As for adjusting your strategy to go for more royals or quads, that
is generally a good way to decrease your bankroll rather than
increase it. However, you might want to look through the sections on
alternative strategies
I am not questioning the current poster; only the "Strategies"
contained in the reference.
I considered the three strategies, 9/6 JoB Min-Cost-Royal Strategy,
9/6 JoB Min-Risk Strategy, and the 9/6 JoB Best-Shot-Royal Strategy.
Let me call these as Strategies #1, #2, and #3
As I suspect I am treading on Dogma, which is verboten, I will try to
provide "significant, persuasive documentation"; at least as far as I
understand it to be.
The preambles to each of these strategies make it appear to the
layman, as if these are significantly different, despite an admission
in the first case that #1 and #2 are very close but not identical.
I copied the strategies to an Excel spreadsheet, and compared them
side by side.
There are 49 rules in each strategy, starting from Royal Flush to
Garbage. #1 and #2 differ in steps 46 and 47 (of the 49 steps). If
you have suited AT and three junk cards, #1 recommends keeping the
suited AT, and #2 recommends keeping just the Ace. As the next best
choice, #1 recommends keeping the Ace, #2, keeping suited AT.
That's it. All the other rules from 1 to 49, except for 46 & 47 are
the same.
Is this minor, insignificant (remember the difference starts at the
46th of 49 rules) difference enough to warrant labeling these as two
major strategies? I have come across this situation before in some
routing programs. Let's say you ask for directions to go from point A
to point B, and ask for two choices. Minimum time, and minimum
distance. Out come a set of 49 steps for each, with the difference in
the 46th and 47th steps. In one you take a left and a right, in the
second you go straight for one more block and turn left. It is a
question of 99.8 miles and 125 minutes (minimum distance) for one and
99.9 miles and 124 minutes (minimum time) for another.
The difference between Strategies #2 and #3 is a little bit, but only
a little bit more.
The preferred choice in steps 28 and 29, for strategies #1 and #2 is
3 Cards to a Straight Flush with 0-gaps, and 0 high-cards, and then
suited QJ. For Strategy #3, this order is reversed.
Then it is the same until step 41. At 41/42, the choices are,
respectively, Jack and unsuited KT, for #1 and #2. For #3, this order
is reversed.
At 43/44, the choices are, respectively, unsuited AJ/AQ/AK and Queen
by itself, for #1 and #2. For #3, this order is reversed.
Then it becomes complicated! At 45/46/47, the choice in #1 is King by
itself, suited AT, and then Ace by itself. Let me abbreviate the
three choices as K/AT/A. For #2, the choice is K/A/AT. For #3, it is
AT/K/A. The difference in EV at these steps between the choices is in
the third decimal place.
I admit the theoretical difference between the strategies. One can
define a Risk Function, differentiate it to find the maxima and
minima, and declare the result as the optimal solution. Change the
Risk Function definition, you get a different maxima and minima. Fine
for theoretical purposes.
But these are strategies proposed to be adopted for the two/three
purposes defined. When they make no practical difference in the
outcome, which seems to me to be the case, what is their raison
d'être? These are like three normal distributions with a huge
overlap, with the means ever so slightly separated. It is impossible
to say which distribution a given sample belongs to.
In a practical situation, there is no difference in outcomes between
the two. It is as if I am arguing that it is possible to place 998
angels on the head of a pin, and you are saying, no, it should be
possible to place 998.5!
Optimal strategies, when derived mathematically, sometimes surprise
subject matter experts. But when they ponder over them, they see the
logic behind the strategy, in an aha moment. Thus, the strategies,
even if computer generated, must make intuitive sense; at least when
you try hard! Conceding that there must be a method to this madness,
I request anybody here who can look at the broad picture, and
recognize the forest from the trees, to explain how the little tweaks
present in the strategies take them along their chosen paths.
I am placing the Strategy Comparison (Excel Worksheet) in the files
section. I have very carefully formatted it so that bulk of the
information should be printed on two landscape pages. You can ignore
the 3rd and 4th pages.
PS: A question for the Ecel friendly and mathematically unchallenged.
Take the range of cells C6:C14 and D6:D14. Shouldn't the sumproduct
come out to the number given in C3? I am getting a considerably
higher number (in cell F15). Same thing for the other two cases.
Would this be due to round-off errors in the range of numbers?
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "murphyfields" <jkludge@...> wrote: