Super Times Pay....
2 Questions
1. Playing 9/6 JB, is the Volatility any Different??
2. Bankroll required for 10 cent ten line at 1% ROR.
Thanks,
Rick(RI)
Super Times Pay
1. While I won't attempt to quantify the "volatility", you need to
realize that the main game and the appearance of the multiplier are
independent events: you'll get the cycle of the 10x RF by multiplying
the cycle of a reguler RF and that of the 10x multiplier - that's
going to be pretty long.
2. The EV of STP is within a hair of that of regular play. 9/6 JoB STP
is a negative game, so RoR is always 100% regardless of your bankroll.
JBQ
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On 2/8/06, rva237 <richard237m@mailaka.net> wrote:
Super Times Pay....
1. Playing 9/6 JB, is the Volatility any Different??
2. Bankroll required for 10 cent ten line at 1% ROR.
2. The EV of STP is within a hair of that of regular play. 9/6 JoB STP
is a negative game, so RoR is always 100% regardless of your bankroll.
HUMM..
With .009 other cash it's 100.07.
STP JB is over .998
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On 2/8/06, rva237 <richard237m@...> wrote:
> Super Times Pay....
>
> 1. Playing 9/6 JB, is the Volatility any Different??
>
> 2. Bankroll required for 10 cent ten line at 1% ROR.
The theoretical return for 9/6 JB on STP is 99.82%, I believe. It needs only .18% to reach the land of positiveria. (Actually, it's breakevenville at .18% CB). As JBQ implies, any quarter game that has a top jackpot of $100,000 (and a variety of other jackpot possibilities up to about $80,000*) has some serious volatility. But it's a lot of fun.
*I don't think there is a 9X multiplier, is there?
Skip
http://www.vpinsider.com
Jean-Baptiste Queru wrote:
···
1. While I won't attempt to quantify the "volatility", you need to
realize that the main game and the appearance of the multiplier are
independent events: you'll get the cycle of the 10x RF by multiplying
the cycle of a reguler RF and that of the 10x multiplier - that's
going to be pretty long.2. The EV of STP is within a hair of that of regular play. 9/6 JoB STP
is a negative game, so RoR is always 100% regardless of your bankroll.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Skip Hughes <skiphughes@...> wrote:<
The theoretical return for 9/6 JB on STP is 99.82%, <<
This I knew from the Wizzards site.
only .18% to reach the land of positiveria. (Actually, it's
breakevenville at .18% CB). As JBQ implies, any quarter game that has
a top jackpot of $100,000 (and a variety of other jackpot possibilities
up to about $80,000*) has some serious volatility. But it's a lot of
fun.<
This I find very interesting. The added volatility is implied in them
few circumstances. I would assume some strategy changes would occur
with high multipliers so the Max EV wouldn't be achieved unless we knew
this strategy?? BUT we won't go there...........
Now for my second original question, assuming a average return of .9975
(no strategy changes), an additional .0085 assorted cash, for a total
return of 100.6.
Playing Dimes at 10 lines, what are my Bankroll requirements for a ROR
of 1%.
Thanks,
Rick(RI)
There are no strategy changes in STP that wouldn't apply in JoB, since
the cards are dealt the same way and since the paytable is the same.
Strategy changes that deviate from max-EV in order to minimize
variance or to maximize the probability of a royal (or any other
change of your choice) apply exactly the same way. Whether you want to
apply different strategy changes to different multipliers is up to
you.
With the data given in the another STP thread, high multipliers (8x
and 10x) happen once every 150 hands on average, which means that the
cycle for an 8x or 10x royal in 10-play is approximately 1-in-660000,
almost the same as that of a dealt royal. 8x and 10x royals contribute
approximately 0.1% or the return, almost as much as dealt royals, you
don't want to ignore that.
I'm finding that STP multiplies the variance by 1.59.
Based on your numbers, 10-play dime JoB STP has a standard deviation
of $12.16 for 1 deal, and the game is positive by 3 cents.
As a comparison, 75-play 2c JoB has a standard deviation of $11.12 for
1 deal, and the game is positive by the same 3 cents. You get more
coin-in, a smaller SD, a smaller part of your return depends on rare
hands, and your RF cycle is much shorter. Or the elusive 50c FPDW has
a SD of $12.7, is positive by 4 cents, and doesn't depend on rare
hands at all. Or the hard-top-find 3-play quarter DB has a SD of
$12.80 and is positive by 3.8 cents ($18 and 6 cents for 5-play). All
those assume 0.85% cash. I understand that you may not be able to find
all those games in the same casino and that therefore my comparison my
be totally irrelevant, but since I wanted to do it for my own
education I figured I'd share it with the list.
JBQ
···
On 2/9/06, rva237 <richard237m@mailaka.net> wrote:
I would assume some strategy changes would occur
with high multipliers so the Max EV wouldn't be achieved unless we knew
this strategy?
Now that I'm awake, I realize that my 1.59 number is probably not
exact - I made a mistake in the way I approached the problem, and it's
going to take a little bit more work if I want to get it right. It's
probably not too far off, though.
JBQ
···
On 2/9/06, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@gmail.com> wrote:
I'm finding that STP multiplies the variance by 1.59.
There are no strategy changes in STP that wouldn't apply in JoB,
since the cards are dealt the same way and since the paytable is the
same.<
Thanks, after some thought I had already come to that conclusion.
Based on your numbers, 10-play dime JoB STP has a standard deviation
of $12.16 for 1 deal, and the game is positive by 3 cents.
Any conclusion on Bankroll needed for a 1% ROR???
Rick,
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jean-Baptiste Queru <jbqueru@...> wrote: