Today I saw that Pittsburgh is -180 and Seattle is +$160 on the money line. If I have a $20 ticket at 40:1 on Seattle to win the Superbowl, I have a couple of options:
1) Keep my ticket and either lose $20 or win $800
2) Bet $527 on Pittsburgh at -$180. If Pittsburgh wins, I win $527/$180 - $20 or $272.78. If Seattle wins, I win $800 - $527 or $273.
The interesting thing about possibly hedging this bet is that the money line changes based on who is in the Superbowl and the present condition of the teams. The futures bet stays the same for the whole season.
Suppose Hell actually did freeze over and Seattle was playing Detroit in the Superbowl. Seattle might be -$300 on the money line and Detroit is +$250. Now you can bet $234 on the Lions and guarantee $565.
By hedging this bet, you are really betting that Seattle will get to the superbowl instead of win the superbowl. It would be interesting to compare this bet to the futures line for Seattle to get to the Superbowl.
So I guess the real questions are a) What would you sell this for and b) how much would someone pay for it? If you bet Seattle now, $500 will win you $800. You should be able to sell the ticket to a Seattle bettor for $450.
That's much better than hedging the bet.
ยทยทยท
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