 to 250 units is a loss of 68% of that
  payback, for a loss of around 1.3% in EV. If the paytable downgrade
  is a mild one, the full-coin lower denom may still be a better bet.
  For instance, a removal of one unit from the straight, flush, or
  full house in JOB/DB games results in a loss in EV of 1.1%. This is
  clearly better than the single-coin royal EV loss.

  So for instance, it would be better to play 8/6 full-coin nickel JOB
  than single-coin .25 9/6. It would be better to play nickel full-
  coin NSUD than .25 FPDW. And so forth. I realize that the hit you
  take when moving down to nickels is usually much worse than the
  situations I've stated, but such situations can still be found at
  Fiesta Rancho, Arizona Charlies, and a few other places. Also, this
  situation is true when comparing full-coin quarter play and single-
  coin dollars; full-coin .25 9/7 DB is better than single coin 10/7
  $1 DB.

  Have a royal Xmas!!

  vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

  SPONSORED LINKS Online gambling Outdoor recreation Recreation software
        Gambling

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS

    a.. Visit your group "vpFREE" on the web.

    b.. To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
     vpFREE-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

    c.. Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

Yes I believe that modifying strategy would improve your results, but I don't think it is what lowers your volatility.
Your volatility is lowered because the longshot Royal, instead of being worth %2 of your total is only worth about
%0.5, therefore with proper play your return is equalized over a much smaller range.
I think looking at something like Pick-em where the Royal is worth a similar low percentage of total return and also
has a much lower volatility, would be a good comparison.
I don't advocate short coin play, but it is sometimes a much better option for the player with limited funds than playing
full coin lower denomination games with bad paytables.
My own approach to this situation is to play full coin in at the higher limit for a shorter period of time, if I win great, if I lose I go home
early.

Regards
A.P.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: Eric
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Sunday, December 25, 2005 12:09 AM
  Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Thanks, I'm back

  when playing short coin (not that I would ever commit this sin)
  strategy would be modified to maximize EV, correct? and this is what
  lowers your volatility?

  On 12/24/05, Albert Pearson <a-p@sympatico.ca> wrote:
  > Re : Your comments on short coin play...
  > You are correct but you are leaving out an important factor. Playing short coin on the better paying machine
  > reduces the volatility significantly, because now the royal is not as significant a factor.
  > I also believe that the short coin player has a main objective of lasting longer, and they will accomplish this on the
  > better paying 1 coin machine. I am referring here to where you compare a 1.1 versus a 1.3 payoff difference.
  > In 9/6 jacks or better the variance drops from 19 down to about 5.
  >
  > Regards
  > A.P.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]