gj bart's post has been answered by lawrenceboxer on
FREEvpFREE for anyone who wants to pursue this thread.
Here's a link to the post by lawrenceboxer on FREEvpFREE:
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http://tinyurl.com/i0d7</a>
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To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: gj bart <bronco@eskimo.com>
Date sent: Thu, 24 Jul 2003 23:26:49 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: streaks, sessions, taking the profit
On Fri, 25 Jul 2003, lawrenceboxer wrote:
>>>Now, I could have quit after I finished the free play ( $30),
at the high point of my free play ( $200), after the first
additional $100, or second or 3rd, etc. However, at no point during
my play did the value of the next hand diminish. I figured I was
about a 0.4% favorite so I played. I don't believe going up $150
caused me to lose $500. I don't believe any hand or hands in the
past influenced the current hand.<<<I'll read that over and over and over, simply to re-enforce my
notion that setting win and loss limits per session is smart play.
"Smart" for the adequately bankrolled only if one holds
superstitious
ideas, or has psyhological needs that overcome maximizing return.
>>>In summary, 1) streaks happen but you only know it when the
>>>streak
is over<<<Ever hear the term "on a streak?" Pretty common in dice, poker,
baseball, business, etc. Suppose they made that phrase up for a
reason?
I have also heard of seances, ghosts, and telekinesis. Each of
those
were words made up by people for a reason, namely that they
misunderstood the nature of what they were describing.
>>>2)losing 10% during a day's play is going to happen and happen
much more than we like.<<<Very true, and usually it's more than that, but it's good to know
that you've had that +.04 working for you all the while, huh?
Those who don't stop play because of some arbitrary win or loss
have
that extra working for them a lot longer than those who do.
>>>3) taking a profit is a term better suited to the stock
>>>market.<<<Taking a profit is a term best suited to any activity in which the
goal is to make money.
Unless there is some short-term requirement for the money (in
which
case you are overbetting), or if you find it psychologically
devastating to ever drop below a high point (in which case you have
the wrong hobby) it is not rational to "lock up" a win.
>>>4) If it's a good play now, it's a good play in a 100 or a 1000
hands, regardless of the results...<<<True again, but it begs the question of when, if ever, is a good
time to quit, short of having that decision made for you when you're
out of funds. Pros know the value of "taking a profit." That's why
they're pros.lb
They know the value of "making a profit", which involves getting
hours in until they are hungry, blurry-eyed, etc.
gj