For this Stations promo, I saw that the Mini-Challenge 1 winner for the
$25K prize ended up with 3,223,327 points. I suspect the winner was a
VP player (probably a member of this forum if anyone wants to step
forward), rather than a slot player.
Anyway, looking at the various Station casinos in the database, it
looks like 8/5 Bonus poker is the highest EV game at the $25 level or
higher (the DB indicates that 3 coin $100 is available at Red Rock).
To get this many points at the $25 level requires 25,787 hands which
means the prize was worth 97 cents a hand or .775%. Adding this to the
base EV for 8/5 BP gives an EV of 99.945%, which is still negative and
gives an expected overall loss of ~$1800.
Does a negative EV still make this promotion worth going after? or did
I miss a better game listed in the database, or is there a better game
that isn't listed? or did it take way more points than someone
anticipated to win the $25K? or do the other benefits associated with
earning this many points at Stations more than make up for the expected
loss?
Last year when Stations ran a similar promotion (for lower prize
amounts of $5K for top 20 point amounts), Bob Dancer did a column for
CasinoGaming.com (3/13/2007) where he did an analysis of the promotion
indicated that there are many factors to consider (Bob listed 8).
Being a lowly flea, this promo is way above my bankroll. Just
wondering how others would look at it.
Bill
