Since there are several people who insist on playing only positive
VP, can
the game (with cashback and promos) be positive without hitting a
royal???
You basically answer your own question, but the simple truth is that
if cashback + actual value of comps + actual value of bounceback
cash, mail offers, etc.+ actual value of "discretionary" comps + the
EV of any promotions equals "x", and if the inherent EV (say, FPDW,
100.76) + "x" MINUS the return % of the royal is still over 100%,
then you are still playing at positive expectation. So FPDW without
any royals is a 99% game, but comps, cashback, etc. can drag that
back over 100% in certain cases.
For a long time the basic goal of any "pro" or advantage player was
to play under such conditions that failing to hit a royal still gave
a breakeven result. This is getting harder and harder to accomplish,
but it still can be done---for instance, play FPDW on a double
points day in a casino that gives .25 cashback and mails .40 out in
bounceback cash, and you're pretty close right there to breakeven.
To calculate the possible loss to bankroll, would you multiply
that by the
coin-in or the bankroll amount???
The coin-in is all that counts; the loss would be the same AMOUNT to
a $5000 or a $50000 bankroll.
I'm sort of trying to justify our recent losses this past month.
Playing
throughout July I didn't get one set of ducks or a royal, the wife
did get 2
sets of ducks. Total gambling losses totaled about $3,000 with a
total coin
in approximately of $76,000. If the calculation used is "return
times
coin-in" , then darn if I'm not close to dead on. Negative but the
calc
works. Unfortunately 3K puts a nice dent into the bankroll.
Strangely enough, you should find your results somewhat reassuring;
they help "prove" that you are playing the game properly (minimal
mistakes) since you are just about on the mark for EV (given the
conditions and results you state).
How are some people doing this with much smaller bankrolls than
us? I've
heard people comment on having much less than 3-5 royals worth of
bankroll.
Ours was 6K but that's mostly gone now.
A lot of people---including myself some years ago--have FAILED to
survive with small bankrolls, even with perfect play on positive EV
machines.
Even a three-royal bankroll only reduces ROR to 5% with some games.
I ran a bunch of simulations to test the longevity of a $1000
bankroll. That sucker evaporated over NINETY PERCENT of the time
when run through a million hands.
When hitting these downturns, what have some of you done to
alleviate it,
such as long shots etc.?? I know some people say, "I just keep
playing
because it's positive and it will turn around." But, if you're
going out
there with less than optimal bankroll because of a previous
downturn, you
could lose it all on the next slide.
Other than externally refueling the bankroll, is there something
people have
done to stay in the game or are the people who are truly serious
about this
having much much larger bankrolls than 5K.
NOTE: This is all quarter denom talk.
There is no quick fix to the short bankroll problem, but here's what
you can do to maximize bankroll life:
1. Play where cashback rather than comps are offered, and take
advantage of EVERY multiple point day at such places.
2. Wheedle the info out of the slot boothlings (or somebody here)
what the threshold amounts are for each level of mailed cashback.
Play only UP TO (and not beyond) the highest tier you are aiming for.
This has a corollary: spread your play around (different casinos).
3. Don't play high-volatilty games with minimal positive EV if the
purpose of doing so is promotion-oriented (example would be playing
10/7 DB because of a card-of-the-day or scratch card promotion).
4. Eat your comps. Even if you get sick of the buffet, remember that
that's ten bucks you would otherwise have spent, and can be added to
your bankroll. (I think of meals while I'm playing as a business
expense like any other.)
PS: I can see why it's hard to be a professional, physically,
emotionally and monetarily.
Yes. In the "real world", no matter how crappy of a day you have at
work, they will still pay you. AND, no matter how crappy of a job
you do, they will never TAKE MONEY AWAY from you!