TERRIBLE results - Need help from the 'numbers' people

[stungazed_stungazed]

I just had what was by far my worst 2 days of video poker play ever. My results seemed WAY below expectation and I was hoping some of you that like to crunch numbers would offer up some info about whether my results are rare or not and if so how rare, and if I should expect to see a trip like this anytime soon again. I've NEVER had results as bad as I did this trip. In fact not even close to as bad as my results were this trip. I used to play the same game at the dollar level and have never had results this poor in the past, even when playing for dollars.

I'll provide as much info here as possible to help

The game I was playing was 8/5 bonus triple play at the 25¢ level. I play this game near perfectly but do make some mistakes while playing. With that take into account I'd say I still play this game with a 99% return as opposed to 99.2% the game is worth.

- Over 2 days I ran just under $52,000 through the machines

- I had a loss of approximately $1700 cash out of pocket

- Add to that $50 in cash back I had redeemed from a previous trip

- To make matters worse, I DID hit 1 royal and still lost $1700

- I played 11 sessions - 10 at $5,000 coin in and 1 at $2,000 coin in and lost 10 of them. The losses were $25, $150, $150, $75, $475, $50, $525, $150, $425, $200, $200. The winning session was $800 from the royal I hit

- It wasn't uncommon to go 10-12 hands in a row with ZERO winners. Numerous times I'd hit a bonus quad and in minutes it would be gone

- Of the larger hits I had
  - 1 Straight Flush
  - 1 Royal Flush
  - 4 Quad Aces
  - 30 Bonus Quads
  - 67 Regular Quads
  - 22 Dealt Full Houses
  - 1 Dealt Bonus Quad (already included in the Bonus quads total above)
  - 1 Dealt Quad (already included in the quad total above)

I'll add that I believe the games are fair and dealing randomly as I am playing in a major casino in a larger gaming town & have won many times here including hitting royals

Thanks for the info and the help

[Harry_Porter]

I'm going to presume that you don't typically grind out the play in this manner (it sounds like 20+ hours of 3-play over the course of two days) because on the surface there's nothing terribly anomalous in your play outcome.

Setting aside the RF pay, you suffered a bit more than 5% loss vs an expected loss of 3%. A negative deviation of 2% on quarter 3-play of this length is undesirable, but something you should be prepared to have the stomach for. I'm just winging a guestimate, but my gut feeling is that you would expect such a result (or worse) with a frequency no less than 10% of such trips (I'd think the number would be more like 12%-15%).

But it's notable that for your logged hits you came within $300 of expectation. That means that $850 of your adverse variance from expectation lie with the frequently occurring Pr thru FH hands. That is a little unusual, but bear in mind that we're still talking about you realizing 88% return vs 90% expected on these hands.

James wrote:

···

I just had what was by far my worst 2 days of video poker play ever. My results seemed WAY below expectation and I was hoping some of you that like to crunch numbers would offer up some info about whether my results are rare or not and if so how rare, and if I should expect to see a trip like this anytime soon again. I've NEVER had results as bad as I did this trip. In fact not even close to as bad as my results were this trip. I used to play the same game at the dollar level and have never had results this poor in the past, even when playing for dollars.

I'll provide as much info here as possible to help

The game I was playing was 8/5 bonus triple play at the 25¢ level. I play this game near perfectly but do make some mistakes while playing. With that take into account I'd say I still play this game with a 99% return as opposed to 99.2% the game is worth.

- Over 2 days I ran just under $52,000 through the machines

- I had a loss of approximately $1700 cash out of pocket

- Add to that $50 in cash back I had redeemed from a previous trip

- To make matters worse, I DID hit 1 royal and still lost $1700

- I played 11 sessions - 10 at $5,000 coin in and 1 at $2,000 coin in and lost 10 of them. The losses were $25, $150, $150, $75, $475, $50, $525, $150, $425, $200, $200. The winning session was $800 from the royal I hit

- It wasn't uncommon to go 10-12 hands in a row with ZERO winners. Numerous times I'd hit a bonus quad and in minutes it would be gone

- Of the larger hits I had
  - 1 Straight Flush
  - 1 Royal Flush
  - 4 Quad Aces
  - 30 Bonus Quads
  - 67 Regular Quads
  - 22 Dealt Full Houses
  - 1 Dealt Bonus Quad (already included in the Bonus quads total above)
  - 1 Dealt Quad (already included in the quad total above)

I'll add that I believe the games are fair and dealing randomly as I am playing in a major casino in a larger gaming town & have won many times here including hitting royals

Thanks for the info and the help

[Dunbar]

Harry, the outcome is even more common than your good guestimate. I calc the chance of losing $1700 or more from a coin-in of $52,000 while playing 3-play bonus poker with 99.0% return (after errors) is 18%.

--Dunbar

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "HarryP" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

I'm going to presume that you don't typically grind out the play in this manner (it sounds like 20+ hours of 3-play over the course of two days) because on the surface there's nothing terribly anomalous in your play outcome.

Setting aside the RF pay, you suffered a bit more than 5% loss vs an expected loss of 3%. A negative deviation of 2% on quarter 3-play of this length is undesirable, but something you should be prepared to have the stomach for. I'm just winging a guestimate, but my gut feeling is that you would expect such a result (or worse) with a frequency no less than 10% of such trips (I'd think the number would be more like 12%-15%).

But it's notable that for your logged hits you came within $300 of expectation. That means that $850 of your adverse variance from expectation lie with the frequently occurring Pr thru FH hands. That is a little unusual, but bear in mind that we're still talking about you realizing 88% return vs 90% expected on these hands.

James wrote:
>
> I just had what was by far my worst 2 days of video poker play ever. My results seemed WAY below expectation and I was hoping some of you that like to crunch numbers would offer up some info about whether my results are rare or not and if so how rare, and if I should expect to see a trip like this anytime soon again. I've NEVER had results as bad as I did this trip. In fact not even close to as bad as my results were this trip. I used to play the same game at the dollar level and have never had results this poor in the past, even when playing for dollars.
>
> I'll provide as much info here as possible to help
>
> The game I was playing was 8/5 bonus triple play at the 25¢ level. I play this game near perfectly but do make some mistakes while playing. With that take into account I'd say I still play this game with a 99% return as opposed to 99.2% the game is worth.
>
> - Over 2 days I ran just under $52,000 through the machines
>
> - I had a loss of approximately $1700 cash out of pocket
>
> - Add to that $50 in cash back I had redeemed from a previous trip
>
> - To make matters worse, I DID hit 1 royal and still lost $1700
>
> - I played 11 sessions - 10 at $5,000 coin in and 1 at $2,000 coin in and lost 10 of them. The losses were $25, $150, $150, $75, $475, $50, $525, $150, $425, $200, $200. The winning session was $800 from the royal I hit
>
> - It wasn't uncommon to go 10-12 hands in a row with ZERO winners. Numerous times I'd hit a bonus quad and in minutes it would be gone
>
> - Of the larger hits I had
> - 1 Straight Flush
> - 1 Royal Flush
> - 4 Quad Aces
> - 30 Bonus Quads
> - 67 Regular Quads
> - 22 Dealt Full Houses
> - 1 Dealt Bonus Quad (already included in the Bonus quads total above)
> - 1 Dealt Quad (already included in the quad total above)
>
> I'll add that I believe the games are fair and dealing randomly as I am playing in a major casino in a larger gaming town & have won many times here including hitting royals
>
> Thanks for the info and the help
>

[HOHOHONDO]

I have been in a really long losing streak. It's getting harder to believe in the law of averages. Playing only 9/6 job, 8/5 bonus, and a lot of over 100 percent games while in Las Vegas, I think I have lost about $25,000 in the last 2 years. I use Dancer strategies and some from vpgenius and other sources.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:

Harry, the outcome is even more common than your good guestimate. I calc the chance of losing $1700 or more from a coin-in of $52,000 while playing 3-play bonus poker with 99.0% return (after errors) is 18%.

