vpFREE2 Forums

Startling VP stastitics

#1

I live in Las Vegas and play video poker every day. I play about 4 hours a day and only play games that the TR (Total Return) plus cash back and free play is over 100%. From the beginning of the year through March 13th I did $463963 coin in. Of this 97.3% was quarter single line and multiline play. The balance was $5151 on dollar 8/5 bonus progressive and $10176 50 cents NSUD. Here are the games I play : FPDW, 9/6 Jacks, 8/5 Bonus progressive, 9/6 STP( 3play & 5 play), 9/6 DDBon progressive, NSUD, 9/7 DBon Progressive, 9/6 10cents QQ (3 play & 5 play) and Super Aces. When I played the 8/5 bonus quarter progressives or the 9/7 Dbon progressive, I would only play if their TR were over 100.5%. The 9/6 DDbon progressive would never reach this T.R so what little play I did on DDB was barely above 100%. The average TR of all these games is about 100.07%. My actual return for the period from Jan 1 to March was 96.32%. This resulted in a total loss of $17472. This was against the game only and does not include cash back or free play. During that period I earned $5683 in cash/free play. I got 3 Royal flush during that period for $1000, $1000, $1636. I was short by about 5.5 royal flushes.

            Why, you may ask did I provide these stats through March 13? Because on March 14th I got a 25 cent progressive royal for $2211, followed by another quarter royal on March 18th for $2228, and another quarter royal on March 19th for $2029. For 10 weeks I was on the far-left side of the win/loss bell curve, maybe now I can work my way to the right side.

            Below are some more details of the stats during my loosing streak. What I learned from preparing these stats is that the multi line games that require the extra coin, like STP and QQ are a killer to your bank roll, if you don't get any big hits. Going forward I think I will go back to basic and cut down on the extra coin games and stick more to the higher TR games.

     Maximum
     Dollars
     Percent of
     Dollars
     Percent
     
      Game
     Tot Return
     Coin In
     total play
     lost
     Lost
     
      FPDW
     100.77%
     88643.75
     19.11%
     -2493.75
     -2.81%
     
      9/6 Jacks
     99.54%
     78587.5
     16.94%
     -1718.4
     -2.19%
     
      8/5 BP prog
     100.50%
     42822.5
     9.23%
     -1825
     -4.26%
     
      9/6jackSTP
     99.82%
     155673
     33.55%
     -6534
     -4.20%
     
      DDBn prog
     100.20%
     4296.25
     0.93%
     -158.25
     -3.68%
     
      NSUD
     99.73%
     38028.75
     8.20%
     -2068.25
     -5.44%
     
      DBn prog
     100.50%
     43125
     9.29%
     -1531
     -3.55%
     
      9/6 QQ 10c
     99.60%
     9534.6
     2.06%
     -795
     -8.34%
     
      Super Aces
     99.94%
     3251.25
     0.70%
     -348.75
     -10.73%
     
      TOTAL
     
     463962.6
     1
     -17472.4
     -3.77%
     
Randi.d

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

Thanks for sharing the stats. I've had similar start to years as well. I normally do 1 million coin-in primary on quarters and looking back over the years I can find similar periods of time when I get roughly the same stats (not quite as bad as yours). Even at a million coin in for quarters you still aren't guaranteed anything.

What I did find useful is that by keeping these stats I have twice found stategy errors in games (i.e. Errors I had been making more often than I thought) which lead to more practice and slowing down to avoid these errors.

One time played 300,000 hands of FPDW without a royal. It's a bitch but it happens.

Glad to see that things seem to be straighting out recently though.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "randi.d" <randi66@...> wrote:

            I live in Las Vegas and play video poker every day. I play about 4 hours a day and only play games that the TR (Total Return) plus cash back and free play is over 100%. From the beginning of the year through March 13th I did $463963 coin in. Of this 97.3% was quarter single line and multiline play. The balance was $5151 on dollar 8/5 bonus progressive and $10176 50 cents NSUD. Here are the games I play : FPDW, 9/6 Jacks, 8/5 Bonus progressive, 9/6 STP( 3play & 5 play), 9/6 DDBon progressive, NSUD, 9/7 DBon Progressive, 9/6 10cents QQ (3 play & 5 play) and Super Aces. When I played the 8/5 bonus quarter progressives or the 9/7 Dbon progressive, I would only play if their TR were over 100.5%. The 9/6 DDbon progressive would never reach this T.R so what little play I did on DDB was barely above 100%. The average TR of all these games is about 100.07%. My actual return for the period from Jan 1 to March was 96.32%. This resulted in a total loss of $17472. This was against the game only and does not include cash back or free play. During that period I earned $5683 in cash/free play. I got 3 Royal flush during that period for $1000, $1000, $1636. I was short by about 5.5 royal flushes.

            Why, you may ask did I provide these stats through March 13? Because on March 14th I got a 25 cent progressive royal for $2211, followed by another quarter royal on March 18th for $2228, and another quarter royal on March 19th for $2029. For 10 weeks I was on the far-left side of the win/loss bell curve, maybe now I can work my way to the right side.

            Below are some more details of the stats during my loosing streak. What I learned from preparing these stats is that the multi line games that require the extra coin, like STP and QQ are a killer to your bank roll, if you don't get any big hits. Going forward I think I will go back to basic and cut down on the extra coin games and stick more to the higher TR games.

     Maximum
     Dollars
     Percent of
     Dollars
     Percent
     
      Game
     Tot Return
     Coin In
     total play
     lost
     Lost
     
      FPDW
     100.77%
     88643.75
     19.11%
     -2493.75
     -2.81%
     
      9/6 Jacks
     99.54%
     78587.5
     16.94%
     -1718.4
     -2.19%
     
      8/5 BP prog
     100.50%
     42822.5
     9.23%
     -1825
     -4.26%
     
      9/6jackSTP
     99.82%
     155673
     33.55%
     -6534
     -4.20%
     
      DDBn prog
     100.20%
     4296.25
     0.93%
     -158.25
     -3.68%
     
      NSUD
     99.73%
     38028.75
     8.20%
     -2068.25
     -5.44%
     
      DBn prog
     100.50%
     43125
     9.29%
     -1531
     -3.55%
     
      9/6 QQ 10c
     99.60%
     9534.6
     2.06%
     -795
     -8.34%
     
      Super Aces
     99.94%
     3251.25
     0.70%
     -348.75
     -10.73%
     
      TOTAL
     
     463962.6
     1
     -17472.4
     -3.77%
     
Randi.d

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

2 very beilevable and credible reports. More reasons why people should realize that in 2010 there is NO such thing as a "pro".

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kiwiboy4921" <waynes@...> wrote:

Thanks for sharing the stats. I've had similar start to years as well. I normally do 1 million coin-in primary on quarters and looking back over the years I can find similar periods of time when I get roughly the same stats (not quite as bad as yours). Even at a million coin in for quarters you still aren't guaranteed anything.

What I did find useful is that by keeping these stats I have twice found stategy errors in games (i.e. Errors I had been making more often than I thought) which lead to more practice and slowing down to avoid these errors.

One time played 300,000 hands of FPDW without a royal. It's a bitch but it happens.

Glad to see that things seem to be straighting out recently though.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "randi.d" <randi66@> wrote:
>
> I live in Las Vegas and play video poker every day. I play about 4 hours a day and only play games that the TR (Total Return) plus cash back and free play is over 100%. From the beginning of the year through March 13th I did $463963 coin in. Of this 97.3% was quarter single line and multiline play. The balance was $5151 on dollar 8/5 bonus progressive and $10176 50 cents NSUD. Here are the games I play : FPDW, 9/6 Jacks, 8/5 Bonus progressive, 9/6 STP( 3play & 5 play), 9/6 DDBon progressive, NSUD, 9/7 DBon Progressive, 9/6 10cents QQ (3 play & 5 play) and Super Aces. When I played the 8/5 bonus quarter progressives or the 9/7 Dbon progressive, I would only play if their TR were over 100.5%. The 9/6 DDbon progressive would never reach this T.R so what little play I did on DDB was barely above 100%. The average TR of all these games is about 100.07%. My actual return for the period from Jan 1 to March was 96.32%. This resulted in a total loss of $17472. This was against the game only and does not include cash back or free play. During that period I earned $5683 in cash/free play. I got 3 Royal flush during that period for $1000, $1000, $1636. I was short by about 5.5 royal flushes.
>
> Why, you may ask did I provide these stats through March 13? Because on March 14th I got a 25 cent progressive royal for $2211, followed by another quarter royal on March 18th for $2228, and another quarter royal on March 19th for $2029. For 10 weeks I was on the far-left side of the win/loss bell curve, maybe now I can work my way to the right side.
>
> Below are some more details of the stats during my loosing streak. What I learned from preparing these stats is that the multi line games that require the extra coin, like STP and QQ are a killer to your bank roll, if you don't get any big hits. Going forward I think I will go back to basic and cut down on the extra coin games and stick more to the higher TR games.
>
>
> Maximum
> Dollars
> Percent of
> Dollars
> Percent
>
> Game
> Tot Return
> Coin In
> total play
> lost
> Lost
>
> FPDW
> 100.77%
> 88643.75
> 19.11%
> -2493.75
> -2.81%
>
> 9/6 Jacks
> 99.54%
> 78587.5
> 16.94%
> -1718.4
> -2.19%
>
> 8/5 BP prog
> 100.50%
> 42822.5
> 9.23%
> -1825
> -4.26%
>
> 9/6jackSTP
> 99.82%
> 155673
> 33.55%
> -6534
> -4.20%
>
> DDBn prog
> 100.20%
> 4296.25
> 0.93%
> -158.25
> -3.68%
>
> NSUD
> 99.73%
> 38028.75
> 8.20%
> -2068.25
> -5.44%
>
> DBn prog
> 100.50%
> 43125
> 9.29%
> -1531
> -3.55%
>
> 9/6 QQ 10c
> 99.60%
> 9534.6
> 2.06%
> -795
> -8.34%
>
> Super Aces
> 99.94%
> 3251.25
> 0.70%
> -348.75
> -10.73%
>
> TOTAL
>
> 463962.6
> 1
> -17472.4
> -3.77%
>
>
>
> Randi.d
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>

#4

<< I live in Las Vegas and play video poker every day. I play about 4 hours a day and only play games that the TR (Total Return) plus cash back and free play is over 100%>>

Thanx, Randi.d, for posting your results. It really reinforces the fact that video poker is so very very volatile, a fact that even we long-time advantage players never really "get used to."

It also points to the fact that we all must adjust to the "brave new world" of VP. We are all having to play with less of an advantage than we used to. That means we will need bigger bankrolls if we want to stay at the same denominational levels. If we can't accumulate bigger bankrolls, we will need need to drop down in denomination. One's ROR (risk of ruin) is SO SO much greater when you have only a .5% advantage than when you may have used to play with a 1.5% advantage. And for those who are playing with only a .1% or .2% advantage (total return, including BB, CB, etc.) - and I know many who are doing that - I don't think most of them realize the danger they are in.

It isn't enough just to be playing "with an advantage." You must realistically look at your bankroll and determine if it is big enough to take you through the long losing streaks that WILL come. And even if you have an adequate financial bankroll, sometimes the psychological bankroll gets depleted too fast for healthy emotional health when you are playing with too thin an edge!!!!!

···

________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

#5

My apologies to all if you received a deluge of empty mail from me. A "little demon" was playing with my blackberry ):

···

-----Original Message-----
From: "kiwiboy4921" <waynes@kiwiplan.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Mar 2010 13:01:13
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Startling VP stastitics

Thanks for sharing the stats. I've had similar start to years as well. I normally do 1 million coin-in primary on quarters and looking back over the years I can find similar periods of time when I get roughly the same stats (not quite as bad as yours). Even at a million coin in for quarters you still aren't guaranteed anything.

What I did find useful is that by keeping these stats I have twice found stategy errors in games (i.e. Errors I had been making more often than I thought) which lead to more practice and slowing down to avoid these errors.

One time played 300,000 hands of FPDW without a royal. It's a bitch but it happens.

Glad to see that things seem to be straighting out recently though.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "randi.d" <randi66@...> wrote:

            I live in Las Vegas and play video poker every day. I play about 4 hours a day and only play games that the TR (Total Return) plus cash back and free play is over 100%. From the beginning of the year through March 13th I did $463963 coin in. Of this 97.3% was quarter single line and multiline play. The balance was $5151 on dollar 8/5 bonus progressive and $10176 50 cents NSUD. Here are the games I play : FPDW, 9/6 Jacks, 8/5 Bonus progressive, 9/6 STP( 3play & 5 play), 9/6 DDBon progressive, NSUD, 9/7 DBon Progressive, 9/6 10cents QQ (3 play & 5 play) and Super Aces. When I played the 8/5 bonus quarter progressives or the 9/7 Dbon progressive, I would only play if their TR were over 100.5%. The 9/6 DDbon progressive would never reach this T.R so what little play I did on DDB was barely above 100%. The average TR of all these games is about 100.07%. My actual return for the period from Jan 1 to March was 96.32%. This resulted in a total loss of $17472. This was against the game only and does not include cash back or free play. During that period I earned $5683 in cash/free play. I got 3 Royal flush during that period for $1000, $1000, $1636. I was short by about 5.5 royal flushes.

            Why, you may ask did I provide these stats through March 13? Because on March 14th I got a 25 cent progressive royal for $2211, followed by another quarter royal on March 18th for $2228, and another quarter royal on March 19th for $2029. For 10 weeks I was on the far-left side of the win/loss bell curve, maybe now I can work my way to the right side.

            Below are some more details of the stats during my loosing streak. What I learned from preparing these stats is that the multi line games that require the extra coin, like STP and QQ are a killer to your bank roll, if you don't get any big hits. Going forward I think I will go back to basic and cut down on the extra coin games and stick more to the higher TR games.

     Maximum
     Dollars
     Percent of
     Dollars
     Percent
     
      Game
     Tot Return
     Coin In
     total play
     lost
     Lost
     
      FPDW
     100.77%
     88643.75
     19.11%
     -2493.75
     -2.81%
     
      9/6 Jacks
     99.54%
     78587.5
     16.94%
     -1718.4
     -2.19%
     
      8/5 BP prog
     100.50%
     42822.5
     9.23%
     -1825
     -4.26%
     
      9/6jackSTP
     99.82%
     155673
     33.55%
     -6534
     -4.20%
     
      DDBn prog
     100.20%
     4296.25
     0.93%
     -158.25
     -3.68%
     
      NSUD
     99.73%
     38028.75
     8.20%
     -2068.25
     -5.44%
     
      DBn prog
     100.50%
     43125
     9.29%
     -1531
     -3.55%
     
      9/6 QQ 10c
     99.60%
     9534.6
     2.06%
     -795
     -8.34%
     
      Super Aces
     99.94%
     3251.25
     0.70%
     -348.75
     -10.73%
     
      TOTAL
     
     463962.6
     1
     -17472.4
     -3.77%
     
Randi.d

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#6

From: mike <melbedewy1226@hotmail.com>

2 very beilevable and credible reports. More reasons
why people should realize that in 2010 there is NO such
thing as a "pro".

···

--- On Sun, 3/21/10, mike <melbedewy1226@hotmail.com> wrote:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Thank you for that fully reaserched and documented piece. It is amazing how you are able to take a look at the finances and playing habits of everyone in the world and come out with this earth shattering conclusion. Albert Einstein would be very impressed. The rest? not so much. STFU

Jigger
"Deja Moo: The feeling that you've heard this
bullshit before."

"I will always cherish the initial misconceptions
I had about you."

"The more you run over a dead cat, the flatter it
gets."

"No sense being pessimistic. It wouldn't work anyway."

"You sound reasonable ... Time to up my medication."

"I'll try being nicer if you'll try being smarter."

"I see you've set aside this special time to humiliate yourself in public."

#7

Not sure why this proves there is no such thing as a pro. It just proves that VP is probably more violatile than people think.

I've had winning years every year since 2000. The last 3 have been the most profitable. Not bad for a part timer (I have a full time 50 hour a week job as well).

Personally since the reduction of easy playing oppertunities I've been forced to research and scout more than I could ever be bothered to do in the good old days where positive machines were everywhere. By doing this I have found some great opportunities.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mike" <melbedewy1226@...> wrote:

2 very beilevable and credible reports. More reasons why people should realize that in 2010 there is NO such thing as a "pro".
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kiwiboy4921" <waynes@> wrote:
>
> Thanks for sharing the stats. I've had similar start to years as well. I normally do 1 million coin-in primary on quarters and looking back over the years I can find similar periods of time when I get roughly the same stats (not quite as bad as yours). Even at a million coin in for quarters you still aren't guaranteed anything.
>
> What I did find useful is that by keeping these stats I have twice found stategy errors in games (i.e. Errors I had been making more often than I thought) which lead to more practice and slowing down to avoid these errors.
>
> One time played 300,000 hands of FPDW without a royal. It's a bitch but it happens.
>
> Glad to see that things seem to be straighting out recently though.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "randi.d" <randi66@> wrote:
> >
> > I live in Las Vegas and play video poker every day. I play about 4 hours a day and only play games that the TR (Total Return) plus cash back and free play is over 100%. From the beginning of the year through March 13th I did $463963 coin in. Of this 97.3% was quarter single line and multiline play. The balance was $5151 on dollar 8/5 bonus progressive and $10176 50 cents NSUD. Here are the games I play : FPDW, 9/6 Jacks, 8/5 Bonus progressive, 9/6 STP( 3play & 5 play), 9/6 DDBon progressive, NSUD, 9/7 DBon Progressive, 9/6 10cents QQ (3 play & 5 play) and Super Aces. When I played the 8/5 bonus quarter progressives or the 9/7 Dbon progressive, I would only play if their TR were over 100.5%. The 9/6 DDbon progressive would never reach this T.R so what little play I did on DDB was barely above 100%. The average TR of all these games is about 100.07%. My actual return for the period from Jan 1 to March was 96.32%. This resulted in a total loss of $17472. This was against the game only and does not include cash back or free play. During that period I earned $5683 in cash/free play. I got 3 Royal flush during that period for $1000, $1000, $1636. I was short by about 5.5 royal flushes.
> >
> > Why, you may ask did I provide these stats through March 13? Because on March 14th I got a 25 cent progressive royal for $2211, followed by another quarter royal on March 18th for $2228, and another quarter royal on March 19th for $2029. For 10 weeks I was on the far-left side of the win/loss bell curve, maybe now I can work my way to the right side.
> >
> > Below are some more details of the stats during my loosing streak. What I learned from preparing these stats is that the multi line games that require the extra coin, like STP and QQ are a killer to your bank roll, if you don't get any big hits. Going forward I think I will go back to basic and cut down on the extra coin games and stick more to the higher TR games.
> >
> >
> > Maximum
> > Dollars
> > Percent of
> > Dollars
> > Percent
> >
> > Game
> > Tot Return
> > Coin In
> > total play
> > lost
> > Lost
> >
> > FPDW
> > 100.77%
> > 88643.75
> > 19.11%
> > -2493.75
> > -2.81%
> >
> > 9/6 Jacks
> > 99.54%
> > 78587.5
> > 16.94%
> > -1718.4
> > -2.19%
> >
> > 8/5 BP prog
> > 100.50%
> > 42822.5
> > 9.23%
> > -1825
> > -4.26%
> >
> > 9/6jackSTP
> > 99.82%
> > 155673
> > 33.55%
> > -6534
> > -4.20%
> >
> > DDBn prog
> > 100.20%
> > 4296.25
> > 0.93%
> > -158.25
> > -3.68%
> >
> > NSUD
> > 99.73%
> > 38028.75
> > 8.20%
> > -2068.25
> > -5.44%
> >
> > DBn prog
> > 100.50%
> > 43125
> > 9.29%
> > -1531
> > -3.55%
> >
> > 9/6 QQ 10c
> > 99.60%
> > 9534.6
> > 2.06%
> > -795
> > -8.34%
> >
> > Super Aces
> > 99.94%
> > 3251.25
> > 0.70%
> > -348.75
> > -10.73%
> >
> > TOTAL
> >
> > 463962.6
> > 1
> > -17472.4
> > -3.77%
> >
> >
> >
> > Randi.d
> >
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>

#8

Although I recognize what is happening to video poker, I have always thought that no matter how bad it gets that one would still be able to find good plays for quarters, and if I were of retirement age that would be an ok way to spend my time or supplement my life. But what scares me now more than anything, more than the state of video poker, is the very real possibility in my mind that when I am of that age, a quarter will not be a quarter. If we do face staggering inflation because of the huge amounts of paper money being pumped into circulation, or even "hyperinflation" what would grinding out $50 a day at quarter machines mean? It might be like playing for 5-cents means now, essentially nothing. Of course, if we have hyperinflation, I guess video poker is the last thing we'll be worrying about. Probably not a good topic to bring up on VPFree, but personally, I am scared to death of what our country's future is going to look like.

-BB

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@...> wrote:

It also points to the fact that we all must adjust to the "brave new world"
of VP. We are all having to play with less of an advantage than we used to.

#9

"the very real possibility in my mind that when
I am of that age, a quarter will not be a quarter" When we all are of a certain it won't matter what a quarter is worth or how many you have. I enjoy video poker , but I also like to go to the library or doing a lot of other things that I did not have time for before retirement. If fear causes much concern over your financial security, never retire. Video poker as a income producer now might be a little over sold.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bobbartop" <bobbartop@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jean Scott" <queenofcomps@> wrote:
>

>
> It also points to the fact that we all must adjust to the "brave new world"
> of VP. We are all having to play with less of an advantage than we used to.
>

Although I recognize what is happening to video poker, I have always thought that no matter how bad it gets that one would still be able to find good plays for quarters, and if I were of retirement age that would be an ok way to spend my time or supplement my life. But what scares me now more than anything, more than the state of video poker, is the very real possibility in my mind that when I am of that age, a quarter will not be a quarter. If we do face staggering inflation because of the huge amounts of paper money being pumped into circulation, or even "hyperinflation" what would grinding out $50 a day at quarter machines mean? It might be like playing for 5-cents means now, essentially nothing. Of course, if we have hyperinflation, I guess video poker is the last thing we'll be worrying about. Probably not a good topic to bring up on VPFree, but personally, I am scared to death of what our country's future is going to look like.

-BB

#10

a little blunt but it hits the spot :slight_smile:

Thank you for that fully researched and documented piece. It is amazing how you are able to take a look at the finances and playing habits of everyone in the world and come out with this earth shattering conclusion. Albert >Einstein would be very impressed. The rest? not so much. STFU

Jigger
"Deja Moo: The feeling that you've heard this

bullshit

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--- On Sun, 3/21/10, Jigger Woodruff <bayfieldkent@yahoo.com> wrote: