vpFREE2 Forums

strategy, er, variance

all you need to know about a fair and regulated (no cheating) gamble
is the strategy, er and variance. with that you know the 10% risk of
ruin bankroll required = variance/(1-er) bets. this bankroll is
absolutely required because even though this is positive gambling,
it's still gambling, even though the average return is positive you
still stand a 10% chance of losing your bankroll. ( once you
understand this you understand why negative gambling is such a folly,
despite occasional wins negative gambling will eat up an infinite
bankroll, the risk of ruin is 100%, the more you play the more you
lose, it's like struggling with a python, yes people do it, and
people smoke and do drugs also, never underestimate the human species
drive toward self destruction.) also, you know N0 = variance/(1-er)
^2 , this is the number of hands that must be played so that the
average return (er) catches up with the standard deviation (square
root of variance). at this point your chance of being a net winner is
84%. at 4N0 your chances are 98%. also, you know the bankroll growth
index is (1-er)^2 x10^7 /variance, this gives you a way to compare
different games.

example:
quarter full pay deuces wild plus .25% cashback:
er=1.01, variance=26
bankroll=variance/(1-er)=2600bets x $1.25/bet = $3250
N0=variance/(1-er)^2=260,000 hands
BGI=(1-er)^2 x10^7 /variance=38