A friend was trying to calculate an appropriate bankroll to play n-
play JOB (n-play because he's open on how many hands to play - it's a
50-play machine - but he was thinking in terms of playing 16-20
hands) with 0.5% CB. The ROR formulas result in very large required
bankroll numbers because the game is only 0.04% positive, thus you
must have a large enough bankroll to survive a substantial chance of
ruin out in the millionth-plus hand, presumably. The purpose of the
play is to amass contest points which might add another 1% EV to the
game, so one approach is to consider that value as CB and run the
formulas with a 101.04% EV. However, the contest value is extrememly
iffy and what my friend really wants to know is the potential
downside cash loss over the course of the contest. Would it not be
better to calculate a ROR with the actual 0.04% cash edge and a time
constraint, say 200,000 hands? Is there a formula that will calculate
ROR over x hands or is a simulation the only way to do it?
Steve Jacobs - real life ROR question
"A friend was trying to calculate an appropriate bankroll to play n-
play JOB (n-play because he's open on how many hands to play - it's a
50-play machine - but he was thinking in terms of playing 16-20
hands) with 0.5% CB. The ROR formulas result in very large required
bankroll numbers because the game is only 0.04% positive, thus you
must have a large enough bankroll to survive a substantial chance of
ruin out in the millionth-plus hand, presumably. The purpose of the
play is to amass contest points which might add another 1% EV to the
game, so one approach is to consider that value as CB and run the
formulas with a 101.04% EV. However, the contest value is extrememly
iffy and what my friend really wants to know is the potential
downside cash loss over the course of the contest."
I hope your "friend" used the correct "variance" input value in his
calculations to reflect the covariance of the N-play game. Too
often, people put in the wrong input, only to find out after the
fact the swings were a lot worse than they had originally expected.
As one friend said to me after playing 100-play 9/6 JOB where you
got a bonus for a quad -- "Never again."
Also, as a rhetorical question (so please don't answer it): How did
your "friend" get the 1% increase in the ev if he doesn't know how
many hands he needed to play ahead of time?
Anyway, good luck in your contest.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "blaw57" <blaw57@y...> wrote:
I would suggest that you go to the Links page of the VPFree database
and study the article on N-play by Jazbo and then go follow the
Wizard of Odds link and read the articles that deal with this
problem. The Wizard's site also has some practice problems to check
your methodology.
A friend was trying to calculate an appropriate bankroll to play n-
play JOB (n-play because he's open on how many hands to play - it's
a
50-play machine - but he was thinking in terms of playing 16-20
hands) with 0.5% CB. The ROR formulas result in very large required
bankroll numbers because the game is only 0.04% positive, thus you
must have a large enough bankroll to survive a substantial chance
of
ruin out in the millionth-plus hand, presumably. The purpose of the
play is to amass contest points which might add another 1% EV to
the
game, so one approach is to consider that value as CB and run the
formulas with a 101.04% EV. However, the contest value is
extrememly
iffy and what my friend really wants to know is the potential
downside cash loss over the course of the contest. Would it not be
better to calculate a ROR with the actual 0.04% cash edge and a
time
constraint, say 200,000 hands? Is there a formula that will
calculate
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "blaw57" <blaw57@y...> wrote:
ROR over x hands or is a simulation the only way to do it?
I don't think it could be treated as CB unless it can be claimed at
any time. It it is like a prize that you only receive by reaching a
certain target bankroll, then the min-risk strategy would maximize
the probability of receiving the prize. I suspect that multiplay increases
RoR (but others have claimed otherwise, and I don't have proof).
···
On Saturday 24 July 2004 12:02 pm, blaw57 wrote:
A friend was trying to calculate an appropriate bankroll to play n-
play JOB (n-play because he's open on how many hands to play - it's a
50-play machine - but he was thinking in terms of playing 16-20
hands) with 0.5% CB. The ROR formulas result in very large required
bankroll numbers because the game is only 0.04% positive, thus you
must have a large enough bankroll to survive a substantial chance of
ruin out in the millionth-plus hand, presumably. The purpose of the
play is to amass contest points which might add another 1% EV to the
game, so one approach is to consider that value as CB and run the
formulas with a 101.04% EV. However, the contest value is extrememly
iffy and what my friend really wants to know is the potential
downside cash loss over the course of the contest. Would it not be
better to calculate a ROR with the actual 0.04% cash edge and a time
constraint, say 200,000 hands? Is there a formula that will calculate
ROR over x hands or is a simulation the only way to do it?
> Would it not be
> better to calculate a ROR with the actual 0.04% cash edge and a
time
> constraint, say 200,000 hands? Is there a formula that will
calculate
> ROR over x hands or is a simulation the only way to do it?
here's how i would do it:
200,000 total hands? so 200,000/50=4000 dealt hands
now find all job dealt hands with cycles of 4000/5 or more:
hand cycle %return
rf 649740 .12%
sf 72193 .07%
4k 4165 .6%
4rf 2777 .66%
assume you don't get any of these
subtract their total %return from your expected %return, that's your
loss rate (session bankroll)
calculate the odds of this happening for one hand:
1- 1/649740 - 1/72193 - 1/4165 - 1/2777 = 0.999384
calculate the odds of this happening for 4000 dealt hands:
0.999384^4000=8.52% and that's your session risk of ruin
···
On Saturday 24 July 2004 12:02 pm, blaw57 wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
> > Would it not be
> > better to calculate a ROR with the actual 0.04% cash edge and a
time
> > constraint, say 200,000 hands? Is there a formula that will
calculate
> > ROR over x hands or is a simulation the only way to do it?here's how i would do it:
200,000 total hands? so 200,000/50=4000 dealt hands
now find all job dealt hands with cycles of 4000/5 or more:
hand cycle %return
rf 649740 .12%
sf 72193 .07%
4k 4165 .6%
4rf 2777 .66%
assume you don't get any of these
subtract their total %return from your expected %return, that's
your
loss rate (session bankroll)
calculate the odds of this happening for one hand:
1- 1/649740 - 1/72193 - 1/4165 - 1/2777 = 0.999384
calculate the odds of this happening for 4000 dealt hands:
0.999384^4000=8.52% and that's your session risk of ruin
Hey, good thinking, iguana. While you were posting that I was writing
up a post to solicit just that type of input, see my "simulation
plan" post nearby. I think this would be a good check on the results
of the sim - they should come close to a number calculated this way
or I should be able to identify and quantify the reason why not (such
as FH/St/Fl not yet fully normalizing and contribution from the rare
hands you exclude).
There are some details I would modify - for example, we'll be using a
50-play machine but not necessarily playing 50 hands, right now the
thought is 16-20 hands - but I see the concept you're proposing and I
can make those changes.
···
> On Saturday 24 July 2004 12:02 pm, blaw57 wrote:
This is rather bogus. This is "probability of not hitting a big hand".
That is a much different concept than the probability of losing your
bankroll.
···
On Sunday 25 July 2004 11:01 pm, nightoftheiguana2000 wrote:
> On Saturday 24 July 2004 12:02 pm, blaw57 wrote:
> > Would it not be
> > better to calculate a ROR with the actual 0.04% cash edge and atime
> > constraint, say 200,000 hands? Is there a formula that will
calculate
> > ROR over x hands or is a simulation the only way to do it?
here's how i would do it:
200,000 total hands? so 200,000/50=4000 dealt hands
now find all job dealt hands with cycles of 4000/5 or more:
hand cycle %return
rf 649740 .12%
sf 72193 .07%
4k 4165 .6%
4rf 2777 .66%
assume you don't get any of these
subtract their total %return from your expected %return, that's your
loss rate (session bankroll)
calculate the odds of this happening for one hand:
1- 1/649740 - 1/72193 - 1/4165 - 1/2777 = 0.999384
calculate the odds of this happening for 4000 dealt hands:
0.999384^4000=8.52% and that's your session risk of ruin
This is rather bogus. This is "probability of not hitting a big
hand".
That is a much different concept than the probability of losing your
bankroll.
Much different concept, yes, but a useful check figure IMHO. Odds are
that over, say, 10,000 deals and 200,000 hands, hitting less than 5
royals, 22 SFs and 473 4OAKs will probably make up the bulk of your
shortfall.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Steve Jacobs <jacobs@x> wrote: