I am going to Terrible's next month and I would appreciate some help
in explaining their promotions to me.
1.For the "Double Royal" promotion, do they change the paytables on
the machines (and increase the variance?) Or do they just simply pay
twice as much if one hits a royal?
2. Also the 5X points promotion is it good on any machine there, or
do they exclude certain machines like they do for their double royals?
Thanks in advance for all of your help.
Shari
Shari;
Be sure to bring your mask, this casino has to have to poorest air
movers in Las Vegas. The smoke is so thick you could cut it with a
knife.
Good luck on your trip, don't pass up the bingo room, the staff
there are super!
Best Regrards
Obid
eharas wrote:
I am going to Terrible's next month and I would appreciate some help
in explaining their promotions to me.
1.For the "Double Royal" promotion, do they change the paytables on the machines (and increase the variance?) Or do they just simply pay
twice as much if one hits a royal?
In a sense, variance is not affected by how the paytables are "set" and is not something that is "set" anywhere in the machine if it is truly random. Rather, it is the statistical result of the frequency of hands, which is dependent upon the strategy you use, and what you are paid. I know that sounds a bit like a contradiction, but what I'm saying is that is you use correct strategy for the game, adjusted for the increased value of the Royal -- regardless of whether the increase is shown on the paytable or if you just happen to know it an keep it in your mind -- then the variance will be the same. Of course, the difference won't show up in either WinPoker or FrugalVP unless you input the higher value, but you could certain keep the regular paytable load in either game, then take the resulting details from those screens after using the modified strategy that is appropriate for a double Royal, and then double the values of the Royal and do the math and you will find that the variance should come out identically the same.
2. Also the 5X points promotion is it good on any machine there, or
do they exclude certain machines like they do for their double royals?
I don't know about that, Shari.
Thanks in advance for all of your help.
Shari
The best of luck next month at Terribles ... and everywhere else. Here's hoping that you knock 'em dead.
Cheers.
Bill Velek
The "double royal" promotion at Terrible's:
They pay double for all royals through 50c machines. From $1 up they just pay an extra $2000 for the royal. The paytables are not changed - it is just a bonus.
Main thing to know - they will not pay the bonus on 9/6 JoB machines. However, 5x points are given on all machines.
____________________
Jean $¢ott - The Frugal Gambler
Pre-pub sale on for January release of
"Tax Help for the Frugal Gambler"
at http://www.FrugalGambler.biz
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
eharas wrote:
> I am going to Terrible's next month and I would appreciate some help
> in explaining their promotions to me.
> 1.For the "Double Royal" promotion, do they change the paytables on
> the machines (and increase the variance?) Or do they just simply pay
> twice as much if one hits a royal?In a sense, variance is not affected by how the paytables are "set" and
is not something that is "set" anywhere in the machine if it is truly
random. Rather, it is the statistical result of the frequency of hands,
which is dependent upon the strategy you use, and what you are paid. I
know that sounds a bit like a contradiction, but what I'm saying is that
is you use correct strategy for the game, adjusted for the increased
value of the Royal -- regardless of whether the increase is shown on the
paytable or if you just happen to know it an keep it in your mind --
then the variance will be the same.
You are contradicting yourself. See where you wrote "...and what you are
paid." That part is right. So, if you stick to the exact same strategy and
they change a payoff, then the variance will change accordingly.
The altered payoff may or may not alter the optimal strategy, depending
which objective the strategy is designed to optimize. If one is playing
to minimize the average loss between royals, then the strategy will be
the same no matter what size payoff is used for the royal. But, if the
player wishes to maximize overall EV, the larger royal payoff will call
for a modified strategy.
Of course, the difference won't
show up in either WinPoker or FrugalVP unless you input the higher
value, but you could certain keep the regular paytable load in either
game, then take the resulting details from those screens after using the
modified strategy that is appropriate for a double Royal, and then
double the values of the Royal and do the math and you will find that
the variance should come out identically the same.
Sorry Bill, after reading this I can only conclude that you do not understand
variance. Variance is a function of probabilities and payoff values
combined. You seem to be claiming that variance only depends on the
probabilities that result from the strategy. This simply isn't true.
On Sunday 25 January 2004 01:35 pm, Bill Velek wrote:
Steve Jacobs wrote:
> eharas wrote:
> > I am going to Terrible's next month and I would appreciate some help
> > in explaining their promotions to me.
> > 1.For the "Double Royal" promotion, do they change the paytables on
> > the machines (and increase the variance?) Or do they just simply pay
> > twice as much if one hits a royal?
>
> In a sense, variance is not affected by how the paytables are "set" and
> is not something that is "set" anywhere in the machine if it is truly
> random. Rather, it is the statistical result of the frequency of hands,
> which is dependent upon the strategy you use, and what you are paid. I
> know that sounds a bit like a contradiction, but what I'm saying is that
> is you use correct strategy for the game, adjusted for the increased
> value of the Royal -- regardless of whether the increase is shown on the
> paytable or if you just happen to know it an keep it in your mind --
> then the variance will be the same.You are contradicting yourself. ...
That's why I _said_ it _sounds_ like a contradiction, ... but I don't
think it really is if you actually get right down to it. I think the
problem is that I'm just not very good at explaining something like
this. So let me please try with an example. In the case we were
discussing, the Casino is prepared to actually pay a different value for
the Royal than what is indicated on the paytable; let's compare this
with another similar arrangement that a casino might make that is easier
for me to explain without actually having to show all of the math to
prove my point. Pretend that instead of doubling the Royal (without
changing the machine's paytable), the casino instead decides that on all
of its JoB 7/5 machines, it will actually pay 9/6 (again, without
changing the machines' paytables). My original contention, which hasn't
changed, is that the variance is not determined by the machine or its
settings, but rather by the end result that is dependent upon the
strategy that is used and the pay that is _eventually_ received,
regardless of what sort of paytable is actually set, or shown, on the
machine.
Now, when we are playing the JoB 7/5 machine with perfect max-ER
strategy for _that_ particular paytable, we can expect to receive the
frequency of hands indicated by WinPoker or FrugalVP for that paytable,
and our variance will then be as indicated therein (based upon the
frequency and values of the hands we normally receive). Now, if I play
that very same machine but change my strategy to 'perfect max-ER for JoB
9/6' -- REGARDLESS of _what_ the paytables show, I can then expect to
receive the frequency of hands that is associated with a JoB 9/6
machine, and which can also be found via WinPoker or FrugalVP. This is
because the probability of initial dealt hands MUST be the same in a
random machine for all games using a 52-card deck, and then my chosen
strategy will determine the probable outcomes after the draw, and
therefore the frequency of hands is totally independent of any value
that we might assign to the hands. So, if a Royal Flush is worth 10, we
would still expect to get 64.345748 of them for every 52!/47!/5!=2598960
hands, PROVIDED THAT WE USE THE MAX-ER STRATEGY FOR JOB-9/6 ROYAL=4000.
In fact, we would expect to get all of the same frequency distributions
as we normally expect, no matter WHAT values we assign to ANY of the
hands, so long as the strategy we use is the same. We could even give
ALL of the hands a value of 'zero', right on the machine, and we would
STILL expect to get those same frequencies so long as we use the same
strategy for the 'normal' paytable.
Anyway, if you were to take that NEW set of frequencies resulting from
my altered strategy on a machine with UN-altered paytable, and do the
math with the paytable that is on the 7/5 machine, then you will get
something very different from what is normal for both 7/5 and 9/6.
However, if you will then take into consideration the additional amounts
that the casino will pay you for each FH and FL, and then redo your
math, you are _bound_ to end up with the same variance that WinPoker and
FrugalVP will show you for JoB 9/6 using perfect play for max-ER, even
though you are playing on a 7/5 machine. This HAS to be the result,
because your new frequency of hands matches the normal list for JoB 9/6
-- despite that you were playing on a JoB 7/5 machine -- and because
what you ACTUALLY receive, after adding in the extra 'bonus' promised by
the casino, is the same as if you had actually played a 9/6 machine and
were paid directly by it -- despite that you were only playing on a 7/5
machine.
The point that I was trying to make in my original post is that variance
is not dependent upon the 'paytable' if there are addition payments
directly from the casino, and it is certainly not dependent upon any
settings in the machine; instead, it is dependent upon how you play the
machine (the strategy you use) and what you _actually_ receive
(including amounts on the side).
See where you wrote "...and what you are
paid." That part is right. So, if you stick to the exact same
strategy and
they change a payoff, then the variance will change accordingly.
Agreed ... if you stick to the same strategy. What I was trying to say
is that if you change your strategy so that the frequency of hands
changes, then your variance will change. Likewise, if the value of your
hands changes, then your variance will also change, HOWEVER, what you
MUST consider is what you are _actually_ being paid ... and not just
what is on the paytables.
The altered payoff may or may not alter the optimal strategy, depending
which objective the strategy is designed to optimize. If one is playing
to minimize the average loss between royals, then the strategy will be
the same no matter what size payoff is used for the royal. But, if the
player wishes to maximize overall EV, the larger royal payoff will call
for a modified strategy.
Agreed. We've been down that road before, and I now understand that
point. I have started to try to qualify my answers more often with an
indication of max-ER strategy, as cumbersome as it is, ... but I think
that _MOST_ of the time _MOST_ of the folks are either asking about or
referring to strategy in terms of max-ER. Perhaps Tom needs to have a
poll on that question, so that we can establish a 'default' of sorts so
that we can then reasonably assume what we're talking about unless a
different strategy is specified. Do you think that would be a good idea?
> Of course, the difference won't
> show up in either WinPoker or FrugalVP unless you input the higher
> value, but you could certain keep the regular paytable load in either
> game, then take the resulting details from those screens after using the
> modified strategy that is appropriate for a double Royal, and then
> double the values of the Royal and do the math and you will find that
> the variance should come out identically the same.Sorry Bill, after reading this I can only conclude that you do not
understand
variance. ...
Well, I hope that I can change your mind. I don't have the time right
now to do the math to show you (maybe I should have just done that
instead of writing this explanation), but I think you will find a number
of my posts in the recent past where I have accurately and correctly
discussed variance. So let me take another stab at it this way ... and
not to change my answer but to clarify it. If we're speaking about JoB
9/6 with a Royal valued at 4000, then using max-ER strategy will render
a variance of 19.51468; changing the Royal value to 8000 changes the
variance to 81.79987 ... using max-ER strategy. This is what the
variance will actually be when playing a JoB 9/6 machine, SHOWING a 4000
Royal, if you use max-ER strategy AS IF THE TABLE SHOWED a Royal = 8000
and the casino backs up its promise and pays extra to give you double
Royal payouts -- and all of that is despite the fact that the machine
shows a Royal=4000. This is because the frequency of hands is modified
with the change of strategy and ends up looking identical to the
WinPoker analysis for a Royal=8000 game, despite the paytable listed on
the machine, and then when you are actually paid the extra amount by the
casino, you end up receiving the exact amounts that are indicated on the
modified WinPoker analysis, despite -- once again -- that the casino's
paytable just shows a Royal worth 4000.
... Variance is a function of probabilities and payoff values
combined. You seem to be claiming that variance only depends on the
probabilities that result from the strategy. This simply isn't true.
I'm sure I could have been clearer in what I originally said, and that
is probably the real problem, but otherwise I stand by my position. I
hope that this explanation is clear enough now.
Thanks for your feedback.
Bill Velek
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
On Sunday 25 January 2004 01:35 pm, Bill Velek wrote:
Bill, I had hoped to respond to your message tonight, but I've run
out of time. I'll get back to it as soon as I can.
The "double royal" promotion at Terrible's:
They pay double for all royals through 50c machines. From $1 up
they just pay an extra $2000 for the royal. The paytables are not
changed - it is just a bonus.
Also.... Read the details on the coupons that you intend to redeem
for merchandise. Certain coupons can be redeemed on certain days.
In addition.... they differentiate when your points are earned when
you go to redeem them for merchandise. A bottle of wine in the gift
shop that would normally 'cost' 500 points, will cost 500 points
earned when the 5x points promo is on, but will cost 2500 points
earned during the 5x points promo.
Read the details on their promo coupons sheets.
Jim
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <QueenofComps@f...> wrote: