vpFREE2 Forums

Super Bowl bet

Today I saw that Pittsburgh is -180 and Seattle is +$160 on the money line. If I have a $20 ticket at 40:1 on Seattle to win the Superbowl, I have a couple of options:

1) Keep my ticket and either lose $20 or win $800

2) Bet $527 on Pittsburgh at -$180. If Pittsburgh wins, I win $527/$180 - $20 or $272.78. If Seattle wins, I win $800 - $527 or $273.

The interesting thing about possibly hedging this bet is that the money line changes based on who is in the Superbowl and the present condition of the teams. The futures bet stays the same for the whole season.

Suppose Hell actually did freeze over and Seattle was playing Detroit in the Superbowl. Seattle might be -$300 on the money line and Detroit is +$250. Now you can bet $234 on the Lions and guarantee $565.

By hedging this bet, you are really betting that Seattle will get to the superbowl instead of win the superbowl. It would be interesting to compare this bet to the futures line for Seattle to get to the Superbowl.

So I guess the real questions are a) What would you sell this for and b) how much would someone pay for it? If you bet Seattle now, $500 will win you $800. You should be able to sell the ticket to a Seattle bettor for $450.
That's much better than hedging the bet.

ยทยทยท

****************************************************************************************

Note: If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to the message and deleting it from your computer. Thank you.

****************************************************************************************

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Zaroff, John" <John.G.Zaroff@d...>
wrote:

Today I saw that Pittsburgh is -180 and Seattle is +$160 on the

money line. If I have a $20 ticket at 40:1 on Seattle to win the
Superbowl, I have a couple of options:

1) Keep my ticket and either lose $20 or win $800

2) Bet $527 on Pittsburgh at -$180. If Pittsburgh wins, I win $527/

$180 - $20 or $272.78. If Seattle wins, I win $800 - $527 or $273.

If I were to bet $273.00 on the Hawks at +l60 I would get back either
$709.80 or nothing. In your case you will be getting back $820.00 or
nothing. That's got to be something like +300. Clearly, hedging is
not the best bet here. The only way I would hedge is if I was really
hurting for the money.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@y...>
wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Zaroff, John" <John.G.Zaroff@d...>
wrote:
>
>
> Today I saw that Pittsburgh is -180 and Seattle is +$160 on the
money line. If I have a $20 ticket at 40:1 on Seattle to win the
Superbowl, I have a couple of options:
>
> 1) Keep my ticket and either lose $20 or win $800
>
>
> 2) Bet $527 on Pittsburgh at -$180. If Pittsburgh wins, I win

$527/

$180 - $20 or $272.78. If Seattle wins, I win $800 - $527 or

$273.

If I were to bet $273.00 on the Hawks at +l60 I would get back

either

$709.80 or nothing. In your case you will be getting back $820.00

or

nothing. That's got to be something like +300. Clearly, hedging

is

not the best bet here. The only way I would hedge is if I was

really

hurting for the money.

Correction. Not hedging would put you at around +200