vpFREE2 Forums

Starting hands that result in RF

#1

I looked around for a while, but can't seem to find this posted anywhere.

I'm familiar with the math for the likelihood of getting a RF holding 4 cards (1 in 47), 3 cards (1 in 1081), etc. And I am familiar with the RF cycle representing the overall frequency.

What proportion of RF results come from the various starting positions?

Example: For 9/6 JoB, what proportion of RF results come from holding RF4, RF3, RF2, RF1, etc?

Do 62% of Royals come from being dealt four to a royal? 21% come from being dealt 3 to a royal? etc?

Thanks in advance. Doubly so if there is a really obvious link I should have found before. :slight_smile:

#2

I don't have your answer but I did see this statistic somewhere. However I can't remember where. I do remember tho the highest frequency of royals comes from 3 to a royal due to the much higher occurance of that dealt hand. Second was 4 to a royal then 2RF then 1RF.

···

Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 26, 2012, at 11:08 AM, "runningfrog88" <pittstj@gmail.com> wrote:

I looked around for a while, but can't seem to find this posted anywhere.

I'm familiar with the math for the likelihood of getting a RF holding 4 cards (1 in 47), 3 cards (1 in 1081), etc. And I am familiar with the RF cycle representing the overall frequency.

What proportion of RF results come from the various starting positions?

Example: For 9/6 JoB, what proportion of RF results come from holding RF4, RF3, RF2, RF1, etc?

Do 62% of Royals come from being dealt four to a royal? 21% come from being dealt 3 to a royal? etc?

Thanks in advance. Doubly so if there is a really obvious link I should have found before. :slight_smile:

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

5-Card has information on this subject. There is also a lot of other great vp information in his site.
   http://www.videopokerhelp.net/odds.htm

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "runningfrog88" <pittstj@...> wrote:

I looked around for a while, but can't seem to find this posted anywhere.

#4

Len Fromm in one of his early books had a chapter titled
"Where do Royals Come From?

My notes from that book, plus my own analysis,

show the following for 69JoB

RF5 1 in 649,740 deals 6% of all royals
RF4 1 in 47 draws 31% " " "
RF3 1 in 1,061 " 41% " " "
RF2 1 in 16215 " 21% " " "
RF1 1 in 511K " 1% " " "
Razgu 1 in 400k " 0.3% " " "
This assumes correct strategy for a 4,000 coin royal.
Correct strategy on progressives generally means playing more
RF3, RF2 hands. thus increasing their frequency.

That's the theory based on the "long term".

In real life I have 68 royals (and counting) in casinos.
That represents about 3 million hands.

According to the theory I should have been dealt 1/16 of these.
How many dealt royals can I claim?

Only 1 of 68.

When the heck does the "long term" arrive??

Brian

···

________________________________
From: runningfrog88 <pittstj@gmail.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, November 26, 2012 11:08:33 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Starting hands that result in RF

I looked around for a while, but can't seem to find this posted anywhere.

I'm familiar with the math for the likelihood of getting a RF holding 4 cards (1 in 47), 3 cards (1 in 1081), etc. And I am familiar with the RF cycle representing the overall frequency.

What proportion of RF results come from the various starting positions?

Example: For 9/6 JoB, what proportion of RF results come from holding RF4, RF3, RF2, RF1, etc?

Do 62% of Royals come from being dealt four to a royal? 21% come from being dealt 3 to a royal? etc?

Thanks in advance. Doubly so if there is a really obvious link I should have found before. :slight_smile:

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

<<In real life I have 68 royals (and counting) in casinos.
That represents about 3 million hands.

According to the theory I should have been dealt 1/16 of these.
How many dealt royals can I claim?

Only 1 of 68.

When the heck does the "long term" arrive??>>

Do you ever play multi-line? You're only down one dealt royal on a triple-play. That's not too aberrant.

Cogno

#6

Just to clarify this, and clean up the fat-fingering

RF5 1 in 649,740 deals 6% of all royals
RF4 1 in 47 draws 31% of all royals
RF3 1 in 1,081 draws 41% of all royals
RF2 1 in 16,215 draws 21% of all royals
RF1 1 in 511,000 HANDS 1% of all royals
RF0 1 in 400,000 draws 0.3%

···

________________________________
From: BLavoie <blavoie46@yahoo.com>
To: "vpFREE@yahoogroups.com" <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, November 27, 2012 6:25:17 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Starting hands that result in RF

Len Fromm in one of his early books had a chapter titled
"Where do Royals Come From?

My notes from that book, plus my own analysis,

show the following for 69JoB

RF5 1 in 649,740 deals 6% of all royals
RF4 1 in 47 draws 31% " " "
RF3 1 in 1,061 " 41% " " "
RF2 1 in 16215 " 21% " " "
RF1 1 in 511K " 1% " " "
Razgu 1 in 400k " 0.3% " " "
This assumes correct strategy for a 4,000 coin royal.
Correct strategy on progressives generally means playing more
RF3, RF2 hands. thus increasing their frequency.

That's the theory based on the "long term".

In real life I have 68 royals (and counting) in casinos.
That represents about 3 million hands.

According to the theory I should have been dealt 1/16 of these.
How many dealt royals can I claim?

Only 1 of 68.

When the heck does the "long term" arrive??

Brian

________________________________
From: runningfrog88 <pittstj@gmail.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, November 26, 2012 11:08:33 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Starting hands that result in RF

I looked around for a while, but can't seem to find this posted anywhere.

I'm familiar with the math for the likelihood of getting a RF holding 4 cards (1 in 47), 3 cards (1 in 1081), etc. And I am familiar with the RF cycle representing the overall frequency.

What proportion of RF results come from the various starting positions?

Example: For 9/6 JoB, what proportion of RF results come from holding RF4, RF3, RF2, RF1, etc?

Do 62% of Royals come from being dealt four to a royal? 21% come from being dealt 3 to a royal? etc?

Thanks in advance. Doubly so if there is a really obvious link I should have found before. :slight_smile:

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#7

BLavoie <blavoie46@...> wrote:

That's the theory based on the "long term".

In real life I have 68 royals (and counting) in casinos.
That represents about 3 million hands.

According to the theory I should have been dealt 1/16 of these.
How many dealt royals can I claim?

Only 1 of 68.

When the heck does the "long term" arrive??

IFRC, the "long term" for any specific event is around 20 such expected events.

FWI, I'm only at a little above 40 lifetime single line royals and have 4 dealt under my belt. 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2001. The other 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2011.

- H.

#8

For my wife, the long term was 18 years. Until March of this year, she had never been dealt a Royal. Since March, she's been dealt three of them; two on the same machine. I've also been dealt three over that same time span (with several years between each hit). Fortunately, two of these were on 10-play (nickel) machines, so I "earned" 2K each.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Cogno Scienti <cognoscienti@...> wrote:

<<In real life I have 68 royals (and counting) in casinos.
That represents about 3 million hands.

According to the theory I should have been dealt 1/16 of these.
How many dealt royals can I claim?

Only 1 of 68.

When the heck does the "long term" arrive??>>

Do you ever play multi-line? You're only down one dealt royal on a triple-play. That's not too aberrant.

Cogno

#9

Maybe 15% of all hands played were 3/5/10 play.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Cogno Scienti <cognoscienti@...> wrote:

<<In real life I have 68 royals (and counting) in casinos.
That represents about 3 million hands.

According to the theory I should have been dealt 1/16 of these.
How many dealt royals can I claim?

Only 1 of 68.

When the heck does the "long term" arrive??>>

Do you ever play multi-line? You're only down one dealt royal on a triple-play. That's not too aberrant.

Cogno

#10

Bet you are looking forward to 2021!!

···

________________________________
vp_wiz <harry.porter said:

IFRC, the "long term" for any specific event is around 20 such expected events.

FWI, I'm only at a little above 40 lifetime single line royals and have 4 dealt under my belt. 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2001. The other 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2011.

- H.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#11

Talking about Dealt Royals...
One of my favorite machines is the Good Times Pay triple play NSUD at the South Point.
This machine has been horrible to me over the last
3 years. I recorded losing 80% of my sessions on the machine, never a royal, and a couple of cycles behind in 4 ducks. Thus stuck about $4000, I began to ask friends ...is this machine fixed ?...its always ice cold ! I had a glimmer of hope 6 months ago, when I left the machine for dinner, came back 2 hours later, and somebody had hit a RF on the machine. To make a long story short, on my last trip to SP , and with only 2 hours before my flight back to NYC, I was playing and as usual, saw my stakes swing down...$300...$250...$200...$150...$100...$50...2 plays left when ...boom...lights flashing....$5000 hand pay. I was dealt a royal flush and 2 of the lines had a 2X multiplier ! Wow...lucky day, finally ahead on these fun machines...alleluia!!
regards...Tom

···

----- Original Message ----- From: "runningfrog88" <pittstj@gmail.com>
To: <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Monday, November 26, 2012 11:08 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Starting hands that result in RF

I looked around for a while, but can't seem to find this posted anywhere.

I'm familiar with the math for the likelihood of getting a RF holding 4 cards (1 in 47), 3 cards (1 in 1081), etc. And I am familiar with the RF cycle representing the overall frequency.

What proportion of RF results come from the various starting positions?

Example: For 9/6 JoB, what proportion of RF results come from holding RF4, RF3, RF2, RF1, etc?

Do 62% of Royals come from being dealt four to a royal? 21% come from being dealt 3 to a royal? etc?

Thanks in advance. Doubly so if there is a really obvious link I should have found before. :slight_smile:

#12

I asked the same question on The Wizard's site and received a very thorough and amazing answer from someone called Crystal Math who is obviously very talented. Here is a link to the thread:

http://tinyurl.com/c9c2wh9

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "runningfrog88" <pittstj@...> wrote:

I looked around for a while, but can't seem to find this posted anywhere.

#13

A belated reply ...

Turns out I didn't need to wait nearly that long (2021); I scored my first multiline dealt RF today ($1 TP)

It was a banner day -- On top of the $12k jackpot, I netted another $3k in wins (plus my promo cash, to boot)!

- H.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Richard Boozer <reboozer@...> wrote:

Bet you are looking forward to 2021!!

________________________________
vp_wiz <harry.porter said:

IFRC, the "long term" for any specific event is around 20 such expected events.

FWI, I'm only at a little above 40 lifetime single line royals and have 4 dealt under my belt. 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2001. The other 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2011.

- H.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#14

Wow! Way to go.

REB

···

________________________________
From: vp_wiz <harry.porter@verizon.net>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2012 12:35 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Starting hands that result in RF

A belated reply ...

Turns out I didn't need to wait nearly that long (2021); I scored my first multiline dealt RF today ($1 TP)

It was a banner day -- On top of the $12k jackpot, I netted another $3k in wins (plus my promo cash, to boot)!

- H.

--- In mailto:vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com, Richard Boozer <reboozer@...> wrote:

Bet you are looking forward to 2021!!

________________________________
vp_wiz <harry.porter said:

IFRC, the "long term" for any specific event is around 20 such expected events.

FWI, I'm only at a little above 40 lifetime single line royals and have 4 dealt under my belt. 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2001. The other 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2011.

- H.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#15

At the risk of being tiresome, I'm stunned to report my 6th dealt RF ... To recount:

2 in 2001
2 in 2011
1 in Dec 2012
and now 1 in Jun 2013.

Since I estimate lifetime play of less than 3 million deals, I'm now running solidly ahead of expectation.

This hit proved to be every bit as memorable as my last dealt hit in December ($1 3-play):

Starting about a year ago, I dipped my toe in the waters of $5 single line play, and have been averaging about 2 hours of play a month. My first $5 RF today arrived with a bang, and came ahead of "expectation" (and with only relatively modest losses incurred to date).

Upon finishing out my session this morning (4+ hrs), I was very pleased to find that the entire win was intact.

- Harry

--- Prior thread below ---

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

A belated reply ...

Turns out I didn't need to wait nearly that long (2021); I scored my first multiline dealt RF today ($1 TP)

It was a banner day -- On top of the $12k jackpot, I netted another $3k in wins (plus my promo cash, to boot)!

- H.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Richard Boozer <reboozer@> wrote:
>
> Bet you are looking forward to 2021!!

> ________________________________
> vp_wiz <harry.porter said:
>
> IFRC, the "long term" for any specific event is around 20 such expected events.
>
> FWI, I'm only at a little above 40 lifetime single line royals and have 4 dealt under my belt. 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2001. The other 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2011.
>
> - H.

#16

Good thing you didn't do it tomorrow at the Revel. That would screw up your chances of getting a rebate!

Very clever of you to hit it a day or two early! Congrats!

Bob

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#17

Congrats Harry! John

···

----- Original Message -----
From: "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@verizon.net>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, June 30, 2013 5:39:01 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Oops! I did it again ...

At the risk of being tiresome, I'm stunned to report my 6th dealt RF ... To recount:

2 in 2001
2 in 2011
1 in Dec 2012
and now 1 in Jun 2013.

Since I estimate lifetime play of less than 3 million deals, I'm now running solidly ahead of expectation.

This hit proved to be every bit as memorable as my last dealt hit in December ($1 3-play):

Starting about a year ago, I dipped my toe in the waters of $5 single line play, and have been averaging about 2 hours of play a month. My first $5 RF today arrived with a bang, and came ahead of "expectation" (and with only relatively modest losses incurred to date).

Upon finishing out my session this morning (4+ hrs), I was very pleased to find that the entire win was intact.

- Harry

--- Prior thread below ---

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com , "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

A belated reply ...

Turns out I didn't need to wait nearly that long (2021); I scored my first multiline dealt RF today ($1 TP)

It was a banner day -- On top of the $12k jackpot, I netted another $3k in wins (plus my promo cash, to boot)!

- H.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com , Richard Boozer <reboozer@> wrote:
>
> Bet you are looking forward to 2021!!

> ________________________________
> vp_wiz <harry.porter said:
>
> IFRC, the "long term" for any specific event is around 20 such expected events.
>
> FWI, I'm only at a little above 40 lifetime single line royals and have 4 dealt under my belt. 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2001. The other 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2011.
>
> - H.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#18

Congrats Harry..Knowing where you live I was curious...

Game played and casino ?

Larry Feldman

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

At the risk of being tiresome, I'm stunned to report my 6th dealt RF ... > Starting about a year ago, I dipped my toe in the waters of $5 single line play, and have been averaging about 2 hours of play a month. My first $5 RF today arrived with a bang, and came ahead of "expectation" (and with only relatively modest losses incurred to date).

#19

FWIW.

I thought that I would update this post. Maybe Harry would not
feel right about doing it.

I believe the $5 dealt royal referred to was his first $5 royal,
but now, not his last. The first was on Sunday, June 30th, and
a few days later he had his second $5 royal. This came by holding
4 spades and receiving the 10 of spades on the draw.

I was on a trip from Phoenix to Cherokee. Harry knew the days that
I would be at Cherokee and there was a slight chance he might also make a short visit on one of those days. To my surprise I looked
up to a voice and it was Harry. We talked a few minutes before he settled in to play at the seat next to me.

After only a few seconds of play, he turn and said "wish me luck".
I did, and the rest is history. He said it was his 14th hand!
I asked him where did he get his royal only a few days earlier.
He said right here at Cherokee and on the same machine. And here
I thought that he picked that machine so he could sit next to me
and visit!

Bob

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

At the risk of being tiresome, I'm stunned to report my 6th dealt RF ... To recount:

2 in 2001
2 in 2011
1 in Dec 2012
and now 1 in Jun 2013.

Since I estimate lifetime play of less than 3 million deals, I'm now running solidly ahead of expectation.

This hit proved to be every bit as memorable as my last dealt hit in December ($1 3-play):

Starting about a year ago, I dipped my toe in the waters of $5 single line play, and have been averaging about 2 hours of play a month. My first $5 RF today arrived with a bang, and came ahead of "expectation" (and with only relatively modest losses incurred to date).

Upon finishing out my session this morning (4+ hrs), I was very pleased to find that the entire win was intact.

- Harry

--- Prior thread below ---

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@> wrote:
>
> A belated reply ...
>
> Turns out I didn't need to wait nearly that long (2021); I scored my first multiline dealt RF today ($1 TP)
>
> It was a banner day -- On top of the $12k jackpot, I netted another $3k in wins (plus my promo cash, to boot)!
>
> - H.
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Richard Boozer <reboozer@> wrote:
> >
> > Bet you are looking forward to 2021!!
>
>
>
> > ________________________________
> > vp_wiz <harry.porter said:
> >
> > IFRC, the "long term" for any specific event is around 20 such expected events.
> >
> > FWI, I'm only at a little above 40 lifetime single line royals and have 4 dealt under my belt. 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2001. The other 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2011.
> >
> > - H.

#20

You've gone and spilled he beans, Bob (now who's gonna lend a sympathetic ear anytime soon should I complain about a run of bad luck! :wink:

It was great to catch up with you Bob ... and very gratifying that you managed to catch a set of deuces during our time at the machine!

Bev and I are looking forward to spending a little more time with you and Marjean on the 7* cruise next month ...

- H.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "futrend" <futrend@...> wrote:

FWIW.

I thought that I would update this post. Maybe Harry would not
feel right about doing it.

I believe the $5 dealt royal referred to was his first $5 royal,
but now, not his last. The first was on Sunday, June 30th, and
a few days later he had his second $5 royal. This came by holding
4 spades and receiving the 10 of spades on the draw.

I was on a trip from Phoenix to Cherokee. Harry knew the days that
I would be at Cherokee and there was a slight chance he might also make a short visit on one of those days. To my surprise I looked
up to a voice and it was Harry. We talked a few minutes before he settled in to play at the seat next to me.

After only a few seconds of play, he turn and said "wish me luck".
I did, and the rest is history. He said it was his 14th hand!
I asked him where did he get his royal only a few days earlier.
He said right here at Cherokee and on the same machine. And here
I thought that he picked that machine so he could sit next to me
and visit!

Bob

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@> wrote:
>
> At the risk of being tiresome, I'm stunned to report my 6th dealt RF ... To recount:
>
> 2 in 2001
> 2 in 2011
> 1 in Dec 2012
> and now 1 in Jun 2013.
>
> Since I estimate lifetime play of less than 3 million deals, I'm now running solidly ahead of expectation.
>
> This hit proved to be every bit as memorable as my last dealt hit in December ($1 3-play):
>
> Starting about a year ago, I dipped my toe in the waters of $5 single line play, and have been averaging about 2 hours of play a month. My first $5 RF today arrived with a bang, and came ahead of "expectation" (and with only relatively modest losses incurred to date).
>
> Upon finishing out my session this morning (4+ hrs), I was very pleased to find that the entire win was intact.
>
> - Harry
>
>
> --- Prior thread below ---
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@> wrote:
> >
> > A belated reply ...
> >
> > Turns out I didn't need to wait nearly that long (2021); I scored my first multiline dealt RF today ($1 TP)
> >
> > It was a banner day -- On top of the $12k jackpot, I netted another $3k in wins (plus my promo cash, to boot)!
> >
> > - H.
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Richard Boozer <reboozer@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Bet you are looking forward to 2021!!
> >
> >
> >
> > > ________________________________
> > > vp_wiz <harry.porter said:
> > >
> > > IFRC, the "long term" for any specific event is around 20 such expected events.
> > >
> > > FWI, I'm only at a little above 40 lifetime single line royals and have 4 dealt under my belt. 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2001. The other 2 occurred within a few months of each other in 2011.
> > >
> > > - H.
>