vpFREE2 Forums

streaks, sessions, taking the profit

#1

I played TP NSUD for quarters at a local casino. The cashback is 0.167% but there is a drawing going on that is worth 0.5% or so. I also had a $50 free play offer. I played the $50 through and had $30 left when I was done. I kept playing, got up to $200 and then lost that plus another $500. So, on about $5500 coin in, I lost $550. A pretty high percentage loss but they certainly happen.

Now, I could have quit after I finished the free play ( $30), at the high point of my free play ( $200), after the first additional $100, or second or 3rd, etc. However, at no point during my play did the value of the next hand diminish. I figured I was about a 0.4% favorite so I played. I don't believe going up $150 caused me to lose $500. I don't believe any hand or hands in the past influenced the current hand.

In summary, 1) streaks happen but you only know it when the streak is over, 2) losing 10% during a day's play is going to happen and happen much more than we like, 3) taking a profit is a term better suited to the stock market, 4) If it's a good play now, it's a good play in a 100 or a 1000 hands, regardless of the results, progressives excepted.

#2

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "John.G.Zaroff" <John.G.Zaroff@d...>
wrote:

In summary, 1) streaks happen but you only know it when the streak

is over, 2) losing 10% during a day's play is going to happen and
happen much more than we like, 3) taking a profit is a term better
suited to the stock market, 4) If it's a good play now, it's a good
play in a 100 or a 1000 hands, regardless of the results,
progressives excepted.

Everything that you say is reasoned, logical, and, in my opinion,
undeniably true. It is also undeniably true that you will not
persuade the ticket takers, seat hoppers, snake charmers or other
druids who believe their actions in some mystical way mollify the
cold, implacable RNG algorithm.

A series of excellent efforts on your part, but the two camps have
long since erected barriers and posted guards.

#3

Now, I could have quit after I finished the free play ( $30), at

the high point
of my free play ( $200), after the first additional $100, or second
or 3rd,
etc. However, at no point during my play did the value of the next
hand
diminish. I figured I was about a 0.4% favorite so I played. I don't
believe
going up $150 caused me to lose $500. I don't believe any hand or
hands in the
past influenced the current hand.<<<

I'll read that over and over and over, simply to re-enforce my notion
that setting win and loss limits per session is smart play.

In summary, 1) streaks happen but you only know it when the streak

is over<<<

Ever hear the term "on a streak?" Pretty common in dice, poker,
baseball, business, etc. Suppose they made that phrase up for a
reason?

>>>2)losing 10% during a day's play is going to happen and happen
much more than we like.<<<

Very true, and usually it's more than that, but it's good to know
that you've had that +.04 working for you all the while, huh?

3) taking a profit is a term better suited to the stock market.<<<

Taking a profit is a term best suited to any activity in which the
goal is to make money.

4) If it's a good play now, it's a good play in a 100 or a 1000

hands, regardless of the results...<<<

True again, but it begs the question of when, if ever, is a good time
to quit, short of having that decision made for you when you're out
of funds. Pros know the value of "taking a profit." That's why
they're pros.

lb

#4

>>>Now, I could have quit after I finished the free play ( $30), at
the high point
of my free play ( $200), after the first additional $100, or second
or 3rd,
etc. However, at no point during my play did the value of the next
hand
diminish. I figured I was about a 0.4% favorite so I played. I don't
believe
going up $150 caused me to lose $500. I don't believe any hand or
hands in the
past influenced the current hand.<<<

I'll read that over and over and over, simply to re-enforce my notion
that setting win and loss limits per session is smart play.

     "Smart" for the adequately bankrolled only if one holds superstitious
ideas, or has psyhological needs that overcome maximizing return.

>>>In summary, 1) streaks happen but you only know it when the streak
is over<<<

Ever hear the term "on a streak?" Pretty common in dice, poker,
baseball, business, etc. Suppose they made that phrase up for a
reason?

     I have also heard of seances, ghosts, and telekinesis. Each of those
were words made up by people for a reason, namely that they misunderstood
the nature of what they were describing.

>>>2)losing 10% during a day's play is going to happen and happen
much more than we like.<<<

Very true, and usually it's more than that, but it's good to know
that you've had that +.04 working for you all the while, huh?

     Those who don't stop play because of some arbitrary win or loss have
that extra working for them a lot longer than those who do.

>>>3) taking a profit is a term better suited to the stock market.<<<

Taking a profit is a term best suited to any activity in which the
goal is to make money.

     Unless there is some short-term requirement for the money (in which
case you are overbetting), or if you find it psychologically devastating
to ever drop below a high point (in which case you have the wrong hobby)
it is not rational to "lock up" a win.

>>>4) If it's a good play now, it's a good play in a 100 or a 1000
hands, regardless of the results...<<<

True again, but it begs the question of when, if ever, is a good time
to quit, short of having that decision made for you when you're out
of funds. Pros know the value of "taking a profit." That's why
they're pros.

lb

     They know the value of "making a profit", which involves getting
hours in until they are hungry, blurry-eyed, etc.

gj

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On Fri, 25 Jul 2003, lawrenceboxer wrote: