vpFREE2 Forums

Super Bowl bet question

#1

In a message dated 1/30/2006 10:32:43 A.M. Pacific Standard Time,
bayfieldkent@yahoo.com writes:

Just for kicks, what would you do? Bet against them as a hedge? Stay with
just the original bet?

Depends how you feel about their chances. Obviously you can take some
profit by betting the other way for some portion of the $800 you stand to win if
they do win the game. I'm not sure how the points issue would involve itself
but I'm sure you could make such a bet, say $400, to guarantee a $400 profit.

I'd love to be in such a position.

Karen

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

In a message dated 1/30/2006 10:32:43 A.M. Pacific Standard Time,
bayfieldkent@yahoo.com writes:

Just for kicks, what would you do? Bet against them as a hedge? Stay with
just the original bet?

Depends how you feel about their chances. Obviously you can take some
profit by betting the other way for some portion of the $800 you stand to win if
they do win the game. I'm not sure how the points issue would involve itself
but I'm sure you could make such a bet, say $400, to guarantee a $400 profit.

I'd love to be in such a position.

Karen

This has the same difficult answer that trying to balance expected
value and risk in video poker has. I'd "shop around" for money line
bets (which eliminate the complicating factor of the point spread) on
Pittsburgh. If I found a good one, I'd bet it in such a way that it
would return the same $820 that your Seattle bet will. Unfortunately,
Pittsburgh is the favorite (which I don't understand), so you'll have
to bet more than $400 to accomplish this. If I didn't find a good
one, I'd just let it ride, not wanting to give up too much value to
cut the risk.