--Dunbar

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "HarryP" <harry.porter@> wrote:
>
> I'm going to presume that you don't typically grind out the play in this manner (it sounds like 20+ hours of 3-play over the course of two days) because on the surface there's nothing terribly anomalous in your play outcome.
>
> Setting aside the RF pay, you suffered a bit more than 5% loss vs an expected loss of 3%. A negative deviation of 2% on quarter 3-play of this length is undesirable, but something you should be prepared to have the stomach for. I'm just winging a guestimate, but my gut feeling is that you would expect such a result (or worse) with a frequency no less than 10% of such trips (I'd think the number would be more like 12%-15%).
>
> But it's notable that for your logged hits you came within $300 of expectation. That means that $850 of your adverse variance from expectation lie with the frequently occurring Pr thru FH hands. That is a little unusual, but bear in mind that we're still talking about you realizing 88% return vs 90% expected on these hands.
>
>
>
>
> James wrote:
> >
> > I just had what was by far my worst 2 days of video poker play ever. My results seemed WAY below expectation and I was hoping some of you that like to crunch numbers would offer up some info about whether my results are rare or not and if so how rare, and if I should expect to see a trip like this anytime soon again. I've NEVER had results as bad as I did this trip. In fact not even close to as bad as my results were this trip. I used to play the same game at the dollar level and have never had results this poor in the past, even when playing for dollars.
> >
> > I'll provide as much info here as possible to help
> >
> > The game I was playing was 8/5 bonus triple play at the 25¢ level. I play this game near perfectly but do make some mistakes while playing. With that take into account I'd say I still play this game with a 99% return as opposed to 99.2% the game is worth.
> >
> > - Over 2 days I ran just under $52,000 through the machines
> >
> > - I had a loss of approximately $1700 cash out of pocket
> >
> > - Add to that $50 in cash back I had redeemed from a previous trip
> >
> > - To make matters worse, I DID hit 1 royal and still lost $1700
> >
> > - I played 11 sessions - 10 at $5,000 coin in and 1 at $2,000 coin in and lost 10 of them. The losses were $25, $150, $150, $75, $475, $50, $525, $150, $425, $200, $200. The winning session was $800 from the royal I hit
> >
> > - It wasn't uncommon to go 10-12 hands in a row with ZERO winners. Numerous times I'd hit a bonus quad and in minutes it would be gone
> >
> > - Of the larger hits I had
> > - 1 Straight Flush
> > - 1 Royal Flush
> > - 4 Quad Aces
> > - 30 Bonus Quads
> > - 67 Regular Quads
> > - 22 Dealt Full Houses
> > - 1 Dealt Bonus Quad (already included in the Bonus quads total above)
> > - 1 Dealt Quad (already included in the quad total above)
> >
> > I'll add that I believe the games are fair and dealing randomly as I am playing in a major casino in a larger gaming town & have won many times here including hitting royals
> >
> > Thanks for the info and the help
> >
>

[Robert_Romanyshyn]

What is your accuracy average when you practice on the computer? I don't play a VP game unless I average at least 99.5% accuracy on practice play. Even "law of averages" states that there will be big losers/winners on the extreme edge of the bell curve even if you play perfectly which is impossible.
Bob

···

--- On Mon, 12/14/09, HOHOHONDO <hohohondo@yahoo.com> wrote:

I have been in a really long losing streak. It's getting harder to believe in the law of averages. Playing only 9/6 job, 8/5 bonus, and a lot of over 100 percent games while in Las Vegas, I think I have lost about $25,000 in the last 2 years. I use Dancer >strategies and some from vpgenius and other sources.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[hashpipek]

Is there a practice software that includes Pick'em Poker? I tried the demo of Dancers software but couldn't find Pick'em.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Robert Romanyshyn <bobfpdw@...> wrote:

What is your accuracy average when you practice on the computer? I don't play a VP game unless I average at least 99.5% accuracy on practice play. Even "law of averages" states that there will be big losers/winners on the extreme edge of the bell curve even if you play perfectly which is impossible.Â
Bob

--- On Mon, 12/14/09, HOHOHONDO <hohohondo@...> wrote:

>I have been in a really long losing streak. It's getting harder to believe in the law of averages. Playing only 9/6 job, 8/5 bonus, and a lot of over 100 percent games while in Las Vegas, I think I have lost about $25,000 in the last 2 years. I use Dancer >strategies and some from vpgenius and other sources.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Jean]

Frugal Video Poker software does have Pick'Em.

···

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